Alexander Bublik and Henrique Rocha will face off in the 3^rd round of the French Open for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 4:00 pm on Court 14. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alexander Bublik who should win in 4 sets.

As per the initial odds, Alexander Bublik is the pick to win this match.
Alexander Bublik -> 1.34
Henrique Rocha -> 3.26

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Prediction and head to head Alexander Bublik vs. Henrique Rocha

There is no head to head record between Alexander Bublik and Henrique Rocha since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.

Alexander Bublik

Ranked no. 62, Bublik reached the 3^rd round after defeating James Duckworth 6-2 6-4 6-4 and Alex De Minaur 2-6 2-6 6-4 6-3 6-2.

In the 2^nd round, The Kazakhstani had a tough win against De Minaur to overcome his opponent only in 5 sets (2-6 2-6 6-4 6-3 6-2).During the match, Bublik scored less points (2) than De Minaur. In fact, the world no. 62 won 128 points vs De Minaur’s. That means that Bublik was more focused during the important points. Alexander was quite aggressive to blast 58 winners.

Talking about the service games, Bublik fired 12 aces and he was not very solid on his 2nd serve to score 12 double faults. Alexander Bublik lost the serve 6 times and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Bublik put 61% of his first serves in, winning 73% (58/79) of the points behind his 1st serve and 43% (22/51) on the 2nd serve. The Kazakhstani broke De Minaur 6 times after converting 43% of his break points (6/14).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Kazakhstani has surrendered 2 set in this event to win 53% of the points he played.

Bublik has positive match record in the last 10 years having won 57% of his matches (341-257). 13-5 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Bublik has a composed 54-57 match record in the last years on clay.

His best result of the season was conquering the title the Turin Challenger where he overcame Bu Yunchaokete in the final 6-3 6-3.

Alexander has a compiled 20-15 win-loss record in 2025, 13-5 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the French Open

Henrique Rocha

Ranked no. 200, Rocha got to the 3^rd round after beating Robin Bertrand 7-6(5) 6-2, Tomas Barrios Vera 7-6(1) 6-3, Luca Van Assche 6-3 6-7(1) 7-5, Nikoloz Basilashvili 7-6(0) 2-6 7-6(9) 2-6 6-2 and Jakub Mensik 2-6 1-6 6-4 6-3 6-3.

In the 2^nd round, Henrique had a tough win against Mensik to overcome his opponent only in 5 sets (2-6 1-6 6-4 6-3 6-3).During the match Rocha scored less points (6) than Mensik. In fact, the world no. 62 won 125 points vs Mensik’s. That means that Rocha was more focused during the important points. Rocha was pretty aggressive to blast 54 winners.

Talking about serving, Rocha blasted 7 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Henrique Rocha lost the serve 6 times and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Rocha put 64% of his first serves in, winning 64% (54/85) of the points behind his 1st serve and 52% (25/48) on the 2nd serve. Rocha broke Mensik 6 times after converting 55% of his break points (6/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Portuguese started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 5 set in the tournament to win 51% of the points he played.

Rocha’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in the Tenerife 1 Challenger.

Henrique has an overall 13-12 win-loss record in 2025, 7-7 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the French Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the qualifications in 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Bublik	Rocha
Match played	2	5
Tot Set	8	17
Tot Games	71	170
Pts	232-209	566-534
Total Points	441	1100
Winners	101	215
%Winners	44%	38%

Bublik played 2 matches while Rocha competed in 5 matches. Rocha started his run from the qualifications while Bublik had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Alexander Bublik dropped 2 sets, while Henrique Rocha surrendered 5 sets. Bublik has played 9 set(s) less than Rocha (8 vs 17). Therefore, Bublik played 99 games less than Rocha. Bublik scored 101 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, The Portuguese fired 215 winners (38%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Bublik	Rocha
Aces	28	29
Avg per match	14	5.8
1st in	130/221	314/534
%1st in	59%	59%
1st pts	101/130	215/314
%1st pts	78%	68%
2nd pts	43/91	118/220
%2nd pts	47%	54%

Bublik scored 28 aces (14 per match). Rocha scored 29 aces (5.8 per match). Bublik won 78% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Rocha won 68% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Bublik	Rocha
Won	10	24
Converted	10/23	24/64
% Converted	43%	38%
Conceded	17	47
Saved	11	27
% Saved	65%	57%
Times Broken	6	20

Bublik broke his opponents 10 times with a 43% conversion rate. The Kazakhstani conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 65% of the break points that he conceded. Henrique broke his opponents 24 times with a 38% conversion rate. Henrique conceded his serve 20 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded.

Bublik
	R1 Duckworth	R2 De Minaur	Total
Score	6-2 6-4 6-4	2-6 2-6 6-4 6-3 6-2
Tot Set	3	5	8
Tot Games	28	43	71
pts	104-79	128-130	232-209
Total points	183	258	441
Winners	43	58	101
%Winners	41%	45%	44%
SERVE
Aces	16	12	28
Double Faults	9	12	21
1st in	51/91	79/130	130/221
% 1st in	56%	61%	59%
1st pts	43/51	58/79	101/130
% 1st pts	84%	73%	78%
2nd pts	21/40	22/51	43/91
% 2nd pts	53%	43%	47%
Breaks
Won	4	6	10
Converted	4/9	6/14	10/23
Converted %	44%	43%	43%
Conceded	4	13	17
Saved	4/4	7/13	11
Saved %	100%	54%	77%
Times Broken	0	6	6

Rocha
	Q1 Bertrand	Q2 Tomas Barrios Vera	Q3 Van	R1 Basilashvili	R2 Mensik	Total
Score	7-65 6-2	7-61 6-3	6-3 6-71 7-5	7-60 2-6 7-69 2-6 6-2	2-6 1-6 6-4 6-3 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	3	5	5	17
Tot Games	21	22	34	50	43	170
pts	79-67	80-65	112-100	170-171	125-131	566-534
Total points	146	145	212	341	256	1100
Winners	25	29	40	67	54	215
%Winners	32%	36%	36%	39%	43%	38%
SERVE
Aces	1	4	4	13	7	29
Double Faults	5	2	3	5	6	21
1st in	38/72	37/57	61/113	93/159	85/133	314/534
% 1st in	53%	65%	54%	58%	64%	59%
1st pts	25/38	29/37	40/61	67/93	54/85	215/314
% 1st pts	66%	78%	66%	72%	64%	68%
2nd pts	19/34	10/20	28/52	36/66	25/48	118/220
% 2nd pts	56%	50%	54%	55%	52%	54%
Breaks
Won	4	4	7	3	6	24
Converted	4/10	4/13	7/15	3/15	6/11	24/64
Converted %	40%	31%	47%	20%	55%	38%
Conceded	4	5	15	11	12	47
Saved	2/4	3/5	10/15	6/11	6/12	27
Saved %	50%	60%	67%	55%	50%	141%
Times Broken	2	2	5	5	6	20

Tennis Scores – French Open

• Lorenzo MusettiLorenzo – Mariano NavoneMariano (4-6 6-4 6-3 6-2) – See score progression

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• Andrey RublevRublev – (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander BublikBublik – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Flavio CobolliCobolli (0-0) – H2H and prediction
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• Filip MisolicMisolic – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Mariano NavoneNavone (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Quentin HalysHalys – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Sebastian KordaKorda (3-3) – H2H and prediction
• Nuno BorgesBorges – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Tommy PaulPaul (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Damir DzumhurDzumhur – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-1) – H2H and prediction