H2H, prediction of Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk in Rome with odds, preview, pick | 12th May 2025

PREVIEW. Rome. Sabalenka and Kostyuk will face off in the 4th round of the Internazionali BNL d'Italia. See the prediction, H2H stats, odds, and preview of their next match on Monday the 12th of May

By
Mark Hall
-
Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marta Kostyuk

Aryna Sabalenka and Marta Kostyuk will clash against each other in the 4th round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 8:30 pm on CAMPO CENTRALE. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.22
Marta Kostyuk -> 4.3

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Soccer Tonic Predictions

Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marta Kostyuk

This will be the 4th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Marta Kostyuk clash against each other. The head to head is 3-0 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on clay.

The last time that they played, Sabalenka won 7-6(4) 7-6(7) in the quarter in Madrid back in April 2025.

Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk – Madrid 30-April-2025

Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka

33 - 5win/loss

Hard
23-4
I Hard
0-0
Clay
10-1
Rank
1
High
1
LWWWWWWLWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 40-7 23-4 17-3 0-0 0-0 0-0
2024 56-14 38-7 15-4 2-2 1-1 0-0
2023 55-14 35-9 14-3 0-0 6-2 0-0
2022 33-22 20-15 9-5 0-0 4-2 0-0
2021 45-18 24-11 13-3 1-1 7-3 0-0
See all years

Currently world no. 1 Sabalenka got to the 4th round after defeating Anastasia Potapova 6-2 6-2 and Sofia Kenin 3-6 6-3 6-3.

In the 3rd round against Kenin, Sabalenka recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-3 6-3). During the match, Sabalenka scored 107 points vs Kenin’s 96. Sabalenka was extremely aggressive to blast 29 winners.

Talking about the service games, Sabalenka blasted 5 aces and she committed only 5 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 5 times and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 62% of her first serves in, winning 60% (29/48) of the points behind her 1st serve and 52% (15/29) on the 2nd serve. The Belarussian broke Kenin 6 times after converting 26% of her break points (6/23).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Sabalenka has surrendered 1 set in this event to win 55% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a tremendous win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (407-173). 10-1 on clay in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has a composed 87-40 match record in the last years on clay.

Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Brisbane where she beat Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2 and in Miami where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 6-2 and in Madrid where she beat Cori Gauff in the final 6-3 7-6(3).

The Belarussian has an aggregate 33-5 win-loss record in 2025, 10-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rome

Sabalenka
Rome
Sabalenka's Record

Marta Kostyuk

Marta Kostyuk
Marta Kostyuk

17 - 10win/loss

Hard
10-8
I Hard
0-0
Clay
7-2
Rank
26
High
16
LLWWWLWWWL
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 17-12 10-8 7-4 0-0 0-0 0-0
2024 34-22 24-14 8-5 0-0 2-3 0-0
2023 26-22 22-16 2-4 0-0 2-2 0-0
2022 28-20 18-11 3-4 4-3 3-2 0-0
2021 25-17 8-9 10-4 3-1 4-3 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 27, Marta got to the 4th round after beating Alexandra Eala 6-0 6-1, Daria Kasatkina 6-4 6-2 and Leylah Annie Fernandez 6-4 6-2.

In the 3rd round, Marta had a good straight sets win against Annie Fernandez (6-4 6-2). During the match Kostyuk scored 71 points vs Annie Fernandez’s 55. The Ukrainian was very aggressive to blast 31 winners.

Talking about serving, Kostyuk scored 5 aces and she committed only 5 double faults. Marta Kostyuk lost the serve once and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Kostyuk put 66% of her first serves in, winning 76% (31/41) of the points behind her 1st serve and 48% (10/21) on the 2nd serve. Kostyuk broke Annie Fernandez 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Marta hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 59% of the points she played.

Marta has a compiled 17-10 win-loss record in 2025, 7-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rome

Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2023. See her history.

Kostyuk
Rome
Kostyuk's Record
Bonus
Soccer Tonic Predictions

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

A.Sabalenka
M.Kostyuk
3h:16
3h:16
Time on court​
4h:03
4h:03
!
2h:13
2h:13
Last match​
1h:34
1h:34
2
2
Match played
!
3
3
43
43
Games Played​
49
49
5
5
Set played​​
6
6
165
165
Total points​
201
201
82.5
82.5
Avg point​
67
67
53
53
Winners
70
70
26.5
26.5
Avg Winners​
23.3
23.3
32%
32%
Ratio winners
35%
35%
-- Serve --
5
5
Aces
10
10
2.5
2.5
Avg Aces
3.3
3.3
5
5
Double Faults
11
11
2.5
2.5
Avg Double Faults
3.7
3.7
53/78
53/78
1st won total​
70/97
70/97
68%
68%
1st won %
!
72%
72%
24/42
24/42
2nd won total​
32/61
32/61
57%
57%
2nd won %
52%
52%
-- Break Points --
10/30
10/30
BP won
16/31
16/31
5/15
5/15
Avg BP won
5.3/10.3
5.3/10.3
33%
33%
Won
!
52%
52%
8
8
Conceded
12
12
4
4
Avg Conceded
4
4
5
5
Broken
4
4
2.5
2.5
Avg Broken
1.3
1.3
3
3
Saved
8
8
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Sabalenka Kostyuk
Match played 2 3
Tot Set 5 6
Tot Games 43 49
Pts 165-135 201-141
Total Points 300 342
Winners 53 70
%Winners 32% 35%

Sabalenka played 2 matches while Kostyuk competed in 3 matches. At the moment, Aryna Sabalenka lost 1 set while Marta Kostyuk hasn’t dropped a set so far. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Kostyuk (5 vs 6). Therefore, Sabalenka played 6 games less than Kostyuk. Sabalenka scored 53 winners (32% of the total points). On the other side, The Ukrainian scored 70 winners (35%).

Serve Performance

Serve Sabalenka Kostyuk
Aces 5 10
Avg per match 2.5 3.3
1st in 78/120 97/158
%1st in 65% 61%
1st pts 53/78 70/97
%1st pts 68% 72%
2nd pts 24/42 32/61
%2nd pts 57% 52%

Sabalenka bagged 5 aces (2.5 per match). Kostyuk bagged 10 aces (3.3 per match). Sabalenka won 68% points behind her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Kostyuk won 72% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 52% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Sabalenka Kostyuk
Won 10 16
Converted 10/30 16/31
% Converted 33% 52%
Conceded 8 12
Saved 3 8
% Saved 38% 67%
Times Broken 5 4

The Belarussian broke her opponents 10 times with a 33% conversion rate. Aryna surrendered her serve 5 times and she saved 38% of the break points that she conceded. The Ukrainian broke her opponents 16 times with a 52% conversion rate. The Ukrainian conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
R2
Potapova		 R3
Kenin		 Total
Score 6-2 6-2 3-6 6-3 6-3
Tot Set 2 3 5
Tot Games 16 27 43
pts 58-39 107-96 165-135
Total points 97 203 300
Winners 24 29 53
%Winners 41% 27% 32%
SERVE
Aces 0 5 5
Double Faults 0 5 5
1st in 30/43 48/77 78/120
% 1st in 70% 62% 65%
1st pts 24/30 29/48 53/78
% 1st pts 80% 60% 68%
2nd pts 9/13 15/29 24/42
% 2nd pts 69% 52% 57%
Breaks
Won 4 6 10
Converted 4/7 6/23 10/30
Converted % 57% 26% 33%
Conceded 0 8 8
Saved 0/0 3/8 3
Saved % – 38% 19%
Times Broken 0 5 5
Kostyuk
R1
Eala		 R2
Kasatkina		 R3
Annie		 Total
Score 6-0 6-1 6-4 6-2 6-4 6-2
Tot Set 2 2 2 6
Tot Games 13 18 18 49
pts 59-30 71-56 71-55 201-141
Total points 89 127 126 342
Winners 11 28 31 70
%Winners 19% 39% 44% 35%
SERVE
Aces 2 3 5 10
Double Faults 0 6 5 11
1st in 13/29 43/67 41/62 97/158
% 1st in 45% 64% 66% 61%
1st pts 11/13 28/43 31/41 70/97
% 1st pts 85% 65% 76% 72%
2nd pts 13/16 9/24 10/21 32/61
% 2nd pts 81% 38% 48% 52%
Breaks
Won 6 6 4 16
Converted 6/17 6/6 4/8 16/31
Converted % 35% 100% 50% 52%
Conceded 0 9 3 12
Saved 0/0 6/9 2/3 8
Saved % – 67% 67% 67%
Times Broken 0 3 1 4

Head 2 Head

Aryna Sabalenka
  • 3Slam
  • 20Main
  • 4ITF
  • 2Minor
Marta Kostyuk
  • 0Slam
  • 1Main
  • 3ITF
  • 0Minor

Aryna
Sabalenka

4:0

Marta
Kostyuk

Rank

1

High

1

1Hard0

3Clay0

Rank

26

High

16

Win Loss
Sabalenka
LWWWWWWLWW
Kostyuk
LLWWWLWWWL
2025 2024 2023
40 - 7
17 - 12
23-4
Hard
10-8
17-3
Clay
7-4

Tennis Scores in Rome

See Updated Draw
Soccer Tonic Predictions
Bonus

Upcoming matches in the draw

Sabalenka Aryna Sabalenka
More Stats
Click here
Kostyuk
Marta Kostyuk