Jasmine Paolini and Jelena Ostapenko will play each other in the 4th round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 12:30 pm on CAMPO CENTRALE. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jasmine Paolini who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jasmine Paolini is the pick to win this match.
Jasmine Paolini -> 1.78
Jelena Ostapenko -> 2.04

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Prediction and head to head Jasmine Paolini vs. Jelena Ostapenko

This will be the 4th time that Jasmine Paolini and Jelena Ostapenko square off. The head to head is 2-1 for Ostapenko (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.

The last time that they competed against each other, Ostapenko won 6-2 6-2 in the 3rd round in Doha back in February 2025.

Highlights Jelena Ostapenko vs Jasmine Paolini – Doha 12-February-2025

Jasmine Paolini

Jasmine Paolini

18 - 8win/loss

Hard
12-6
I Hard
0-0
Clay
6-2
Rank
8
High
4
LLLLWWLWWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 46-21 27-12 13-3 3-3 3-3 0-0
2024 42-21 19-10 12-5 3-4 8-2 0-0
2023 43-30 20-16 16-8 5-3 2-3 0-0
2022 30-25 14-11 10-10 6-3 0-1 0-0
2021 34-24 17-13 12-7 5-3 0-1 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 5, Jasmine reached the 4th round after beating Lulu Sun 6-4 6-3 and Ons Jabeur 6-4 6-3.

In the 3rd round, Paolini had a good straight sets win against Jabeur (6-4 6-3). During the match, Paolini scored 63 points vs Jabeur’s 43. The Italian was very aggressive to blast 27 winners.

Talking about the service games, Paolini scored just 1 ace in the match and she committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Jasmine Paolini was pretty efficient on serve to win 73% (27/37) of her 1st serve and 64% (9/14) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve twice. Jasmine broke Jabeur 4 times after converting 44% of her break points (4/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Jasmine hasn’t lost yet a set in this competition to conquer 58% of the points she played.

Paolini has good match record in the last 10 years having won 58% of her matches (328-239). 6-2 on clay in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Paolini has an aggregate 161-96 match record in the last years on clay.

Paolini’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in Miami and Stuttgart.

The Italian has an aggregate 18-8 win-loss record in 2025, 6-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rome

Rome
Paolini's Record

Jelena Ostapenko

Jelena Ostapenko

13 - 10win/loss

Hard
6-8
I Hard
0-0
Clay
7-2
Rank
23
High
5
LLLLWLLWLL
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 18-20 8-14 9-4 0-0 1-2 0-0
2024 31-19 14-10 8-6 4-0 5-3 0-0
2023 37-22 21-15 7-4 1-1 8-2 0-0
2022 33-19 19-10 3-3 3-3 8-3 0-0
2021 32-19 12-9 5-4 7-4 8-2 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 18, the Latvian got to the 4th round after defeating Rebecca Sramkova 1-6 6-4 6-3 and Laura Siegemund w/o.

In the 3rd round, The Latvian defeated Siegemund (w/o). During the match Ostapenko and Siegemund scored the same amount of points (). However, the world no. 5 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Jelena was not very aggressive do strike just winners.

Talking about serving, Ostapenko couldn’t to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she was quite solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Jelena Ostapenko conceded no breaks for the entire match to put 0% of her first serves in, win 0% (/) of the points behind her 1st serve and 0% (/) on the 2nd serve.

Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Stuttgart where she overcame Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-4 6-1.

Jelena has a compiled 13-10 win-loss record in 2025, 7-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rome

Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2023. See her history

.
Rome
Ostapenko's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

J.Paolini
J.Ostapenko
!
2h:41
2h:41
Time on court​
1h:46
1h:46
1h:11
1h:11
Last match​
1h:46
1h:46
!
2
2
Match played
1
1
38
38
Games Played​
26
26
4
4
Set played​​
3
3
138
138
Total points​
81
81
69
69
Avg point​
81
81
50
50
Winners
29
29
25
25
Avg Winners​
29
29
36%
36%
Ratio winners
36%
36%
-- Serve --
1
1
Aces
4
4
0.5
0.5
Avg Aces
4
4
2
2
Double Faults
8
8
1
1
Avg Double Faults
!
8
8
50/71
50/71
1st won total​
29/42
29/42
70%
70%
1st won %
69%
69%
25/39
25/39
2nd won total​
11/33
11/33
!
64%
64%
2nd won %
!
33%
33%
-- Break Points --
8/23
8/23
BP won
6/9
6/9
4/11.5
4/11.5
Avg BP won
6/9
6/9
35%
35%
Won
!
67%
67%
6
6
Conceded
11
11
3
3
Avg Conceded
11
11
4
4
Broken
6
6
2
2
Avg Broken
!
6
6
2
2
Saved
5
5
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Paolini Ostapenko
Match played 2 1
Tot Set 4 3
Tot Games 38 26
Pts 138-99 81-79
Total Points 237 160
Winners 50 29
%Winners 36% 36%

Paolini played 2 matches while Ostapenko competed in 1 match. At the moment, Jelena Ostapenko conceded 1 set while Jasmine Paolini hasn’t dropped a set so far. Paolini has played 1 set more than Ostapenko (4 vs 3). Therefore, Paolini played 12 games more than Ostapenko. Jasmine scored 50 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, The Latvian made 29 winners (36%).

Serve Performance

Serve Paolini Ostapenko
Aces 1 4
Avg per match 0.5 4
1st in 71/110 42/75
%1st in 65% 56%
1st pts 50/71 29/42
%1st pts 70% 69%
2nd pts 25/39 11/33
%2nd pts 64% 33%

Paolini scored 1 ace (0.5 per match). Ostapenko also made 4 aces . Paolini won 70% points behind her first serve. She quite strong on her second serve to win 64% of the points. On the other side, Ostapenko won 69% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 33% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Paolini Ostapenko
Won 8 6
Converted 8/23 6/9
% Converted 35% 67%
Conceded 6 11
Saved 2 5
% Saved 33% 45%
Times Broken 4 6

The Italian broke her opponents 8 times with a 35% conversion rate. Paolini surrendered her serve 4 times and she saved 33% of the break points that she conceded. Ostapenko broke her opponent 6 times with a 67% conversion rate. The Latvian conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 45% of the break points that she conceded.

Paolini
R2
Sun		 R3
Jabeur		 Total
Score 6-4 6-3 6-4 6-3
Tot Set 2 2 4
Tot Games 19 19 38
pts 75-56 63-43 138-99
Total points 131 106 237
Winners 23 27 50
%Winners 31% 43% 36%
SERVE
Aces 0 1 1
Double Faults 1 1 2
1st in 34/59 37/51 71/110
% 1st in 58% 73% 65%
1st pts 23/34 27/37 50/71
% 1st pts 68% 73% 70%
2nd pts 16/25 9/14 25/39
% 2nd pts 64% 64% 64%
Breaks
Won 4 4 8
Converted 4/14 4/9 8/23
Converted % 29% 44% 35%
Conceded 3 3 6
Saved 1/3 1/3 2
Saved % 33% 33% 33%
Times Broken 2 2 4
Ostapenko
R2
Sramkova		 R3
Siegemund		 Total
Score 1-6 6-4 6-3 w/o
Tot Set 3 – 3
Tot Games 26 – 26
pts 81-79 – 81-79
Total points 160 – 160
Winners 29 – 29
%Winners 36% – 36%
SERVE
Aces 4 – 4
Double Faults 8 – 8
1st in 42/75 – 42/75
% 1st in 56% – 56%
1st pts 29/42 – 29/42
% 1st pts 69% – 69%
2nd pts 11/33 – 11/33
% 2nd pts 33% – 33%
Breaks
Won 6 – 6
Converted 6/9 – 6/9
Converted % 67% – 67%
Conceded 11 – 11
Saved 5/11 – 5
Saved % 45% – 23%
Times Broken 6 – 6

Tennis Scores in Rome

Upcoming matches in the draw

Paolini
More Stats
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Ostapenko

Click for FULL STATS