Jasmine Paolini and Jelena Ostapenko will play each other in the 4th round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 12:30 pm on CAMPO CENTRALE. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jasmine Paolini who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jasmine Paolini is the pick to win this match.
Jasmine Paolini -> 1.78
Jelena Ostapenko -> 2.04
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Prediction and head to head Jasmine Paolini vs. Jelena Ostapenko
This will be the 4th time that Jasmine Paolini and Jelena Ostapenko square off. The head to head is 2-1 for Ostapenko (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they competed against each other, Ostapenko won 6-2 6-2 in the 3rd round in Doha back in February 2025.
Highlights Jelena Ostapenko vs Jasmine Paolini – Doha 12-February-2025
Jasmine Paolini
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 46-21 | 27-12 | 13-3 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 42-21 | 19-10 | 12-5 | 3-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-30 | 20-16 | 16-8 | 5-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-25 | 14-11 | 10-10 | 6-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 34-24 | 17-13 | 12-7 | 5-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5, Jasmine reached the 4th round after beating Lulu Sun 6-4 6-3 and Ons Jabeur 6-4 6-3.
In the 3rd round, Paolini had a good straight sets win against Jabeur (6-4 6-3). During the match, Paolini scored 63 points vs Jabeur’s 43. The Italian was very aggressive to blast 27 winners.
Talking about the service games, Paolini scored just 1 ace in the match and she committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Jasmine Paolini was pretty efficient on serve to win 73% (27/37) of her 1st serve and 64% (9/14) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve twice. Jasmine broke Jabeur 4 times after converting 44% of her break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Jasmine hasn’t lost yet a set in this competition to conquer 58% of the points she played.
Paolini has good match record in the last 10 years having won 58% of her matches (328-239). 6-2 on clay in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Paolini has an aggregate 161-96 match record in the last years on clay.
Paolini’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in Miami and Stuttgart.
The Italian has an aggregate 18-8 win-loss record in 2025, 6-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Jelena Ostapenko
13 - 10win/loss
23
5
LLLLWLLWLL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18-20 | 8-14 | 9-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 31-19 | 14-10 | 8-6 | 4-0 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-22 | 21-15 | 7-4 | 1-1 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-19 | 19-10 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 32-19 | 12-9 | 5-4 | 7-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 18, the Latvian got to the 4th round after defeating Rebecca Sramkova 1-6 6-4 6-3 and Laura Siegemund w/o.
In the 3rd round, The Latvian defeated Siegemund (w/o). During the match Ostapenko and Siegemund scored the same amount of points (). However, the world no. 5 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Jelena was not very aggressive do strike just winners.
Talking about serving, Ostapenko couldn’t to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she was quite solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Jelena Ostapenko conceded no breaks for the entire match to put 0% of her first serves in, win 0% (/) of the points behind her 1st serve and 0% (/) on the 2nd serve.
Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Stuttgart where she overcame Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-4 6-1.
Jelena has a compiled 13-10 win-loss record in 2025, 7-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Paolini | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 38 | 26 |
| Pts | 138-99 | 81-79 |
| Total Points | 237 | 160 |
| Winners | 50 | 29 |
| %Winners | 36% | 36% |
Paolini played 2 matches while Ostapenko competed in 1 match. At the moment, Jelena Ostapenko conceded 1 set while Jasmine Paolini hasn’t dropped a set so far. Paolini has played 1 set more than Ostapenko (4 vs 3). Therefore, Paolini played 12 games more than Ostapenko. Jasmine scored 50 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, The Latvian made 29 winners (36%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Paolini | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 4 |
| Avg per match | 0.5 | 4 |
| 1st in | 71/110 | 42/75 |
| %1st in | 65% | 56% |
| 1st pts | 50/71 | 29/42 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 69% |
| 2nd pts | 25/39 | 11/33 |
| %2nd pts | 64% | 33% |
Paolini scored 1 ace (0.5 per match). Ostapenko also made 4 aces . Paolini won 70% points behind her first serve. She quite strong on her second serve to win 64% of the points. On the other side, Ostapenko won 69% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 33% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Paolini | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 6 |
| Converted | 8/23 | 6/9 |
| % Converted | 35% | 67% |
| Conceded | 6 | 11 |
| Saved | 2 | 5 |
| % Saved | 33% | 45% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 6 |
The Italian broke her opponents 8 times with a 35% conversion rate. Paolini surrendered her serve 4 times and she saved 33% of the break points that she conceded. Ostapenko broke her opponent 6 times with a 67% conversion rate. The Latvian conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 45% of the break points that she conceded.
| Paolini | ||||
| R2 Sun |
R3 Jabeur |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 19 | 38 | |
| pts | 75-56 | 63-43 | 138-99 | |
| Total points | 131 | 106 | 237 | |
| Winners | 23 | 27 | 50 | |
| %Winners | 31% | 43% | 36% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 34/59 | 37/51 | 71/110 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 73% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 23/34 | 27/37 | 50/71 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 73% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/25 | 9/14 | 25/39 | |
| % 2nd pts | 64% | 64% | 64% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Converted | 4/14 | 4/9 | 8/23 | |
| Converted % | 29% | 44% | 35% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Saved | 1/3 | 1/3 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 33% | 33% | 33% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Ostapenko | ||||
| R2 Sramkova |
R3 Siegemund |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 1-6 6-4 6-3 | w/o | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | – | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | – | 26 | |
| pts | 81-79 | – | 81-79 | |
| Total points | 160 | – | 160 | |
| Winners | 29 | – | 29 | |
| %Winners | 36% | – | 36% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 4 | – | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 8 | – | 8 | |
| 1st in | 42/75 | – | 42/75 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | – | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 29/42 | – | 29/42 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | – | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/33 | – | 11/33 | |
| % 2nd pts | 33% | – | 33% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 6 | – | 6 | |
| Converted | 6/9 | – | 6/9 | |
| Converted % | 67% | – | 67% | |
| Conceded | 11 | – | 11 | |
| Saved | 5/11 | – | 5 | |
| Saved % | 45% | – | 23% | |
| Times Broken | 6 | – | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
LLLLWWLWWW
LLLLWLLWLL Tennis Scores in Rome
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Bianca Vanessa AndreescuVanessa Andreescu – Elena RybakinaRybakina (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Magda LinetteLinette (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Sofia KeninKenin (3-6 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova (5-7 6-0 6-1) – See score progression
- Naomi OsakaOsaka – Marie BouzkovaBouzkova (4-6 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Peyton StearnsStearns – Madison KeysKeys (2-6 6-2 7-63) – See score progression
- Diana ShnaiderShnaider – Jaqueline CristianCristian (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (6-1 7-5) – See score progression
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Hailey BaptisteBaptiste (6-4 3-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Laura SiegemundSiegemund (w/o) – See score progression
- Elise MertensMertens – Jessica PegulaPegula (7-5 6-1) – See score progression
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Ons JabeurJabeur (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Sofia KeninKenin (3-6 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Bianca Vanessa AndreescuVanessa Andreescu – Elena RybakinaRybakina (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Magda LinetteLinette (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova (5-7 6-0 6-1) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Magdalena FrechFrech – Qinwen ZhengZheng (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Clara TausonTauson (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Marta KostyukKostyuk (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – Emma RaducanuRaducanu (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Peyton StearnsStearns – Naomi OsakaOsaka (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins (1-2) – H2H and prediction
