Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti will play each other in the semifinal of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 7^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 3:30 pm on CAMPO CENTRALE. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.35
Lorenzo Musetti -> 3.2

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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti

This will be the 7^th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti square off. The head to head is 5-1 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 3-1 on clay.

The last time that they squared off, Alcaraz won 3-6 6-1 6-0 in the final in Monte carlo back in April 2025.

Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti – Monte carlo 13-April-2025

Carlos Alcaraz

Ranked no. 3, the Spaniard got to the semifinal after beating Dusan Lajovic 6-3 6-3, Laslo Djere 7-6(2) 6-2, Karen Khachanov 6-3 3-6 7-5 and Jack Draper 6-4 6-4.

In the quarter, Alcaraz had a good straight sets win against Draper (6-4 6-4). During the match, Alcaraz scored 70 points vs Draper’s 57. The Spaniard was extremely aggressive to blast 30 winners.

Talking about the service games, Alcaraz scored just 1 ace in the course of the match and he committed only 3 double faults. Carlos Alcaraz lost the serve twice and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Alcaraz put 61% of his first serves in, winning 61% (30/49) of the points behind his 1st serve and 58% (18/31) on the 2nd serve. Carlos was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Draper 4 times.

Overall Performance in this tournament

Alcaraz has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to conquer 53% of the points he played.

Alcaraz has a fantastic record in the last 8 years having won 80% of his matches (315-81). 13-1 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Alcaraz has an overall154-36 match record in the last 8 years on clay.

His best result of the season was conquering the title in Rotterdam where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2 and in Carlo where he defeated Lorenzo Musetti in the final 3-6 6-1 6-0.

Carlos has a composed 28-5 win-loss record in 2025, 13-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rome

Lorenzo Musetti

Ranked no. 9 (career-high), Musetti got to the semifinal after defeating Otto Virtanen 6-3 6-2, Brandon Nakashima 6-4 6-3, Daniil Medvedev 7-5 6-4 and Alexander Zverev 7-6(1) 6-4.

In the quarter, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Zverev (7-6¹ 6-4). During the match Musetti scored 80 points vs Zverev’s 67. Lorenzo was very aggressive to blast 26 winners.

About the serving games, Musetti fired 2 aces and he was exceptionally solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Lorenzo Musetti lost the serve twice and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Musetti put 50% of his first serves in, winning 70% (26/37) of the points behind his 1st serve and 59% (22/37) on the 2nd serve. Musetti was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Zverev 3 times.

Overall Performance in this tournament

Lorenzo hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.

The Italian’s best result of the season was getting to the final in Carlo.

Musetti has an aggregate 20-6 win-loss record in 2025, 14-2 on clay (See FULL STATS)

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Previously in Rome

Previously, his best result was reaching the 4^th round in 2023. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Alcaraz	Musetti
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	9	8
Tot Games	89	81
Pts	307-269	268-214
Total Points	576	482
Winners	131	115
%Winners	43%	43%

Both Alcaraz and Musetti played 4 matches. At the moment, Carlos Alcaraz conceded 1 set while Lorenzo Musetti hasn’t lost a set so far. Alcaraz has played 1 set more than Musetti (9 vs 8). Therefore, Alcaraz played 8 games more than Musetti. Alcaraz scored 131 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Lorenzo managed to score 115 winners (43%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Alcaraz	Musetti
Aces	6	11
Avg per match	1.5	2.8
1st in	198/302	148/237
%1st in	66%	62%
1st pts	131/198	115/148
%1st pts	66%	78%
2nd pts	56/104	53/89
%2nd pts	54%	60%

Alcaraz blasted 6 aces (1.5 per match). Musetti blasted 11 aces (2.8 per match). Alcaraz won 66% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Musetti won 78% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Alcaraz	Musetti
Won	17	12
Converted	17/33	12/21
% Converted	52%	57%
Conceded	23	10
Saved	14	7
% Saved	61%	70%
Times Broken	9	3

Alcaraz broke his opponents 17 times with a 52% conversion rate. Carlos conceded his serve 9 times and he saved 61% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponents 12 times with a 57% conversion rate. Musetti conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 70% of the break points that he conceded.

Alcaraz
	R2 Lajovic	R3 Djere	R4 Khachanov	1/4 Draper	Total
Score	6-3 6-3	7-62 6-2	6-3 3-6 7-5	6-4 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	3	2	9
Tot Games	18	21	30	20	89
pts	66-52	76-62	95-98	70-57	307-269
Total points	118	138	193	127	576
Winners	26	30	45	30	131
%Winners	39%	39%	47%	43%	43%
SERVE
Aces	3	1	1	1	6
Double Faults	2	0	2	3	7
1st in	36/51	44/66	69/105	49/80	198/302
% 1st in	71%	67%	66%	61%	66%
1st pts	26/36	30/44	45/69	30/49	131/198
% 1st pts	72%	68%	65%	61%	66%
2nd pts	9/15	14/22	15/36	18/31	56/104
% 2nd pts	60%	64%	42%	58%	54%
Breaks
Won	4	4	5	4	17
Converted	4/10	4/9	5/10	4/4	17/33
Converted %	40%	44%	50%	100%	52%
Conceded	2	4	9	8	23
Saved	1/2	2/4	5/9	6/8	14
Saved %	50%	50%	56%	75%	58%
Times Broken	1	2	4	2	9

Musetti
	R2 Virtanen	R3 Nakashima	R4 Medvedev	1/4 Zverev	Total
Score	6-3 6-2	6-4 6-3	7-5 6-4	7-61 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	17	19	22	23	81
pts	69-49	55-46	64-52	80-67	268-214
Total points	118	101	116	147	482
Winners	30	32	27	26	115
%Winners	43%	58%	42%	33%	43%
SERVE
Aces	1	4	4	2	11
Double Faults	1	1	0	0	2
1st in	37/53	39/52	35/58	37/74	148/237
% 1st in	70%	75%	60%	50%	62%
1st pts	30/37	32/39	27/35	26/37	115/148
% 1st pts	81%	82%	77%	70%	78%
2nd pts	9/16	6/13	16/23	22/37	53/89
% 2nd pts	56%	46%	70%	59%	60%
Breaks
Won	3	3	3	3	12
Converted	3/9	3/4	3/5	3/3	12/21
Converted %	33%	75%	60%	100%	57%
Conceded	0	1	3	6	10
Saved	0/0	1/1	2/3	4/6	7
Saved %	–	100%	67%	67%	59%
Times Broken	0	0	1	2	3

Tennis Scores in Rome

• Jannik SinnerSinner – Casper RuudRuud (6-0 6-1) – See score progression
• Tommy PaulPaul – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (7-6⁴ 6-3) – See score progression
• Joe Salisbury/Neal SkupskiSalisbury/Neal Skupski – Marcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio Zeballos (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Alexander ZverevZverev (7-6¹ 6-4) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Jack DraperDraper (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Casper RuudRuud (6-0 6-1) – See score progression
• Tommy PaulPaul – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (7-6(4) 6-3) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jannik SinnerSinner – Tommy PaulPaul (3-1) – H2H and prediction
• Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (5-1) – H2H and prediction