Tommy Paul and Tomas Machac will face off in the 3rd round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 11:00 am on SUPERTENNIS ARENA. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Tommy Paul who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Tommy Paul is the pick to win this match.
Tommy Paul -> 1.66
Tomas Machac -> 2.22
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Prediction and head to head Tommy Paul vs. Tomas Machac
This will be the 3rd time that Tommy Paul and Tomas Machac fight against each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Machac (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.
The last time that they locked horns, Machac won 3-6 6-4 6-3 in the 4th round in Shanghai back in 2024.
Tommy Paul
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21-8 | 10-4 | 8-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-20 | 17-12 | 10-4 | 8-2 | 10-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-29 | 29-13 | 5-6 | 3-5 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-27 | 21-12 | 2-6 | 9-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 12-12 | 9-7 | 12-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 12, Tommy reached the 3rd round after defeating Roberto Bautista Agut 6-1 6-4.
In the 2nd round, Tommy had a good straight sets win against Bautista-Agut (6-1 6-4). During the match, Paul scored 57 points vs Bautista-Agut’s 41. The American was quite aggressive to blast 19 winners.
Talking about the service games, Paul blasted 2 aces and he was quite steady in conceding no double faults. Tommy Paul was pretty effective on serve to win 86% (19/22) of his 1st serve and 61% (14/23) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The American was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Bautista-Agut 4 times.
Paul has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (363-208). 5-2 on clay in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Paul has a composed 84-50 match record in the last years on clay.
Tommy’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in Adelaide, Dallas and Houston.
Paul has a composed 18-7 win-loss record in 2025, 5-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Tomas Machac
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16-8 | 11-4 | 2-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 37-24 | 22-11 | 9-5 | 5-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 52-27 | 15-10 | 16-11 | 18-5 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-19 | 24-6 | 5-2 | 18-10 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| 2021 | 28-19 | 5-4 | 5-4 | 12-6 | 2-3 | 4-2 |
Ranked no. 20 (career-high), Tomas got to the 3rd round after beating Learner Tien 6-4 6-4.
In the 2nd round, Machac had a good straight sets win against Tien (6-4 6-4). During the match Machac scored 65 points vs Tien’s 53. The Czech was pretty aggressive to blast 22 winners.
Talking about serving, Machac wasn’t able to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Tomas Machac lost the serve twice and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Machac put 46% of his first serves in, winning 88% (22/25) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (14/29) on the 2nd serve. The Czech broke Tien 4 times after converting 40% of his break points (4/10).
His best result of the current year was conquering the title in Acapulco where he beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the final 7-6(6) 6-2.
The Czech has an aggregate 16-7 win-loss record in 2025, 2-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Previously, his best result was reaching the qualifications in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Paul | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 17 | 20 |
| Pts | 57-41 | 65-53 |
| Total Points | 98 | 118 |
| Winners | 19 | 22 |
| %Winners | 33% | 34% |
Both Paul and Machac played 1 match. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Paul and Machac have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Paul played 3 games less than Machac. Tommy scored 19 winners (33% of the total points). On the other side, Tomas made 22 winners (34%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Paul | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 2 | 0 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 0 |
| 1st in | 22/45 | 25/54 |
| %1st in | 49% | 46% |
| 1st pts | 19/22 | 22/25 |
| %1st pts | 86% | 88% |
| 2nd pts | 14/23 | 14/29 |
| %2nd pts | 61% | 48% |
Paul scored 2 aces . Machac didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Paul won 86% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Machac won 88% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 48% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Paul | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 4 |
| Converted | 4/4 | 4/10 |
| % Converted | 100% | 40% |
| Conceded | 0 | 3 |
| Saved | 0 | 1 |
| % Saved | 0% | 33% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 |
Tommy broke his opponent 4 times with a 100% conversion rate. Paul pretty solid on his serve as he has never dropped a single service game after saving 0 break points. The Czech broke his opponent 4 times with a 40% conversion rate. Tomas conceded his serve twice and he saved 33% of the break points that he conceded.
| Paul | |||
| R2 Bautista-Agut |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 17 | |
| pts | 57-41 | 57-41 | |
| Total points | 98 | 98 | |
| Winners | 19 | 19 | |
| %Winners | 33% | 33% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | |
| 1st in | 22/45 | 22/45 | |
| % 1st in | 49% | 49% | |
| 1st pts | 19/22 | 19/22 | |
| % 1st pts | 86% | 86% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/23 | 14/23 | |
| % 2nd pts | 61% | 61% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/4 | 4/4 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 100% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 0 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 0 | |
| Saved % | – | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Machac | |||
| R2 Tien |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 20 | |
| pts | 65-53 | 65-53 | |
| Total points | 118 | 118 | |
| Winners | 22 | 22 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 34% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 0 | 0 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 25/54 | 25/54 | |
| % 1st in | 46% | 46% | |
| 1st pts | 22/25 | 22/25 | |
| % 1st pts | 88% | 88% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/29 | 14/29 | |
| % 2nd pts | 48% | 48% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/10 | 4/10 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 | |
| Saved | 1/3 | 1 | |
| Saved % | 33% | 33% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWLWWLW
LWLLWWWLWW Tennis Scores in Rome
- Jack DraperDraper – Vit KoprivaKopriva (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (6-4 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Vilius GaubasGaubas (6-4 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Arthur FilsFils – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (2-6 6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Corentin MoutetMoutet – Holger RuneRune (7-5 5-7 7-64) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Karen KhachanovKaren – Francesco PassaroFrancesco (6-3 6-0) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Hugo DellienDellien – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Marcos GironGiron – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Laslo DjereDjere – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Casper RuudRuud (3-4) – H2H and prediction
- Tommy PaulPaul – Tomas MachacMachac (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Sebastian KordaKorda (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Jesper De JongDe Jong (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Sebastian OfnerOfner (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jack DraperDraper – Corentin MoutetMoutet (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Francesco PassaroPassaro – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-2) – H2H and prediction
