Madison Keys and Peyton Stearns will clash against each other in the 3^rd round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 11:00 am on GRAND STAND ARENA. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.444
Peyton Stearns -> 2.77

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Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Peyton Stearns

This will be the 2^nd time that Madison Keys and Peyton Stearns play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Stearns (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.

The last time that they played, Stearns won 3-6 7-5 3-0 ret. in the 2^nd round in Toronto back in 2024.

Madison Keys

Ranked no. 6, the American reached the 3^rd round after defeating Varvara Gracheva 7-6(4) 6-1.

In the 2^nd round, Madison had a good straight sets win against Gracheva (7-6⁴ 6-1). During the match, Keys scored 95 points vs Gracheva’s 77. Madison was extremely aggressive to blast 42 winners.

Talking about the service games, Keys managed to score 3 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Madison Keys lost the serve twice and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 69% of her first serves in, winning 70% (42/60) of the points behind her 1st serve and 41% (11/27) on the 2nd serve. Keys broke Gracheva 4 times after converting 29% of her break points (4/14).

Keys has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (251-128). 5-2 on clay in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Keys has an aggregate 63-33 record in the last years on clay.

Her best result of the year was winning the title in Adelaide where she beat Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 4-6 6-1 and at the Australian Open where she overcame Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-3 2-6 7-5.

Madison has a composed 24-5 win-loss record in 2025, 5-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rome

Peyton Stearns

Ranked no. 42 (career-high), Peyton got to the 3^rd round after beating Nuria Brancaccio 6-3 6-2 and Anna Kalinskaya 6-2 6-3.

In the 2^nd round, Stearns had a good straight sets win against Kalinskaya (6-2 6-3). During the match Stearns scored 61 points vs Kalinskaya’s 43. Peyton was pretty aggressive to blast 26 winners.

About the serving games, Stearns scored 3 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Peyton Stearns lost the serve once and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Stearns put 61% of her first serves in, winning 76% (26/34) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (11/22) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Kalinskaya 4 times after converting 67% of her break points (4/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Peyton hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 59% of the points she played.

Stearns has an aggregate 13-11 win-loss record in 2025, 5-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rome

The American has never competed in this tournament before.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Keys	Stearns
Match played	1	2
Tot Set	2	4
Tot Games	20	34
Pts	95-77	124-86
Total Points	172	210
Winners	42	56
%Winners	44%	45%

Keys played 1 match while Stearns competed in 2 matches. Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Keys has played 2 set(s) less than Stearns (2 vs 4). Therefore, Keys played 14 games less than Stearns. Keys scored 42 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, Peyton recorded 56 winners (45%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Keys	Stearns
Aces	3	4
Avg per match	3	2
1st in	60/87	69/113
%1st in	69%	61%
1st pts	42/60	56/69
%1st pts	70%	81%
2nd pts	11/27	20/44
%2nd pts	41%	45%

Keys bagged 3 aces . Stearns fired 4 aces (2 per match). Keys won 70% points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 41% of the points. On the other side, Stearns won 81% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 45% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Keys	Stearns
Won	4	7
Converted	4/14	7/12
% Converted	29%	58%
Conceded	9	7
Saved	7	6
% Saved	78%	86%
Times Broken	2	1

The American broke her opponent 4 times with a 29% conversion rate. Keys lost her serve twice and she saved 78% of the break points that she conceded. Peyton broke her opponents 7 times with a 58% conversion rate. Peyton conceded her serve once and she saved 86% of the break points that she conceded.

Keys
	R2 Gracheva	Total
Score	7-64 6-1
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	20	20
pts	95-77	95-77
Total points	172	172
Winners	42	42
%Winners	44%	44%
SERVE
Aces	3	3
Double Faults	1	1
1st in	60/87	60/87
% 1st in	69%	69%
1st pts	42/60	42/60
% 1st pts	70%	70%
2nd pts	11/27	11/27
% 2nd pts	41%	41%
Breaks
Won	4	4
Converted	4/14	4/14
Converted %	29%	29%
Conceded	9	9
Saved	7/9	7
Saved %	78%	78%
Times Broken	2	2

Stearns
	R1 Brancaccio	R2 Kalinskaya	Total
Score	6-3 6-2	6-2 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	17	17	34
pts	63-43	61-43	124-86
Total points	106	104	210
Winners	30	26	56
%Winners	48%	43%	45%
SERVE
Aces	1	3	4
Double Faults	2	4	6
1st in	35/57	34/56	69/113
% 1st in	61%	61%	61%
1st pts	30/35	26/34	56/69
% 1st pts	86%	76%	81%
2nd pts	9/22	11/22	20/44
% 2nd pts	41%	50%	45%
Breaks
Won	3	4	7
Converted	3/6	4/6	7/12
Converted %	50%	67%	58%
Conceded	4	3	7
Saved	4/4	2/3	6
Saved %	100%	67%	167%
Times Broken	0	1	1

Tennis Scores in Rome

• Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova (7-6⁵ 7-5) – See score progression
• Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Emiliana ArangoArango (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Magdalena FrechFrech – Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
• Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Jil TeichmannTeichmann (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Qinwen ZhengZheng – Olga DanilovicDanilovic (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
• Clara TausonTauson – Katie VolynetsVolynets (7-5 4-1 ret.) – See score progression
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Magda LinetteLinette – Maria SakkariSakkari (1-6 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
• Sofia KeninKenin – Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova (6-3 6-0) – See score progression
• Linda NoskovaNoskova – Sonay KartalKartal (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Naomi OsakaOsaka – Viktorija GolubicGolubic (2-6 7-5 6-1) – See score progression
• Laura SiegemundSiegemund – Lucia BronzettiBronzetti (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Marie BouzkovaBouzkova – Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia (6-0 6-3) – See score progression
• Madison KeysKeys – Varvara GrachevaGracheva (7-6⁴ 6-1) – See score progression
• Jaqueline CristianCristian – Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva (7-6² 7-5) – See score progression
• Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Jessica Bouzas ManeiroBouzas Maneiro (6-4 7-6²) – See score progression
• Diana ShnaiderShnaider – Caroline DolehideDolehide (6-0 6-0) – See score progression
• Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Lulu SunSun (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
• Elise MertensMertens – Suzan LamensLamens (3-6 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
• Ons JabeurJabeur – Petra KvitovaKvitova (w/o) – See score progression
• Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Elena Gabriela RuseGabriela Ruse (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Elisabetta CocciarettoCocciaretto (6-1 6-0) – See score progression
• Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Rebecca SramkovaSramkova (1-6 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
• Peyton StearnsStearns – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
• Jessica PegulaPegula – Ashlyn KruegerKrueger (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Hailey BaptisteBaptiste – Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova (6-3 2-6 6-4) – See score progression
• Dan AddedAdded – Dominik RecekRecek (6-3 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Colin SinclairSinclair – Lucas GerchGerch (6-2 5-7 6-3) – See score progression
• Jan SatralSatral – Tadeas ParoulekParoulek (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Evan FurnessFurness – Petr NouzaNouza (4-6 7-6⁵ 6-4) – See score progression
• Julian LenzLenz – Ondrej StylerStyler (6-2 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Maxime ChazalChazal – Jiri JenicekJenicek (6-0 6-0) – See score progression
• Ondrej KrstevKrstev – Jacob GrillsGrills (2-6 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
• Vaclav SafranekSafranek – Patrik RiklRikl (w/o) – See score progression
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Sofia KeninKenin – Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova (6-3 6-0) – See score progression
• Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez – Antonia RuzicRuzic (6-4 6-0) – See score progression
• Marta KostyukKostyuk – Daria KasatkinaKasatkina (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Magdalena FrechFrech – Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
• Qinwen ZhengZheng – Olga DanilovicDanilovic (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
• Magda LinetteLinette – Maria SakkariSakkari (1-6 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
• Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Jil TeichmannTeichmann (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova (7-6(5) 7-5) – See score progression
• Emma NavarroNavarro – Kamilla RakhimovaRakhimova (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
• Clara TausonTauson – Katie VolynetsVolynets (7-5 4-1 ret.) – See score progression
• Linda NoskovaNoskova – Sonay KartalKartal (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Emiliana ArangoArango (6-2 6-4) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Marta KostyukKostyuk – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (2-4) – H2H and prediction
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Eva LysLys (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Bianca Vanessa AndreescuVanessa Andreescu – Donna VekicVekic (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Cori GauffGauff – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Emma NavarroNavarro – Kamilla RakhimovaRakhimova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Sofia KeninKenin (3-1) – H2H and prediction
• Magdalena FrechFrech – Qinwen ZhengZheng (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Ons JabeurJabeur (2-2) – H2H and prediction
• Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Laura SiegemundSiegemund (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Elise MertensMertens – Jessica PegulaPegula (3-1) – H2H and prediction
• Madison KeysKeys – Peyton StearnsStearns (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Marie BouzkovaBouzkova – Naomi OsakaOsaka (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Hailey BaptisteBaptiste (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (1-7) – H2H and prediction