Alex De Minaur and Tommy Paul will fight against each other in the 4th round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 7:30 pm on GRAND STAND ARENA. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex De Minaur who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Alex De Minaur is the pick to win this match.
Alex De Minaur -> 1.64
Tommy Paul -> 2.26
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Tommy Paul
This will be the 6th time that Alex De Minaur and Tommy Paul fight against each other. The head to head is 5-0 for De Minaur (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they squared off, De Minaur won 6-4 3-6 6-3 in the quarter in Los cabos back in 2023.
Alex De Minaur
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 26-10 | 12-5 | 9-4 | 5-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 47-21 | 19-6 | 10-5 | 11-9 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-26 | 26-12 | 4-5 | 10-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-25 | 19-10 | 9-6 | 12-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-25 | 10-10 | 4-5 | 3-7 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 8, the Australian got to the 4th round after defeating Luca Nardi 6-4 7-5 and Hugo Dellien 6-4 6-4.
In the 3rd round, Alex had a good straight sets win against Dellien (6-4 6-4). During the match, De Minaur scored 64 points vs Dellien’s 55. The Australian was quite aggressive to blast 19 winners.
Regarding the service games, De Minaur scored 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Alex De Minaur was pretty effective on serve to win 76% (19/25) of his 1st serve and 62% (23/37) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. De Minaur broke Dellien 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Australian hasn’t lost yet a set in this event to win 54% of the points he played.
De Minaur has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (385-214). 9-3 on clay in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, De Minaur has a compiled 68-51 record in the last years on clay.
Alex’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in Rotterdam.
De Minaur has a composed 26-9 win-loss record in 2025, 9-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Tommy Paul
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21-8 | 10-4 | 8-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-20 | 17-12 | 10-4 | 8-2 | 10-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-29 | 29-13 | 5-6 | 3-5 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-27 | 21-12 | 2-6 | 9-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 12-12 | 9-7 | 12-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 12, Paul got to the 4th round after defeating Roberto Bautista Agut 6-1 6-4 and Tomas Machac 6-3 6-7(5) 6-4.
In the 3rd round, Paul defeated Machac (6-3 6-75 6-4). During the match Paul scored 97 points vs Machac’s 88. Paul was very aggressive to blast 44 winners.
Talking about serving, Paul blasted 7 aces and he was quite consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Overall, Tommy Paul was quite effective on serve to win 77% (44/57) of his 1st serve and 52% (22/42) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Paul broke Machac 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
Paul’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in Adelaide, Dallas and Houston.
The American has a composed 19-7 win-loss record in 2025, 6-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | De Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 42 | 49 |
| Pts | 143-124 | 154-129 |
| Total Points | 267 | 283 |
| Winners | 48 | 63 |
| %Winners | 34% | 41% |
Both De Minaur and Paul played 2 matches. At the moment, Tommy Paul surrendered 1 set while Alex De Minaur hasn’t surrendered a set so far. De Minaur has played 1 set(s) less than Paul (4 vs 5). Therefore, De Minaur played 7 games less than Paul. Alex scored 48 winners (34% of the total points). On the other side, Tommy struck 63 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | De Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 8 | 9 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 4.5 |
| 1st in | 58/120 | 79/144 |
| %1st in | 48% | 55% |
| 1st pts | 48/58 | 63/79 |
| %1st pts | 83% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 32/62 | 36/65 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 55% |
De Minaur struck 8 aces (4 per match). Paul recorded 9 aces (4.5 per match). De Minaur won 83% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Paul won 80% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | De Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 8 |
| Converted | 7/22 | 8/10 |
| % Converted | 32% | 80% |
| Conceded | 9 | 4 |
| Saved | 6 | 2 |
| % Saved | 67% | 50% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 |
The Australian broke his opponents 7 times with a 32% conversion rate. Alex lost his serve 3 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. The American broke his opponents 8 times with a 80% conversion rate. Tommy conceded his serve twice and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.
| De Minaur | ||||
| R2 Nardi |
R3 Dellien |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-5 | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 20 | 42 | |
| pts | 79-69 | 64-55 | 143-124 | |
| Total points | 148 | 119 | 267 | |
| Winners | 29 | 19 | 48 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 30% | 34% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 5 | 3 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 33/58 | 25/62 | 58/120 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 40% | 48% | |
| 1st pts | 29/33 | 19/25 | 48/58 | |
| % 1st pts | 88% | 76% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/25 | 23/37 | 32/62 | |
| % 2nd pts | 36% | 62% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 7 | |
| Converted | 4/16 | 3/6 | 7/22 | |
| Converted % | 25% | 50% | 32% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 6 | 9 | |
| Saved | 1/3 | 5/6 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 33% | 83% | 58% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Paul | ||||
| R2 Bautista-Agut |
R3 Machac |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-4 | 6-3 6-75 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 32 | 49 | |
| pts | 57-41 | 97-88 | 154-129 | |
| Total points | 98 | 185 | 283 | |
| Winners | 19 | 44 | 63 | |
| %Winners | 33% | 45% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 2 | 7 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1st in | 22/45 | 57/99 | 79/144 | |
| % 1st in | 49% | 58% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 19/22 | 44/57 | 63/79 | |
| % 1st pts | 86% | 77% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/23 | 22/42 | 36/65 | |
| % 2nd pts | 61% | 52% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Converted | 4/4 | 4/6 | 8/10 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 67% | 80% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 4 | 4 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 2/4 | 2 | |
| Saved % | – | 50% | 25% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLWWLWWL
LWWWWLWWLW Tennis Scores in Rome
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Marcos GironGiron (6-3 1-6 6-1) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Hugo DellienDellien (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Sebastian OfnerOfner (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Jesper De JongDe Jong (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Jakub MensikMensik – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (6-4 7-62) – See score progression
- Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (7-5 2-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Tommy PaulPaul – Tomas MachacMachac (6-3 6-75 6-4) – See score progression
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Jack DraperDraper – Vit KoprivaKopriva (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Corentin MoutetMoutet – Holger RuneRune (7-5 5-7 7-64) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Vilius GaubasGaubas (6-4 6-0) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Laslo DjereDjere (7-62 6-2) – See score progression
- Arthur FilsFils – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (2-6 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Francesco PassaroPassaro (6-3 6-0) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Jesper De JongDe Jong (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Sebastian OfnerOfner (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (7-5 2-0 ret.) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-4) – H2H and prediction
- Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Tommy PaulPaul – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (0-5) – H2H and prediction
- Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Casper RuudRuud (1-5) – H2H and prediction
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Jack DraperDraper – Corentin MoutetMoutet (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-2) – H2H and prediction
