Alexey Vatutin and Daniel Merida Aguilar will play each other in the 1^st round of the Oeiras 5 Challenger for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 1:30 pm on COURT 4. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniel Merida Aguilar who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Daniel Merida Aguilar is the pick to win this match.
Daniel Merida Aguilar -> 1.67
Alexey Vatutin -> 2.1

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Prediction and head to head Alexey Vatutin vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar

This will be the 2^nd time that Alexey Vatutin and Daniel Merida Aguilar fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Vatutin (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.

The last time that they fought against each other, Vatutin won 6-7(10) 6-4 6-4 in the qualifications in the Madrid Challenger back in 2023.

Alexey Vatutin

Ranked no. 313, Alexey reached the 1^st round after defeating Tiago Valentim 6-0 6-3 and Pietro Orlando Fellin 6-1 6-2.

In the qualifications, Alexey had a good straight sets win against Orlando Fellin (6-1 6-2). During the match, Vatutin scored 59 points vs Orlando Fellin’s 36. Alexey was pretty aggressive to blast 24 winners.

Regarding the service games, Vatutin scored just 1 ace and he committed only 2 double faults. Alexey Vatutin lost the serve twice and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Vatutin put 70% of his first serves in, winning 60% (24/40) of the points behind his 1st serve and 53% (9/17) on the 2nd serve. Vatutin was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Orlando Fellin 6 times.

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Russian started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to conquer 63% of the points he played.

Vatutin has good win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 54% of his matches (349-292). 12-4 on clay in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Vatutin has an aggregate 180-142 win-loss record in the last years on clay.

Alexey has a composed 19-11 win-loss record in 2025, 12-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Oeiras 5 Challenger

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Ranked no. 335, Daniel reached the 1^st round after beating Diogo Coelho 6-0 6-1 and Alejo Sanchez Quilez 6-4 2-6 6-3.

In the qualifications, Daniel defeated Sanchez Quilez (6-4 2-6 6-3).During the match Merida scored less points (4) than Sanchez Quilez. In fact, the world no. 313 won 87 points vs Sanchez Quilez’s. That means that Merida was more focused during the important points. Daniel was very aggressive to blast 44 winners.

Talking about serving, Merida fired 2 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Daniel Merida Aguilar lost the serve 4 times and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Merida put 78% of his first serves in, winning 60% (44/73) of the points behind his 1st serve and 30% (6/20) on the 2nd serve. Daniel broke Sanchez Quilez 5 times after converting 56% of his break points (5/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Daniel started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points he played.

Daniel’s best result of the season was getting to the final in M25 Doha and M25 Sabadell.

Daniel has a compiled 18-7 win-loss record in 2025, 13-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Vatutin	Merida
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	4	5
Tot Games	30	40
Pts	118-68	140-107
Total Points	186	247
Winners	44	62
%Winners	37%	44%

Both Vatutin and Merida played 2 matches. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.At the moment, Daniel Merida Aguilar dropped 1 set while Alexey Vatutin hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Vatutin has played 1 set(s) less than Merida (4 vs 5). Therefore, Vatutin played 10 games less than Merida. The Russian scored 44 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Merida bagged 62 winners (44%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Vatutin	Merida
Aces	1	2
Avg per match	0.5	1
1st in	67/98	94/126
%1st in	68%	75%
1st pts	44/67	62/94
%1st pts	66%	66%
2nd pts	17/31	16/32
%2nd pts	55%	50%

Vatutin blasted 1 ace (0.5 per match). Merida also blasted 2 aces (1 per match). Vatutin won 66% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Merida won 66% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 50% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Vatutin	Merida
Won	12	10
Converted	12/17	10/17
% Converted	71%	59%
Conceded	9	11
Saved	6	7
% Saved	67%	64%
Times Broken	3	4

Alexey broke his opponents 12 times with a 71% conversion rate. Alexey surrendered his serve 3 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. Merida broke his opponents 10 times with a 59% conversion rate. The Spaniard conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded.

Vatutin
	Q1 Valentim	Q3 Orlando	Total
Score	6-0 6-3	6-1 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	15	15	30
pts	59-32	59-36	118-68
Total points	91	95	186
Winners	20	24	44
%Winners	34%	41%	37%
SERVE
Aces	0	1	1
Double Faults	0	2	2
1st in	27/41	40/57	67/98
% 1st in	66%	70%	68%
1st pts	20/27	24/40	44/67
% 1st pts	74%	60%	66%
2nd pts	8/14	9/17	17/31
% 2nd pts	57%	53%	55%
Breaks
Won	6	6	12
Converted	6/11	6/6	12/17
Converted %	55%	100%	71%
Conceded	3	6	9
Saved	2/3	4/6	6
Saved %	67%	67%	67%
Times Broken	1	2	3

Merida
	Q1 Coelho	Q3 Sanchez Quilez	Total
Score	6-0 6-1	6-4 2-6 6-3
Tot Set	2	3	5
Tot Games	13	27	40
pts	53-16	87-91	140-107
Total points	69	178	247
Winners	18	44	62
%Winners	34%	51%	44%
SERVE
Aces	0	2	2
Double Faults	0	4	4
1st in	21/33	73/93	94/126
% 1st in	64%	78%	75%
1st pts	18/21	44/73	62/94
% 1st pts	86%	60%	66%
2nd pts	10/12	6/20	16/32
% 2nd pts	83%	30%	50%
Breaks
Won	5	5	10
Converted	5/8	5/9	10/17
Converted %	63%	56%	59%
Conceded	0	11	11
Saved	0/0	7/11	7
Saved %	–	64%	32%
Times Broken	0	4	4

Tennis Scores in Oeiras 5 Challenger

• Yibing WuWu – Tristan BoyerBoyer (7-6⁴ 4-6 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Roman Andres BurruchagaAndres Burruchaga – James McCabeMcCabe (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• James Kent TrotterKent Trotter – Sascha Gueymard WayenburgGueymard Wayenburg (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Genaro Alberto OlivieriAlberto Olivieri – Shintaro MochizukiMochizuki (2-6 7-6⁶ 3-0 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Mitchell KruegerKrueger – Thiago Moura MonteiroMoura Monteiro (6-2 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Christopher EubanksEubanks – Pedro AraujoAraujo (6-1 5-7 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Hady HabibHabib – Nicolas Moreno De AlboranMoreno De Alboran (6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Christian GarinGarin – Juan Pablo FicovichPablo Ficovich (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Carlos TabernerTaberner – Pedro CachinCachin (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Eero VasaVasa – Joao DominguesDomingues (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues AlvesMeligeni Rodrigues Alves – Elias YmerYmer (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Giulio ZeppieriZeppieri – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Ryan NijboerNijboer – Thiago Agustin TiranteAgustin Tirante (0-0) – H2H and prediction