Aryna Sabalenka and Sofia Kenin will clash against each other in the 3rd round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 11:00 am on CAMPO CENTRALE. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.141
Sofia Kenin -> 5.65
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Sofia Kenin
This will be the 5th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Sofia Kenin play each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), but Kenin leads 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they competed against each other, Sabalenka won 6-1 6-2 in the 1st round in Beijing back in 2023.
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 40-7 | 23-4 | 17-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 the Belarussian got to the 3rd round after beating Anastasia Potapova 6-2 6-2.
In the 2nd round, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Potapova (6-2 6-2). During the match, Sabalenka scored 58 points vs Potapova’s 39. Aryna was extremely aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka was unable to score even 1 ace during the match and she was extremely steady in conceding no double faults. Aryna Sabalenka was very effective on serve to win 80% (24/30) of her 1st serve and 69% (9/13) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Belarussian broke Potapova 4 times after converting 57% of her break points (4/7).
Sabalenka has a remarkable win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (406-173). 9-1 on clay in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has a composed 86-40 match record in the last years on clay.
Her best result of the year was conquering the title in Brisbane where she beat Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2 and in Miami where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 6-2 and in Madrid where she overcame Cori Gauff in the final 6-3 7-6(3).
Aryna has a compiled 32-5 win-loss record in 2025, 9-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Sofia Kenin
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21-13 | 12-8 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 16-26 | 10-17 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 27-21 | 17-12 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 10-17 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-10 | 7-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 31, the American reached the 3rd round after defeating Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-3 6-0.
In the 2nd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Pavlyuchenkova (6-3 6-0). During the match Kenin scored 56 points vs Pavlyuchenkova’s 32. Sofia was pretty aggressive to blast 18 winners.
About the serving games, Kenin struck 4 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Sofia Kenin was exceptionally effective on serve to win 72% (18/25) of her 1st serve and 74% (14/19) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Sofia was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Pavlyuchenkova 5 times.
Kenin’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in Charleston.
Kenin has an overall 19-10 win-loss record in 2025, 7-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rome
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2019, 2023 and 2024. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 16 | 15 |
| Pts | 58-39 | 56-32 |
| Total Points | 97 | 88 |
| Winners | 24 | 18 |
| %Winners | 41% | 32% |
Both Sabalenka and Kenin played 1 match. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Sabalenka and Kenin have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Sabalenka played 1 game more than Kenin. Sabalenka scored 24 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Kenin bagged 18 winners (32%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 0 | 4 |
| Avg per match | 0 | 4 |
| 1st in | 30/43 | 25/44 |
| %1st in | 70% | 57% |
| 1st pts | 24/30 | 18/25 |
| %1st pts | 80% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 9/13 | 14/19 |
| %2nd pts | 69% | 74% |
Sabalenka didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Kenin scored 4 aces . Sabalenka won 80% points on her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 69% of the points. On the other side, Kenin won 72% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 74% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 5 |
| Converted | 4/7 | 5/5 |
| % Converted | 57% | 100% |
| Conceded | 0 | 1 |
| Saved | 0 | 0 |
| % Saved | 0% | 0% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 |
Aryna broke her opponent 4 times with a 57% conversion rate. Aryna was rock solid on her serve as she has never dropped a single service game after saving 0 break points. Sofia broke her opponent 5 times with a 100% conversion rate. Sofia conceded her serve once and she saved 0% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||
| R2 Potapova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 16 | |
| pts | 58-39 | 58-39 | |
| Total points | 97 | 97 | |
| Winners | 24 | 24 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 41% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 0 | 0 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | |
| 1st in | 30/43 | 30/43 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 70% | |
| 1st pts | 24/30 | 24/30 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/13 | 9/13 | |
| % 2nd pts | 69% | 69% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 4/7 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 57% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 0 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 0 | |
| Saved % | – | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Kenin | |||
| R2 Pavlyuchenkova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 15 | |
| pts | 56-32 | 56-32 | |
| Total points | 88 | 88 | |
| Winners | 18 | 18 | |
| %Winners | 32% | 32% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 25/44 | 25/44 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 18/25 | 18/25 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/19 | 14/19 | |
| % 2nd pts | 74% | 74% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/5 | 5/5 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 100% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 0 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWWLWW
LWWLLWLWLW Tennis Scores in Rome
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Hailey BaptisteBaptiste (6-4 3-6 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Laura SiegemundSiegemund (w/o) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Ons JabeurJabeur (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Peyton StearnsStearns – Madison KeysKeys (2-6 6-2 7-63) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (6-1 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Diana ShnaiderShnaider – Jaqueline CristianCristian (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Sofia KeninKenin (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez – Marta KostyukKostyuk (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Bianca Vanessa AndreescuVanessa Andreescu (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Magdalena FrechFrech – Qinwen ZhengZheng (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – Magda LinetteLinette (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Clara TausonTauson (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Elise MertensMertens – Jessica PegulaPegula (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Marie BouzkovaBouzkova – Naomi OsakaOsaka (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins (1-2) – H2H and prediction
