Jannik Sinner and Tommy Paul will clash against each other in the semifinal of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 8:30 pm on CAMPO CENTRALE. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jannik Sinner who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jannik Sinner is the pick to win this match.
Jannik Sinner -> 1.107
Tommy Paul -> 6.65
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Prediction and head to head Jannik Sinner vs. Tommy Paul
This will be the 5th time that Jannik Sinner and Tommy Paul fight against each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Sinner (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they played, Sinner won 7-6(3) 7-6(5) 6-1 in the 4th round in at the U.S. Open back in 2024.
Highlights Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul – U.S. Open 02-September-2024
Jannik Sinner
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19-3 | 7-0 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 73-8 | 40-5 | 11-2 | 13-0 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 64-15 | 28-7 | 8-3 | 20-2 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-16 | 21-6 | 15-4 | 7-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 49-22 | 22-8 | 10-6 | 17-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Jannik reached the semifinal after defeating Mariano Navone 6-3 6-4, Jesper De Jong 6-4 6-2, Francisco Cerundolo 7-6(2) 6-3 and Casper Ruud 6-0 6-1.
In the quarter, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Ruud (6-0 6-1). During the match, Sinner scored 55 points vs Ruud’s 22. Sinner was pretty aggressive to blast 18 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sinner scored just 1 ace and he was pretty consistent in conceding no double faults. Jannik Sinner was pretty effective on serve to win 78% (18/23) of his 1st serve and 70% (7/10) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Jannik broke Ruud 6 times after converting 67% of his break points (6/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this event to win 58% of the points he played.
Sinner has a fantastic record in the last 8 years having won 75% of his matches (357-121). 4-0 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Sinner has a compiled89-38 record in the last 8 years on clay.
His best result of the current year was conquering the title at the Australian Open where he overcame Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3 7-6(4) 6-3.
The Italian has an aggregate 11-0 win-loss record in 2025, 4-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Tommy Paul
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25-9 | 10-4 | 12-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-20 | 17-12 | 10-4 | 8-2 | 10-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-29 | 29-13 | 5-6 | 3-5 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-27 | 21-12 | 2-6 | 9-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 12-12 | 9-7 | 12-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 12, Paul got to the semifinal after defeating Roberto Bautista Agut 6-1 6-4, Tomas Machac 6-3 6-7(5) 6-4, Alex De Minaur 7-5 6-3 and Hubert Hurkacz 7-6(4) 6-3.
In the quarter, The American had a good straight sets win against Hurkacz (7-64 6-3). During the match Paul scored 88 points vs Hurkacz’s 74. The American was exceptionally aggressive to blast 39 winners.
About the serving games, Paul scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Tommy Paul lost the serve 3 times and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Paul put 58% of his first serves in, winning 74% (39/53) of the points behind his 1st serve and 45% (17/38) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Hurkacz 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
Tommy’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Adelaide, Dallas and Houston.
The American has an overall 21-7 win-loss record in 2025, 8-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sinner | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 8 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 72 | 92 |
| Pts | 282-205 | 322-269 |
| Total Points | 487 | 591 |
| Winners | 103 | 129 |
| %Winners | 37% | 40% |
Both Sinner and Paul played 4 matches. At the moment, Tommy Paul dropped 1 set while Jannik Sinner hasn’t lost a set so far. Sinner has played 1 set(s) less than Paul (8 vs 9). Therefore, Sinner played 20 games less than Paul. Sinner scored 103 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Tommy managed to score 129 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sinner | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 8 | 10 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 2.5 |
| 1st in | 154/239 | 175/309 |
| %1st in | 64% | 57% |
| 1st pts | 103/154 | 129/175 |
| %1st pts | 67% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 52/85 | 72/134 |
| %2nd pts | 61% | 54% |
Sinner fired 8 aces (2 per match). Paul struck 10 aces (2.5 per match). Sinner won 67% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Paul won 74% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sinner | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 17 | 16 |
| Converted | 17/35 | 16/26 |
| % Converted | 49% | 62% |
| Conceded | 15 | 22 |
| Saved | 10 | 15 |
| % Saved | 67% | 68% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 7 |
The Italian broke his opponents 17 times with a 49% conversion rate. Jannik dropped his serve 5 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. The American broke his opponents 16 times with a 62% conversion rate. Paul conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 68% of the break points that he conceded.
| Sinner | ||||||
| R2 Navone |
R3 De |
R4 Cerundolo |
1/4 Ruud |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 6-4 6-2 | 7-62 6-3 | 6-0 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 18 | 22 | 13 | 72 | |
| pts | 67-56 | 66-44 | 94-83 | 55-22 | 282-205 | |
| Total points | 123 | 110 | 177 | 77 | 487 | |
| Winners | 24 | 21 | 40 | 18 | 103 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 32% | 43% | 33% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 38/63 | 33/52 | 60/91 | 23/33 | 154/239 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 63% | 66% | 70% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 24/38 | 21/33 | 40/60 | 18/23 | 103/154 | |
| % 1st pts | 63% | 64% | 67% | 78% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/25 | 13/19 | 15/31 | 7/10 | 52/85 | |
| % 2nd pts | 68% | 68% | 48% | 70% | 61% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 5/7 | 3/12 | 6/9 | 17/35 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 71% | 25% | 67% | 49% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 15 | |
| Saved | 2/3 | 2/4 | 6/8 | 0/0 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 50% | 75% | – | 48% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Paul | ||||||
| R2 Bautista-Agut |
R3 Machac |
R4 De Minaur |
1/4 Hurkacz |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-4 | 6-3 6-75 6-4 | 7-5 6-3 | 7-64 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 32 | 21 | 22 | 92 | |
| pts | 57-41 | 97-88 | 80-66 | 88-74 | 322-269 | |
| Total points | 98 | 185 | 146 | 162 | 591 | |
| Winners | 19 | 44 | 27 | 39 | 129 | |
| %Winners | 33% | 45% | 34% | 44% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 22/45 | 57/99 | 43/74 | 53/91 | 175/309 | |
| % 1st in | 49% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 19/22 | 44/57 | 27/43 | 39/53 | 129/175 | |
| % 1st pts | 86% | 77% | 63% | 74% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/23 | 22/42 | 19/31 | 17/38 | 72/134 | |
| % 2nd pts | 61% | 52% | 61% | 45% | 54% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 | |
| Converted | 4/4 | 4/6 | 4/7 | 4/9 | 16/26 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 67% | 57% | 44% | 62% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 22 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 2/4 | 8/10 | 5/8 | 15 | |
| Saved % | – | 50% | 80% | 63% | 48% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLWWWWWWL
LWWWWLWWWW Tennis Scores in Rome
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Casper RuudRuud (6-0 6-1) – See score progression
- Marcelo Arevalo/Mate PavicArevalo/Mate Pavic – Christian Harrison/Evan KingHarrison/Evan King (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
- Tommy PaulPaul – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (7-64 6-3) – See score progression
- Joe Salisbury/Neal SkupskiSalisbury/Neal Skupski – Marcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio Zeballos (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Alexander ZverevZverev (7-61 6-4) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Jack DraperDraper (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Casper RuudRuud (6-0 6-1) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Tommy PaulPaul (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (5-1) – H2H and prediction
