Cori Gauff and Jasmine Paolini will face off in the final of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 5:00 pm on CAMPO CENTRALE. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Cori Gauff who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Cori Gauff is the pick to win this match.
Cori Gauff -> 1.77
Jasmine Paolini -> 2.1
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Prediction and head to head Cori Gauff vs. Jasmine Paolini
This will be the 4th time that Cori Gauff and Jasmine Paolini fight against each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Gauff (see full H2H stats), but Paolini has a winning record of 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they locked horns, Paolini won 6-4 6-3 in the quarter in Stuttgart back in April 2025.
Highlights Jasmine Paolini vs Cori Gauff – Stuttgart 19-April-2025
Cori Gauff
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 31-9 | 13-5 | 18-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-18 | 31-10 | 14-5 | 4-1 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-16 | 40-9 | 7-4 | 0-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 38-23 | 23-16 | 10-4 | 0-1 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-16 | 16-10 | 16-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3, Cori reached the final after defeating Victoria Mboko 3-6 6-2 6-1, Magda Linette 7-5 6-3, Emma Raducanu 6-1 6-2, Mirra Andreeva 6-4 7-6(5) and Qinwen Zheng 7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(4).
In the semifinal, The American defeated Zheng (7-63 4-6 7-64). During the match, Gauff scored 135 points vs Zheng’s 121. The American was extremely aggressive to blast 50 winners.
Talking about the service games, Gauff bagged 2 aces and she was not very steady on her 2nd serve to score 16 double faults. Cori Gauff lost the serve 10 times and she saved 17 break points. Furthermore, Gauff put 57% of her first serves in, winning 61% (50/82) of the points behind her 1st serve and 39% (24/62) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Zheng 9 times after converting 53% of her break points (9/17).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American has dropped 2 set in this tournament to win 56% of the points she played.
Gauff has a fantastic record in the last 9 years having won 70% of her matches (253-107). 11-2 on clay in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Gauff has a compiled72-28 match record in the last 9 years on clay.
Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Australia where she overcame Iga Swiatek in the final 6-4 6-4.
Cori has a compiled 24-7 win-loss record in 2025, 11-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Jasmine Paolini
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25-10 | 12-6 | 13-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 42-21 | 19-10 | 12-5 | 3-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-30 | 20-16 | 16-8 | 5-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-25 | 14-11 | 10-10 | 6-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 34-24 | 17-13 | 12-7 | 5-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5, the Italian reached the final after beating Lulu Sun 6-4 6-3, Ons Jabeur 6-4 6-3, Jelena Ostapenko 7-5 6-2, Diana Shnaider 6-7(1) 6-4 6-2 and Peyton Stearns 7-5 6-1.
In the semifinal, Jasmine had a good straight sets win against Stearns (7-5 6-1). During the match Paolini scored 77 points vs Stearns’s 63. Jasmine was very aggressive to blast 35 winners.
About the serving games, Paolini scored just 1 ace during the entire match and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Jasmine Paolini lost the serve twice and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Paolini put 84% of her first serves in, winning 60% (35/58) of the points behind her 1st serve and 45% (5/11) on the 2nd serve. Jasmine broke Stearns 6 times after converting 55% of her break points (6/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
The Italian’s best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in Miami, Stuttgart and Rome.
The Italian has an aggregate 21-8 win-loss record in 2025, 9-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Previously, her best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2020, 2023 and 2024. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Gauff | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 12 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 119 | 108 |
| Pts | 435-346 | 399-336 |
| Total Points | 781 | 735 |
| Winners | 165 | 154 |
| %Winners | 38% | 39% |
Both Gauff and Paolini played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Cori Gauff dropped 2 sets, while Jasmine Paolini surrendered 1 set. Gauff has played 1 set more than Paolini (12 vs 11). Therefore, Gauff played 11 games more than Paolini. Cori scored 165 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Paolini bagged 154 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Gauff | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 10 | 8 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 1.6 |
| 1st in | 249/413 | 253/343 |
| %1st in | 60% | 74% |
| 1st pts | 165/249 | 154/253 |
| %1st pts | 66% | 61% |
| 2nd pts | 74/164 | 52/90 |
| %2nd pts | 45% | 58% |
Gauff recorded 10 aces (2 per match). Paolini made 8 aces (1.6 per match). Gauff won 66% points on her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 45% of the points. On the other side, Paolini won 61% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 58% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Gauff | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 30 | 27 |
| Converted | 30/56 | 27/60 |
| % Converted | 54% | 45% |
| Conceded | 46 | 27 |
| Saved | 25 | 14 |
| % Saved | 54% | 52% |
| Times Broken | 21 | 13 |
Cori broke her opponents 30 times with a 54% conversion rate. Cori conceded her serve 21 times and she saved 54% of the break points that she conceded. Jasmine broke her opponents 27 times with a 45% conversion rate. Paolini conceded her serve 13 times and she saved 52% of the break points that she conceded.
| Gauff | |||||||
| R2 Mboko |
R3 Linette |
R4 Raducanu |
1/4 Andreeva |
1/2 Zheng |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 6-2 6-1 | 7-5 6-3 | 6-1 6-2 | 6-4 7-65 | 7-63 4-6 7-64 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | |
| Tot Games | 24 | 21 | 15 | 23 | 36 | 119 | |
| pts | 84-62 | 78-64 | 64-41 | 74-58 | 135-121 | 435-346 | |
| Total points | 146 | 142 | 105 | 132 | 256 | 781 | |
| Winners | 25 | 32 | 28 | 30 | 50 | 165 | |
| %Winners | 30% | 41% | 44% | 41% | 37% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 8 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 35 | |
| 1st in | 46/72 | 43/77 | 37/59 | 41/61 | 82/144 | 249/413 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 56% | 63% | 67% | 57% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 25/46 | 32/43 | 28/37 | 30/41 | 50/82 | 165/249 | |
| % 1st pts | 54% | 74% | 76% | 73% | 61% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/26 | 16/34 | 11/22 | 11/20 | 24/62 | 74/164 | |
| % 2nd pts | 46% | 47% | 50% | 55% | 39% | 45% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 9 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 30 | |
| Converted | 9/13 | 4/10 | 4/9 | 4/7 | 9/17 | 30/56 | |
| Converted % | 69% | 40% | 44% | 57% | 53% | 54% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 46 | |
| Saved | 1/7 | 2/4 | 3/3 | 2/5 | 17/27 | 25 | |
| Saved % | 14% | 50% | 100% | 40% | 63% | 53% | |
| Times Broken | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 21 | |
| Paolini | |||||||
| R2 Sun |
R3 Jabeur |
R4 Ostapenko |
1/4 Shnaider |
1/2 Stearns |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 6-4 6-3 | 7-5 6-2 | 6-71 6-4 6-2 | 7-5 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 19 | 20 | 31 | 19 | 108 | |
| pts | 75-56 | 63-43 | 81-72 | 103-102 | 77-63 | 399-336 | |
| Total points | 131 | 106 | 153 | 205 | 140 | 735 | |
| Winners | 23 | 27 | 29 | 40 | 35 | 154 | |
| %Winners | 31% | 43% | 36% | 39% | 45% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 34/59 | 37/51 | 53/74 | 71/90 | 58/69 | 253/343 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 73% | 72% | 79% | 84% | 74% | |
| 1st pts | 23/34 | 27/37 | 29/53 | 40/71 | 35/58 | 154/253 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 73% | 55% | 56% | 60% | 61% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/25 | 9/14 | 16/21 | 6/19 | 5/11 | 52/90 | |
| % 2nd pts | 64% | 64% | 76% | 32% | 45% | 58% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 27 | |
| Converted | 4/14 | 4/9 | 4/7 | 9/19 | 6/11 | 27/60 | |
| Converted % | 29% | 44% | 57% | 47% | 55% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 27 | |
| Saved | 1/3 | 1/3 | 5/6 | 2/8 | 5/7 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 33% | 33% | 83% | 25% | 71% | 49% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 13 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWWWLW
LLWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Rome
- Maxime ChazalChazal – Jan SatralSatral (5-7 7-66 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Cori GauffGauff – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (2-1) – H2H and prediction
