Jasmine Paolini and Peyton Stearns will clash against each other in the semifinal of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 3:00 pm on SUPERTENNIS ARENA. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jasmine Paolini who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jasmine Paolini is the pick to win this match.
Jasmine Paolini -> 1.53
Peyton Stearns -> 2.5
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Prediction and head to head Jasmine Paolini vs. Peyton Stearns
There is no head to head record between Jasmine Paolini and Peyton Stearns since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.
Jasmine Paolini
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22-8 | 12-6 | 10-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 42-21 | 19-10 | 12-5 | 3-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-30 | 20-16 | 16-8 | 5-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-25 | 14-11 | 10-10 | 6-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 34-24 | 17-13 | 12-7 | 5-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5, Paolini reached the semifinal after beating Lulu Sun 6-4 6-3, Ons Jabeur 6-4 6-3, Jelena Ostapenko 7-5 6-2 and Diana Shnaider 6-7(1) 6-4 6-2.
In the quarter against Shnaider, Paolini recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-71 6-4 6-2). During the match, Paolini scored 103 points vs Shnaider’s 102. The Italian was quite aggressive to blast 40 winners.
Regarding the service games, Paolini scored just 1 ace throughout the match and she was extremely steady in conceding no double faults. Jasmine Paolini lost the serve 6 times and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Paolini put 79% of her first serves in, winning 56% (40/71) of the points behind her 1st serve and 32% (6/19) on the 2nd serve. Paolini broke Shnaider 9 times after converting 47% of her break points (9/19).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Jasmine has conceded 1 set in this tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
Paolini has winning match record in the last 10 years having won 58% of her matches (330-239). 8-2 on clay in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Paolini has an overall 163-96 record in the last years on clay.
The Italian’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in Miami and Stuttgart.
The Italian has an overall 20-8 win-loss record in 2025, 8-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Peyton Stearns
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16-12 | 7-8 | 8-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 25-23 | 13-15 | 11-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 45-23 | 19-13 | 19-7 | 6-1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-15 | 29-12 | 1-2 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 8-9 | 8-7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 42 (career-high), Stearns reached the semifinal after beating Nuria Brancaccio 6-3 6-2, Anna Kalinskaya 6-2 6-3, Madison Keys 2-6 6-2 7-6(3), Naomi Osaka 6-4 3-6 7-6(4) and Elina Svitolina 6-2 4-6 7-6(4).
In the quarter, The American defeated Svitolina (6-2 4-6 7-64). During the match Stearns scored 105 points vs Svitolina’s 100. Peyton was pretty aggressive to blast 42 winners.
About the serving games, Stearns wasn’t able to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 8 double faults. Peyton Stearns lost the serve 7 times and she saved 10 break points. Furthermore, Stearns put 67% of her first serves in, winning 60% (42/70) of the points behind her 1st serve and 38% (13/34) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Svitolina 8 times after converting 44% of her break points (8/18).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Peyton has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
The American has a compiled 16-11 win-loss record in 2025, 8-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Peyton has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Paolini | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 13 |
| Tot Games | 89 | 126 |
| Pts | 322-273 | 426-384 |
| Total Points | 595 | 810 |
| Winners | 119 | 181 |
| %Winners | 37% | 42% |
Paolini played 4 matches while Stearns competed in 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jasmine Paolini conceded 1 set, while Peyton Stearns dropped 3 sets. Paolini has played 4 set(s) less than Stearns (9 vs 13). Therefore, Paolini played 37 games less than Stearns. Jasmine scored 119 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Peyton fired 181 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Paolini | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 7 | 12 |
| Avg per match | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| 1st in | 195/274 | 259/424 |
| %1st in | 71% | 61% |
| 1st pts | 119/195 | 181/259 |
| %1st pts | 61% | 70% |
| 2nd pts | 47/79 | 74/165 |
| %2nd pts | 59% | 45% |
Paolini managed to score 7 aces (1.8 per match). Stearns recorded 12 aces (2.4 per match). Paolini won 61% points on her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Stearns won 70% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 45% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Paolini | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 21 | 23 |
| Converted | 21/49 | 23/47 |
| % Converted | 43% | 49% |
| Conceded | 20 | 51 |
| Saved | 9 | 35 |
| % Saved | 45% | 69% |
| Times Broken | 11 | 16 |
The Italian broke her opponents 21 times with a 43% conversion rate. Jasmine conceded her serve 11 times and she saved 45% of the break points that she conceded. Stearns broke her opponents 23 times with a 49% conversion rate. Peyton conceded her serve 16 times and she saved 69% of the break points that she conceded.
| Paolini | ||||||
| R2 Sun |
R3 Jabeur |
R4 Ostapenko |
1/4 Shnaider |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 6-4 6-3 | 7-5 6-2 | 6-71 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 19 | 20 | 31 | 89 | |
| pts | 75-56 | 63-43 | 81-72 | 103-102 | 322-273 | |
| Total points | 131 | 106 | 153 | 205 | 595 | |
| Winners | 23 | 27 | 29 | 40 | 119 | |
| %Winners | 31% | 43% | 36% | 39% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 34/59 | 37/51 | 53/74 | 71/90 | 195/274 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 73% | 72% | 79% | 71% | |
| 1st pts | 23/34 | 27/37 | 29/53 | 40/71 | 119/195 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 73% | 55% | 56% | 61% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/25 | 9/14 | 16/21 | 6/19 | 47/79 | |
| % 2nd pts | 64% | 64% | 76% | 32% | 59% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21 | |
| Converted | 4/14 | 4/9 | 4/7 | 9/19 | 21/49 | |
| Converted % | 29% | 44% | 57% | 47% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 20 | |
| Saved | 1/3 | 1/3 | 5/6 | 2/8 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 33% | 33% | 83% | 25% | 44% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | |
| Stearns | |||||||
| R1 Brancaccio |
R2 Kalinskaya |
R3 Keys |
R4 Osaka |
1/4 Svitolina |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 6-2 6-3 | 2-6 6-2 7-63 | 6-4 3-6 7-64 | 6-2 4-6 7-64 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 17 | 29 | 32 | 31 | 126 | |
| pts | 63-43 | 61-43 | 105-99 | 92-99 | 105-100 | 426-384 | |
| Total points | 106 | 104 | 204 | 191 | 205 | 810 | |
| Winners | 30 | 26 | 36 | 47 | 42 | 181 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 43% | 34% | 51% | 40% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 21 | |
| 1st in | 35/57 | 34/56 | 57/102 | 63/105 | 70/104 | 259/424 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 61% | 56% | 60% | 67% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 30/35 | 26/34 | 36/57 | 47/63 | 42/70 | 181/259 | |
| % 1st pts | 86% | 76% | 63% | 75% | 60% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/22 | 11/22 | 22/45 | 19/42 | 13/34 | 74/165 | |
| % 2nd pts | 41% | 50% | 49% | 45% | 38% | 45% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 23 | |
| Converted | 3/6 | 4/6 | 5/14 | 3/3 | 8/18 | 23/47 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 67% | 36% | 100% | 44% | 49% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 3 | 17 | 10 | 17 | 51 | |
| Saved | 4/4 | 2/3 | 12/17 | 7/10 | 10/17 | 35 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 67% | 71% | 70% | 59% | 92% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWLWLW
LWWWWWLWWW Tennis Scores in Rome
- Maxime ChazalChazal – Julian LenzLenz (6-4 3-6 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jan SatralSatral – Colin SinclairSinclair (3-6 6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Qinwen ZhengZheng (6-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Peyton StearnsStearns (0-0) – H2H and prediction
