Lorenzo Musetti and Daniil Medvedev will square off in the 4^th round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 2:00 pm on GRAND STAND ARENA. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Lorenzo Musetti who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Lorenzo Musetti is the pick to win this match.
Lorenzo Musetti -> 1.7
Daniil Medvedev -> 2.15

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Prediction and head to head Lorenzo Musetti vs. Daniil Medvedev

This will be the 3^rd time that Lorenzo Musetti and Daniil Medvedev face off. The head to head is 2-0 for Medvedev (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.

The last time that they played, Medvedev won 6-3 6-2 in the 2^nd round in Cincinnati back in 2023.

Lorenzo Musetti

Ranked no. 9 (career-high), Musetti got to the 4^th round after defeating Otto Virtanen 6-3 6-2 and Brandon Nakashima 6-4 6-3.

In the 3^rd round, Musetti had a good straight sets win against Nakashima (6-4 6-3). During the match, Musetti scored 55 points vs Nakashima’s 46. Lorenzo was quite aggressive to blast 32 winners.

Talking about the service games, Musetti scored 4 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Lorenzo Musetti conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 1 break points. Furthermore, Musetti put 75% of his first serves in, winning 82% (32/39) of the points behind his 1st serve and 46% (6/13) on the 2nd serve. Musetti broke Nakashima 3 times after converting 75% of his break points (3/4).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Lorenzo hasn’t lost yet a set in this competition to conquer 57% of the points he played.

Musetti has a winning match record in the last 8 years having won 59% of his matches (238-167). 12-2 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Musetti has an aggregate131-68 record in the last 8 years on clay.

Lorenzo’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in Carlo.

The Italian has an aggregate 18-6 win-loss record in 2025, 12-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rome

Daniil Medvedev

Ranked no. 11, Medvedev got to the 4^th round after defeating Cameron Norrie 6-4 6-2 and Alexei Popyrin 6-4 6-1.

In the 3^rd round, Daniil had a good straight sets win against Popyrin (6-4 6-1). During the match Medvedev scored 65 points vs Popyrin’s 54. Medvedev was pretty aggressive to blast 29 winners.

About the serving games, Medvedev made 4 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Daniil Medvedev lost the serve once and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Medvedev put 63% of his first serves in, winning 74% (29/39) of the points behind his 1st serve and 43% (10/23) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Popyrin 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Medvedev hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

The Russian’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in Marseille and Indian Wells.

Daniil has an overall 18-9 win-loss record in 2025, 6-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rome

Previously, he won this tournament once in 2023. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Musetti	Medvedev
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	4	4
Tot Games	36	35
Pts	124-95	136-110
Total Points	219	246
Winners	62	54
%Winners	50%	40%

Both Musetti and Medvedev played 2 matches. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Musetti and Medvedev have played the same amount of sets 4. However, Musetti played 1 game more than Medvedev. Lorenzo scored 62 winners (50% of the total points). On the other side, Medvedev fired 54 winners (40%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Musetti	Medvedev
Aces	5	8
Avg per match	2.5	4
1st in	76/105	73/112
%1st in	72%	65%
1st pts	62/76	54/73
%1st pts	82%	74%
2nd pts	15/29	20/39
%2nd pts	52%	51%

Musetti managed to score 5 aces (2.5 per match). Medvedev made 8 aces (4 per match). Musetti won 82% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Medvedev won 74% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Musetti	Medvedev
Won	6	8
Converted	6/13	8/20
% Converted	46%	40%
Conceded	1	8
Saved	1	6
% Saved	100%	75%
Times Broken	0	2

Musetti broke his opponents 6 times with a 46% conversion rate. Musetti quite strong on his serve as he has never dropped a single service game after saving 1 break points. Daniil broke his opponents 8 times with a 40% conversion rate. Daniil conceded his serve twice and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.

Musetti
	R2 Virtanen	R3 Nakashima	Total
Score	6-3 6-2	6-4 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	17	19	36
pts	69-49	55-46	124-95
Total points	118	101	219
Winners	30	32	62
%Winners	43%	58%	50%
SERVE
Aces	1	4	5
Double Faults	1	1	2
1st in	37/53	39/52	76/105
% 1st in	70%	75%	72%
1st pts	30/37	32/39	62/76
% 1st pts	81%	82%	82%
2nd pts	9/16	6/13	15/29
% 2nd pts	56%	46%	52%
Breaks
Won	3	3	6
Converted	3/9	3/4	6/13
Converted %	33%	75%	46%
Conceded	0	1	1
Saved	0/0	1/1	1
Saved %	–	100%	50%
Times Broken	0	0	0

Medvedev
	R2 Norrie	R3 Popyrin	Total
Score	6-4 6-2	6-4 6-1
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	18	17	35
pts	71-56	65-54	136-110
Total points	127	119	246
Winners	25	29	54
%Winners	35%	45%	40%
SERVE
Aces	4	4	8
Double Faults	4	3	7
1st in	34/50	39/62	73/112
% 1st in	68%	63%	65%
1st pts	25/34	29/39	54/73
% 1st pts	74%	74%	74%
2nd pts	10/16	10/23	20/39
% 2nd pts	63%	43%	51%
Breaks
Won	4	4	8
Converted	4/14	4/6	8/20
Converted %	29%	67%	40%
Conceded	1	7	8
Saved	0/1	6/7	6
Saved %	0%	86%	43%
Times Broken	1	1	2

Tennis Scores in Rome

• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Sebastian OfnerOfner (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Casper RuudRuud – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (7-5 2-0 ret.) – See score progression
• Jakub MensikMensik – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (6-4 7-6²) – See score progression
• Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Hugo DellienDellien (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Jesper De JongDe Jong (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Marcos GironGiron (6-3 1-6 6-1) – See score progression
• Tommy PaulPaul – Tomas MachacMachac (6-3 6-7⁵ 6-4) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Laslo DjereDjere (7-6² 6-2) – See score progression
• Corentin MoutetMoutet – Holger RuneRune (7-5 5-7 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Arthur FilsFils – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (2-6 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Francesco PassaroPassaro (6-3 6-0) – See score progression
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
• Jack DraperDraper – Vit KoprivaKopriva (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Vilius GaubasGaubas (6-4 6-0) – See score progression
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Jesper De JongDe Jong (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Sebastian OfnerOfner (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Casper RuudRuud – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (7-5 2-0 ret.) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-4) – H2H and prediction
• Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Tommy PaulPaul – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (0-5) – H2H and prediction
• Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Casper RuudRuud (1-5) – H2H and prediction
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (2-2) – H2H and prediction
• Jack DraperDraper – Corentin MoutetMoutet (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-2) – H2H and prediction