Lorenzo Musetti and Daniil Medvedev will square off in the 4th round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 2:00 pm on GRAND STAND ARENA. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Lorenzo Musetti who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Lorenzo Musetti is the pick to win this match.
Lorenzo Musetti -> 1.7
Daniil Medvedev -> 2.15
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Prediction and head to head Lorenzo Musetti vs. Daniil Medvedev
This will be the 3rd time that Lorenzo Musetti and Daniil Medvedev face off. The head to head is 2-0 for Medvedev (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they played, Medvedev won 6-3 6-2 in the 2nd round in Cincinnati back in 2023.
Lorenzo Musetti
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25-8 | 6-4 | 19-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 46-30 | 13-12 | 18-10 | 3-5 | 12-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-29 | 10-10 | 16-11 | 0-5 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 44-30 | 11-10 | 21-7 | 12-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-31 | 9-8 | 17-12 | 10-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 9 (career-high), Musetti got to the 4th round after defeating Otto Virtanen 6-3 6-2 and Brandon Nakashima 6-4 6-3.
In the 3rd round, Musetti had a good straight sets win against Nakashima (6-4 6-3). During the match, Musetti scored 55 points vs Nakashima’s 46. Lorenzo was quite aggressive to blast 32 winners.
Talking about the service games, Musetti scored 4 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Lorenzo Musetti conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 1 break points. Furthermore, Musetti put 75% of his first serves in, winning 82% (32/39) of the points behind his 1st serve and 46% (6/13) on the 2nd serve. Musetti broke Nakashima 3 times after converting 75% of his break points (3/4).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Lorenzo hasn’t lost yet a set in this competition to conquer 57% of the points he played.
Musetti has a winning match record in the last 8 years having won 59% of his matches (238-167). 12-2 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Musetti has an aggregate131-68 record in the last 8 years on clay.
Lorenzo’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in Carlo.
The Italian has an aggregate 18-6 win-loss record in 2025, 12-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Daniil Medvedev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18-11 | 9-5 | 6-4 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 46-21 | 28-9 | 11-5 | 1-5 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 66-18 | 38-8 | 10-3 | 11-4 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 45-19 | 26-8 | 3-2 | 8-6 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 63-13 | 33-5 | 5-3 | 18-3 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 11, Medvedev got to the 4th round after defeating Cameron Norrie 6-4 6-2 and Alexei Popyrin 6-4 6-1.
In the 3rd round, Daniil had a good straight sets win against Popyrin (6-4 6-1). During the match Medvedev scored 65 points vs Popyrin’s 54. Medvedev was pretty aggressive to blast 29 winners.
About the serving games, Medvedev made 4 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Daniil Medvedev lost the serve once and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Medvedev put 63% of his first serves in, winning 74% (29/39) of the points behind his 1st serve and 43% (10/23) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Popyrin 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Medvedev hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
The Russian’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in Marseille and Indian Wells.
Daniil has an overall 18-9 win-loss record in 2025, 6-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Previously, he won this tournament once in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Musetti | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 36 | 35 |
| Pts | 124-95 | 136-110 |
| Total Points | 219 | 246 |
| Winners | 62 | 54 |
| %Winners | 50% | 40% |
Both Musetti and Medvedev played 2 matches. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Musetti and Medvedev have played the same amount of sets 4. However, Musetti played 1 game more than Medvedev. Lorenzo scored 62 winners (50% of the total points). On the other side, Medvedev fired 54 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Musetti | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 5 | 8 |
| Avg per match | 2.5 | 4 |
| 1st in | 76/105 | 73/112 |
| %1st in | 72% | 65% |
| 1st pts | 62/76 | 54/73 |
| %1st pts | 82% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 15/29 | 20/39 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 51% |
Musetti managed to score 5 aces (2.5 per match). Medvedev made 8 aces (4 per match). Musetti won 82% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Medvedev won 74% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Musetti | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 8 |
| Converted | 6/13 | 8/20 |
| % Converted | 46% | 40% |
| Conceded | 1 | 8 |
| Saved | 1 | 6 |
| % Saved | 100% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 |
Musetti broke his opponents 6 times with a 46% conversion rate. Musetti quite strong on his serve as he has never dropped a single service game after saving 1 break points. Daniil broke his opponents 8 times with a 40% conversion rate. Daniil conceded his serve twice and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Musetti | ||||
| R2 Virtanen |
R3 Nakashima |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 19 | 36 | |
| pts | 69-49 | 55-46 | 124-95 | |
| Total points | 118 | 101 | 219 | |
| Winners | 30 | 32 | 62 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 58% | 50% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 37/53 | 39/52 | 76/105 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 75% | 72% | |
| 1st pts | 30/37 | 32/39 | 62/76 | |
| % 1st pts | 81% | 82% | 82% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/16 | 6/13 | 15/29 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 46% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Converted | 3/9 | 3/4 | 6/13 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 75% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 1/1 | 1 | |
| Saved % | – | 100% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Medvedev | ||||
| R2 Norrie |
R3 Popyrin |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-2 | 6-4 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 17 | 35 | |
| pts | 71-56 | 65-54 | 136-110 | |
| Total points | 127 | 119 | 246 | |
| Winners | 25 | 29 | 54 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 45% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 3 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 34/50 | 39/62 | 73/112 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 63% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 25/34 | 29/39 | 54/73 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 74% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/16 | 10/23 | 20/39 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 43% | 51% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Converted | 4/14 | 4/6 | 8/20 | |
| Converted % | 29% | 67% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 7 | 8 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 6/7 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 86% | 43% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWLWWW
LLWWLWWLWW Tennis Scores in Rome
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Sebastian OfnerOfner (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (7-5 2-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Jakub MensikMensik – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (6-4 7-62) – See score progression
- Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Hugo DellienDellien (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Jesper De JongDe Jong (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Marcos GironGiron (6-3 1-6 6-1) – See score progression
- Tommy PaulPaul – Tomas MachacMachac (6-3 6-75 6-4) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Laslo DjereDjere (7-62 6-2) – See score progression
- Corentin MoutetMoutet – Holger RuneRune (7-5 5-7 7-64) – See score progression
- Arthur FilsFils – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (2-6 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Francesco PassaroPassaro (6-3 6-0) – See score progression
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Jack DraperDraper – Vit KoprivaKopriva (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Vilius GaubasGaubas (6-4 6-0) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Jesper De JongDe Jong (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Sebastian OfnerOfner (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (7-5 2-0 ret.) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-4) – H2H and prediction
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Tommy PaulPaul – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (0-5) – H2H and prediction
- Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Casper RuudRuud (1-5) – H2H and prediction
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Jack DraperDraper – Corentin MoutetMoutet (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-2) – H2H and prediction
