Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti will square off in the semifinal of the French Open for the 8^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 2:30 pm on Court PHILIPPE-CHATRIER. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.171
Lorenzo Musetti -> 5.3

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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti

This will be the 8^th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti face off. The head to head is 6-1 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 4-1 on clay.

The last time that they played each other, Alcaraz won 6-3 7-6(4) in the semifinal in Rome back in May 2025.

Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti – Rome 16-May-2025

Carlos Alcaraz

Ranked no. 2, Alcaraz reached the semifinal after beating Giulio Zeppieri 6-3 6-4 6-2, Fabian Marozsan 6-1 4-6 6-1 6-2, Damir Dzumhur 6-1 6-3 4-6 6-4, Ben Shelton 7-6(8) 6-3 4-6 6-4 and Tommy Paul 6-0 6-1 6-4.

In the quarter, Carlos had a good straight sets win against Paul (6-0 6-1 6-4). During the match, Alcaraz scored 91 points vs Paul’s 51. Carlos was quite aggressive to blast 38 winners.

Talking about the service games, Alcaraz made 3 aces and he was extremely solid in conceding no double faults. Carlos Alcaraz was exceptionally effective on serve to win 88% (38/43) of his 1st serve and 83% (10/12) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Spaniard broke Paul 6 times after converting 35% of his break points (6/17).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Alcaraz has dropped 3 set in this competition to win 56% of the points he played.

Alcaraz has a fantastic record in the last 8 years having won 80% of his matches (322-81). 20-1 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Alcaraz has a composed161-36 record in the last 8 years on clay.

His best result of the current season was winning the title in Rotterdam where he defeated Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2 and in Carlo where he overcame Lorenzo Musetti in the final 3-6 6-1 6-0 and in Rome where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 7-6(5) 6-1.

Alcaraz has an aggregate 35-5 win-loss record in 2025, 20-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the French Open

Lorenzo Musetti

Ranked no. 7 (career-high), the Italian reached the semifinal after defeating Yannick Hanfmann 7-5 6-2 6-0, Daniel Elahi Galan 6-4 6-0 6-4, Mariano Navone 4-6 6-4 6-3 6-2, Holger Rune 7-5 3-6 6-3 6-2 and Frances Tiafoe 6-2 4-6 7-5 6-2.

In the quarter, Musetti defeated Tiafoe (6-2 4-6 7-5 6-2). During the match Musetti scored 123 points vs Tiafoe’s 98. Musetti was very aggressive to blast 61 winners.

Talking about serving, Musetti scored 8 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Lorenzo Musetti lost the serve once and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Musetti put 70% of his first serves in, winning 81% (61/75) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (16/32) on the 2nd serve. Musetti broke Tiafoe 5 times after converting 45% of his break points (5/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Musetti has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.

The Italian’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in Carlo.

The Italian has a composed 25-7 win-loss record in 2025, 19-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the French Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the 4^th round in 2021 and 2023. See his history

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H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Alcaraz	Musetti
Match played	5	5
Tot Set	18	18
Tot Games	160	165
Pts	589-457	581-462
Total Points	1046	1043
Winners	258	241
%Winners	44%	41%

Both Alcaraz and Musetti played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Carlos Alcaraz conceded 3 sets, while Lorenzo Musetti surrendered 3 sets. Talking about their workload, Alcaraz and Musetti have played the same amount of sets 18. However, Alcaraz played 5 games less than Musetti. The Spaniard scored 258 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, Lorenzo struck 241 winners (41%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Alcaraz	Musetti
Aces	20	26
Avg per match	4	5.2
1st in	361/506	332/499
%1st in	71%	67%
1st pts	258/361	241/332
%1st pts	71%	73%
2nd pts	91/145	93/167
%2nd pts	63%	56%

Alcaraz struck 20 aces (4 per match). Musetti recorded 26 aces (5.2 per match). Alcaraz won 71% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 63% of the points. On the other side, Musetti won 73% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Alcaraz	Musetti
Won	28	31
Converted	28/70	31/64
% Converted	40%	48%
Conceded	27	24
Saved	20	14
% Saved	74%	58%
Times Broken	7	10

Carlos broke his opponents 28 times with a 40% conversion rate. Carlos lost his serve 7 times and he saved 74% of the break points that he conceded. Musetti broke his opponents 31 times with a 48% conversion rate. Musetti conceded his serve 10 times and he saved 58% of the break points that he conceded.

Alcaraz
	R1 Zeppieri	R2 Marozsan	R3 Dzumhur	R4 Shelton	1/4 Paul	Total
Score	6-3 6-4 6-2	6-1 4-6 6-1 6-2	6-1 6-3 4-6 6-4	7-68 6-3 4-6 6-4	6-0 6-1 6-4
Tot Set	3	4	4	4	3	18
Tot Games	27	32	36	42	23	160
pts	98-73	121-84	139-118	140-131	91-51	589-457
Total points	171	205	257	271	142	1046
Winners	44	50	59	67	38	258
%Winners	45%	41%	42%	48%	42%	44%
SERVE
Aces	3	5	4	5	3	20
Double Faults	4	1	5	2	0	12
1st in	57/86	70/92	92/131	99/142	43/55	361/506
% 1st in	66%	76%	70%	70%	78%	71%
1st pts	44/57	50/70	59/92	67/99	38/43	258/361
% 1st pts	77%	71%	64%	68%	88%	71%
2nd pts	17/29	13/22	22/39	29/43	10/12	91/145
% 2nd pts	59%	59%	56%	67%	83%	63%
Breaks
Won	4	8	7	3	6	28
Converted	4/8	8/17	7/21	3/7	6/17	28/70
Converted %	50%	47%	33%	43%	35%	40%
Conceded	3	3	12	9	0	27
Saved	3/3	1/3	9/12	7/9	0/0	20
Saved %	100%	33%	75%	78%	–	57%
Times Broken	0	2	3	2	0	7

Musetti
	R1 Hanfmann	R2 Elahi Galan Riveros	R3 Navone	R4 Rune	1/4 Tiafoe	Total
Score	7-5 6-2 6-0	6-4 6-0 6-4	4-6 6-4 6-3 6-2	7-5 3-6 6-3 6-2	6-2 4-6 7-5 6-2
Tot Set	3	3	4	4	4	18
Tot Games	26	26	37	38	38	165
pts	101-68	94-68	134-113	129-115	123-98	581-462
Total points	169	162	247	244	221	1043
Winners	38	37	52	53	61	241
%Winners	38%	39%	39%	41%	50%	41%
SERVE
Aces	5	6	3	4	8	26
Double Faults	1	0	4	1	3	9
1st in	46/70	57/83	75/115	79/124	75/107	332/499
% 1st in	66%	69%	65%	64%	70%	67%
1st pts	38/46	37/57	52/75	53/79	61/75	241/332
% 1st pts	83%	65%	69%	67%	81%	73%
2nd pts	15/24	19/26	18/40	25/45	16/32	93/167
% 2nd pts	63%	73%	45%	56%	50%	56%
Breaks
Won	6	6	8	6	5	31
Converted	6/13	6/12	8/19	6/9	5/11	31/64
Converted %	46%	50%	42%	67%	45%	48%
Conceded	0	7	9	5	3	24
Saved	0/0	6/7	4/9	2/5	2/3	14
Saved %	–	86%	44%	40%	67%	47%
Times Broken	0	1	5	3	1	10

Tennis Scores – French Open

• Marcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio Zeballos – Ivan Dodig/Orlando LuzDodig/Orlando Luz (6-2 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Hugo Nys/Edouard Roger-VasselinNys/Edouard Roger-Vasselin – Sander Arends/Luke JohnsonArends/Luke Johnson (6-4 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Alexander BublikBublik (6-1 7-5 6-0) – See score progression
• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Alexander ZverevZverev (4-6 6-3 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Joe Salisbury/Neal SkupskiSalisbury/Neal Skupski – Matthew Ebden/John PeersEbden/John Peers (6-7⁴ 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Tommy PaulPaul (6-0 6-1 6-4) – See score progression
• Christian Harrison/Evan KingHarrison/Evan King – Harri Heliovaara/Henry PattenHeliovaara/Henry Patten (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (6-2 4-6 7-5 6-2) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jannik SinnerSinner – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (4-4) – H2H and prediction
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (1-6) – H2H and prediction