
Aryna Sabalenka and Marta Kostyuk will clash against each other in the 4th round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 8:30 pm on CAMPO CENTRALE. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.22
Marta Kostyuk -> 4.3
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marta Kostyuk
This will be the 4th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Marta Kostyuk clash against each other. The head to head is 3-0 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on clay.
The last time that they played, Sabalenka won 7-6(4) 7-6(7) in the quarter in Madrid back in April 2025.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk – Madrid 30-April-2025
Aryna Sabalenka
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 40-7 | 23-4 | 17-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Sabalenka got to the 4th round after defeating Anastasia Potapova 6-2 6-2 and Sofia Kenin 3-6 6-3 6-3.
In the 3rd round against Kenin, Sabalenka recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-3 6-3). During the match, Sabalenka scored 107 points vs Kenin’s 96. Sabalenka was extremely aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka blasted 5 aces and she committed only 5 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 5 times and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 62% of her first serves in, winning 60% (29/48) of the points behind her 1st serve and 52% (15/29) on the 2nd serve. The Belarussian broke Kenin 6 times after converting 26% of her break points (6/23).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sabalenka has surrendered 1 set in this event to win 55% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a tremendous win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (407-173). 10-1 on clay in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has a composed 87-40 match record in the last years on clay.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Brisbane where she beat Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2 and in Miami where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 6-2 and in Madrid where she beat Cori Gauff in the final 6-3 7-6(3).
The Belarussian has an aggregate 33-5 win-loss record in 2025, 10-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Marta Kostyuk
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 17-12 | 10-8 | 7-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2024 | 34-22 | 24-14 | 8-5 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
2023 | 26-22 | 22-16 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
2022 | 28-20 | 18-11 | 3-4 | 4-3 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
2021 | 25-17 | 8-9 | 10-4 | 3-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 27, Marta got to the 4th round after beating Alexandra Eala 6-0 6-1, Daria Kasatkina 6-4 6-2 and Leylah Annie Fernandez 6-4 6-2.
In the 3rd round, Marta had a good straight sets win against Annie Fernandez (6-4 6-2). During the match Kostyuk scored 71 points vs Annie Fernandez’s 55. The Ukrainian was very aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Talking about serving, Kostyuk scored 5 aces and she committed only 5 double faults. Marta Kostyuk lost the serve once and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Kostyuk put 66% of her first serves in, winning 76% (31/41) of the points behind her 1st serve and 48% (10/21) on the 2nd serve. Kostyuk broke Annie Fernandez 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Marta hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 59% of the points she played.
Marta has a compiled 17-10 win-loss record in 2025, 7-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
Points | Sabalenka | Kostyuk |
---|---|---|
Match played | 2 | 3 |
Tot Set | 5 | 6 |
Tot Games | 43 | 49 |
Pts | 165-135 | 201-141 |
Total Points | 300 | 342 |
Winners | 53 | 70 |
%Winners | 32% | 35% |
Sabalenka played 2 matches while Kostyuk competed in 3 matches. At the moment, Aryna Sabalenka lost 1 set while Marta Kostyuk hasn’t dropped a set so far. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Kostyuk (5 vs 6). Therefore, Sabalenka played 6 games less than Kostyuk. Sabalenka scored 53 winners (32% of the total points). On the other side, The Ukrainian scored 70 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
Serve | Sabalenka | Kostyuk |
---|---|---|
Aces | 5 | 10 |
Avg per match | 2.5 | 3.3 |
1st in | 78/120 | 97/158 |
%1st in | 65% | 61% |
1st pts | 53/78 | 70/97 |
%1st pts | 68% | 72% |
2nd pts | 24/42 | 32/61 |
%2nd pts | 57% | 52% |
Sabalenka bagged 5 aces (2.5 per match). Kostyuk bagged 10 aces (3.3 per match). Sabalenka won 68% points behind her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Kostyuk won 72% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 52% of the points.
How they played the important points
Breaks | Sabalenka | Kostyuk |
---|---|---|
Won | 10 | 16 |
Converted | 10/30 | 16/31 |
% Converted | 33% | 52% |
Conceded | 8 | 12 |
Saved | 3 | 8 |
% Saved | 38% | 67% |
Times Broken | 5 | 4 |
The Belarussian broke her opponents 10 times with a 33% conversion rate. Aryna surrendered her serve 5 times and she saved 38% of the break points that she conceded. The Ukrainian broke her opponents 16 times with a 52% conversion rate. The Ukrainian conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded.
Sabalenka | ||||
R2 Potapova |
R3 Kenin |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-2 6-2 | 3-6 6-3 6-3 | ||
Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
Tot Games | 16 | 27 | 43 | |
pts | 58-39 | 107-96 | 165-135 | |
Total points | 97 | 203 | 300 | |
Winners | 24 | 29 | 53 | |
%Winners | 41% | 27% | 32% | |
SERVE | ||||
Aces | 0 | 5 | 5 | |
Double Faults | 0 | 5 | 5 | |
1st in | 30/43 | 48/77 | 78/120 | |
% 1st in | 70% | 62% | 65% | |
1st pts | 24/30 | 29/48 | 53/78 | |
% 1st pts | 80% | 60% | 68% | |
2nd pts | 9/13 | 15/29 | 24/42 | |
% 2nd pts | 69% | 52% | 57% | |
Breaks | ||||
Won | 4 | 6 | 10 | |
Converted | 4/7 | 6/23 | 10/30 | |
Converted % | 57% | 26% | 33% | |
Conceded | 0 | 8 | 8 | |
Saved | 0/0 | 3/8 | 3 | |
Saved % | – | 38% | 19% | |
Times Broken | 0 | 5 | 5 |
Kostyuk | |||||
R1 Eala |
R2 Kasatkina |
R3 Annie |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-0 6-1 | 6-4 6-2 | 6-4 6-2 | ||
Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
Tot Games | 13 | 18 | 18 | 49 | |
pts | 59-30 | 71-56 | 71-55 | 201-141 | |
Total points | 89 | 127 | 126 | 342 | |
Winners | 11 | 28 | 31 | 70 | |
%Winners | 19% | 39% | 44% | 35% | |
SERVE | |||||
Aces | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | |
Double Faults | 0 | 6 | 5 | 11 | |
1st in | 13/29 | 43/67 | 41/62 | 97/158 | |
% 1st in | 45% | 64% | 66% | 61% | |
1st pts | 11/13 | 28/43 | 31/41 | 70/97 | |
% 1st pts | 85% | 65% | 76% | 72% | |
2nd pts | 13/16 | 9/24 | 10/21 | 32/61 | |
% 2nd pts | 81% | 38% | 48% | 52% | |
Breaks | |||||
Won | 6 | 6 | 4 | 16 | |
Converted | 6/17 | 6/6 | 4/8 | 16/31 | |
Converted % | 35% | 100% | 50% | 52% | |
Conceded | 0 | 9 | 3 | 12 | |
Saved | 0/0 | 6/9 | 2/3 | 8 | |
Saved % | – | 67% | 67% | 67% | |
Times Broken | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Head 2 Head



Tennis Scores in Rome
- Bianca Vanessa AndreescuVanessa Andreescu – Elena RybakinaRybakina (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Magda LinetteLinette (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova (5-7 6-0 6-1) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Sofia KeninKenin (3-6 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Naomi OsakaOsaka – Marie BouzkovaBouzkova (4-6 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Peyton StearnsStearns – Madison KeysKeys (2-6 6-2 7-63) – See score progression
- Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (6-1 7-5) – See score progression
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Ons JabeurJabeur (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Diana ShnaiderShnaider – Jaqueline CristianCristian (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Laura SiegemundSiegemund (w/o) – See score progression
- Elise MertensMertens – Jessica PegulaPegula (7-5 6-1) – See score progression
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Hailey BaptisteBaptiste (6-4 3-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Sofia KeninKenin (3-6 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Bianca Vanessa AndreescuVanessa Andreescu – Elena RybakinaRybakina (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Magda LinetteLinette (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova (5-7 6-0 6-1) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Magdalena FrechFrech – Qinwen ZhengZheng (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Clara TausonTauson (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Marta KostyukKostyuk (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – Emma RaducanuRaducanu (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Peyton StearnsStearns – Naomi OsakaOsaka (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins (1-2) – H2H and prediction