Flavio Cobolli and Matteo Arnaldi will square off in the 2nd round of the French Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 3:00 pm on Court 6. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Flavio Cobolli who should win in 5 sets.
As per the initial odds, Flavio Cobolli is the pick to win this match.
Flavio Cobolli -> 1.81
Matteo Arnaldi -> 2
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Prediction and head to head Flavio Cobolli vs. Matteo Arnaldi
This will be the 5th time that Flavio Cobolli and Matteo Arnaldi face off. The head to head is 3-1 for Arnaldi (see full H2H stats), 3-1 on clay.
The last time that they competed against each other, Arnaldi won 6-3 7-6(5) in the 2nd round in Umag back in 2023.
Highlights Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli – Umag 26-July-2023
Flavio Cobolli
17 - 14win/loss
24
24
LWWLWWWWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20-16 | 3-7 | 15-6 | 0-2 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 43-29 | 26-13 | 10-9 | 4-3 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 56-36 | 10-6 | 43-23 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 35-34 | 6-4 | 24-21 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 46-30 | 5-4 | 39-21 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 26 (career-high), the Italian reached the 2nd round after defeating Marin Cilic 6-2 6-1 6-3.
In the 1st round, Flavio had a good straight sets win against Cilic (6-2 6-1 6-3). During the match, Cobolli scored 87 points vs Cilic’s 57. Flavio was very aggressive to blast 34 winners.
Talking about the service games, Cobolli managed to score 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Flavio Cobolli was exceptionally effective on serve to win 74% (34/46) of his 1st serve and 67% (16/24) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Italian broke Cilic 6 times after converting 67% of his break points (6/9).
Cobolli has a winning match record in the last 8 years having won 57% of his matches (207-156). 14-5 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Cobolli has a compiled136-87 win-loss record in the last 8 years on clay.
His best result of the season was winning the title in Bucharest where he beat Sebastian Baez in the final 6-4 6-4 and in Hamburg where he defeated Andrey Rublev in the final 6-2 6-4.
Flavio has an aggregate 17-14 win-loss record in 2025, 14-5 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the French Open
Matteo Arnaldi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15-14 | 6-6 | 7-6 | 2-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 29-26 | 17-13 | 10-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-26 | 21-15 | 23-7 | 4-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-35 | 9-3 | 37-20 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-24 | 2-1 | 51-18 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 36, the Italian reached the 2nd round after beating Felix Auger-Aliassime 5-7 2-6 6-3 6-4 6-2.
In the 1st round, The Italian had a tough win against Auger-Aliassime to overcome his opponent only in 5 sets (5-7 2-6 6-3 6-4 6-2).During the match Arnaldi scored less points (3) than Auger-Aliassime. In fact, the world no. 26 won 153 points vs Auger-Aliassime’s. That means that Arnaldi was more focused during the important points. Arnaldi was exceptionally aggressive to blast 73 winners.
About the serving games, Arnaldi scored 7 aces and he committed only 8 double faults. Matteo Arnaldi lost the serve 4 times and he saved 16 break points. Furthermore, Arnaldi put 59% of his first serves in, winning 72% (73/102) of the points behind his 1st serve and 46% (32/70) on the 2nd serve. Arnaldi broke Auger-Aliassime 5 times after converting 29% of his break points (5/17).
Arnaldi’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Delray Beach.
Matteo has an overall 15-12 win-loss record in 2025, 7-5 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the French Open
Previously, his best result was reaching the 4th round in 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Cobolli | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 24 | 47 |
| Pts | 87-57 | 153-156 |
| Total Points | 144 | 309 |
| Winners | 34 | 73 |
| %Winners | 39% | 48% |
Both Cobolli and Arnaldi played 1 match. At the moment, Matteo Arnaldi conceded 2 sets while Flavio Cobolli hasn’t dropped a set so far. Cobolli has played 2 set(s) less than Arnaldi (3 vs 5). Therefore, Cobolli played 23 games less than Arnaldi. The Italian scored 34 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Arnaldi made 73 winners (48%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Cobolli | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 3 | 7 |
| Avg per match | 3 | 7 |
| 1st in | 46/70 | 102/172 |
| %1st in | 66% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 34/46 | 73/102 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 16/24 | 32/70 |
| %2nd pts | 67% | 46% |
Cobolli struck 3 aces . Arnaldi blasted 7 aces . Cobolli won 74% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 67% of the points. On the other side, Arnaldi won 72% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 46% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Cobolli | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 5 |
| Converted | 6/9 | 5/17 |
| % Converted | 67% | 29% |
| Conceded | 3 | 20 |
| Saved | 3 | 16 |
| % Saved | 100% | 80% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 4 |
Flavio broke his opponent 6 times with a 67% conversion rate. The Italian extremely effective on his serve as he has never lost a single service game after saving 3 break points. The Italian broke his opponent 5 times with a 29% conversion rate. Matteo conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded.
| Cobolli | |||
| R1 Cilic |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-1 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 24 | 24 | |
| pts | 87-57 | 87-57 | |
| Total points | 144 | 144 | |
| Winners | 34 | 34 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 46/70 | 46/70 | |
| % 1st in | 66% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 34/46 | 34/46 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/24 | 16/24 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 67% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 6 | 6 | |
| Converted | 6/9 | 6/9 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 67% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Arnaldi | |||
| R1 Auger-Aliassime |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 5-7 2-6 6-3 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 5 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 47 | 47 | |
| pts | 153-156 | 153-156 | |
| Total points | 309 | 309 | |
| Winners | 73 | 73 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 48% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 7 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 8 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 102/172 | 102/172 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 73/102 | 73/102 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 32/70 | 32/70 | |
| % 2nd pts | 46% | 46% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/17 | 5/17 | |
| Converted % | 29% | 29% | |
| Conceded | 20 | 20 | |
| Saved | 16/20 | 16 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 80% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLWWWWWW
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