Jessica Pegula and Elise Mertens will square off in the 3^rd round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the 5^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 8:30 pm on CAMPO CENTRALE. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jessica Pegula who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jessica Pegula is the pick to win this match.
Jessica Pegula -> 1.33
Elise Mertens -> 3.32

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Prediction and head to head Jessica Pegula vs. Elise Mertens

This will be the 5^th time that Jessica Pegula and Elise Mertens play each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Mertens (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.

The last time that they locked horns, Pegula won 6-4 6-2 in the 2^nd round in at the Australian Open back in January 2025.

Highlights Jessica Pegula vs Elise Mertens – Australian Open 15-January-2025

Jessica Pegula

Ranked no. 4, Pegula got to the 3^rd round after defeating Ashlyn Krueger 6-4 6-2.

In the 2^nd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Krueger (6-4 6-2). During the match, Pegula scored 78 points vs Krueger’s 60. Pegula was quite aggressive to blast 23 winners.

Regarding the service games, Pegula was unable to score even 1 ace in the encounter and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Jessica Pegula was exceptionally effective on serve to win 77% (23/30) of her 1st serve and 53% (17/32) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Pegula broke Krueger 4 times after converting 31% of her break points (4/13).

Pegula has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 67% of her matches (332-165). 8-2 on clay in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this competition, Pegula has a compiled 71-44 win-loss record in the last years on clay.

Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Austin where she overcame Mccartney Kessler in the final 7-5 6-2 and in Charleston where she defeated Sofia Kenin in the final 6-3 7-5.

Pegula has an overall 28-8 win-loss record in 2025, 8-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rome

Elise Mertens

Ranked no. 24, the Belgian reached the 3^rd round after beating Suzan Lamens 3-6 6-2 6-3.

In the 2^nd round against Lamens, Mertens recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-2 6-3). During the match Mertens scored 96 points vs Lamens’s 80. Mertens was exceptionally aggressive to blast 34 winners.

Talking about serving, Mertens recorded 6 aces and she committed only 7 double faults. Elise Mertens lost the serve 4 times and she saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Mertens put 55% of her first serves in, winning 74% (34/46) of the points behind her 1st serve and 43% (16/37) on the 2nd serve. Mertens broke Lamens 6 times after converting 46% of her break points (6/13).

Her best result of the year was winning the title in Singapore where she beat Ann Li in the final 6-1 6-4.

Mertens has an aggregate 20-9 win-loss record in 2025, 5-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Rome

Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2020. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Pegula	Mertens
Match played	1	1
Tot Set	2	3
Tot Games	18	26
Pts	78-60	96-80
Total Points	138	176
Winners	23	34
%Winners	29%	35%

Both Pegula and Mertens played 1 match. At the moment, Elise Mertens lost 1 set while Jessica Pegula hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Pegula has played 1 set(s) less than Mertens (2 vs 3). Therefore, Pegula played 8 games less than Mertens. Jessica scored 23 winners (29% of the total points). On the other side, Elise struck 34 winners (35%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Pegula	Mertens
Aces	0	6
Avg per match	0	6
1st in	30/62	46/83
%1st in	48%	55%
1st pts	23/30	34/46
%1st pts	77%	74%
2nd pts	17/32	16/37
%2nd pts	53%	43%

Pegula didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Mertens blasted 6 aces . Pegula won 77% points on her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Mertens won 74% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 43% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Pegula	Mertens
Won	4	6
Converted	4/13	6/13
% Converted	31%	46%
Conceded	5	12
Saved	4	8
% Saved	80%	67%
Times Broken	1	4

Jessica broke her opponent 4 times with a 31% conversion rate. The American lost her serve once and she saved 80% of the break points that she conceded. The Belgian broke her opponent 6 times with a 46% conversion rate. Elise conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded.

Pegula
	R2 Krueger	Total
Score	6-4 6-2
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	18	18
pts	78-60	78-60
Total points	138	138
Winners	23	23
%Winners	29%	29%
SERVE
Aces	0	0
Double Faults	2	2
1st in	30/62	30/62
% 1st in	48%	48%
1st pts	23/30	23/30
% 1st pts	77%	77%
2nd pts	17/32	17/32
% 2nd pts	53%	53%
Breaks
Won	4	4
Converted	4/13	4/13
Converted %	31%	31%
Conceded	5	5
Saved	4/5	4
Saved %	80%	80%
Times Broken	1	1

Mertens
	R2 Lamens	Total
Score	3-6 6-2 6-3
Tot Set	3	3
Tot Games	26	26
pts	96-80	96-80
Total points	176	176
Winners	34	34
%Winners	35%	35%
SERVE
Aces	6	6
Double Faults	7	7
1st in	46/83	46/83
% 1st in	55%	55%
1st pts	34/46	34/46
% 1st pts	74%	74%
2nd pts	16/37	16/37
% 2nd pts	43%	43%
Breaks
Won	6	6
Converted	6/13	6/13
Converted %	46%	46%
Conceded	12	12
Saved	8/12	8
Saved %	67%	67%
Times Broken	4	4

Tennis Scores in Rome

• Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova (7-6⁵ 7-5) – See score progression
• Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Emiliana ArangoArango (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Magdalena FrechFrech – Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
• Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Jil TeichmannTeichmann (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Qinwen ZhengZheng – Olga DanilovicDanilovic (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
• Clara TausonTauson – Katie VolynetsVolynets (7-5 4-1 ret.) – See score progression
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Magda LinetteLinette – Maria SakkariSakkari (1-6 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
• Sofia KeninKenin – Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova (6-3 6-0) – See score progression
• Linda NoskovaNoskova – Sonay KartalKartal (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Jessica PegulaPegula – Ashlyn KruegerKrueger (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Hailey BaptisteBaptiste – Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova (6-3 2-6 6-4) – See score progression
• Naomi OsakaOsaka – Viktorija GolubicGolubic (2-6 7-5 6-1) – See score progression
• Laura SiegemundSiegemund – Lucia BronzettiBronzetti (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Marie BouzkovaBouzkova – Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia (6-0 6-3) – See score progression
• Madison KeysKeys – Varvara GrachevaGracheva (7-6⁴ 6-1) – See score progression
• Jaqueline CristianCristian – Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva (7-6² 7-5) – See score progression
• Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Jessica Bouzas ManeiroBouzas Maneiro (6-4 7-6²) – See score progression
• Diana ShnaiderShnaider – Caroline DolehideDolehide (6-0 6-0) – See score progression
• Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Lulu SunSun (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
• Elise MertensMertens – Suzan LamensLamens (3-6 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
• Ons JabeurJabeur – Petra KvitovaKvitova (w/o) – See score progression
• Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Elena Gabriela RuseGabriela Ruse (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Elisabetta CocciarettoCocciaretto (6-1 6-0) – See score progression
• Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Rebecca SramkovaSramkova (1-6 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
• Peyton StearnsStearns – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
• Dan AddedAdded – Dominik RecekRecek (6-3 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Colin SinclairSinclair – Lucas GerchGerch (6-2 5-7 6-3) – See score progression
• Jan SatralSatral – Tadeas ParoulekParoulek (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Evan FurnessFurness – Petr NouzaNouza (4-6 7-6⁵ 6-4) – See score progression
• Julian LenzLenz – Ondrej StylerStyler (6-2 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Maxime ChazalChazal – Jiri JenicekJenicek (6-0 6-0) – See score progression
• Ondrej KrstevKrstev – Jacob GrillsGrills (2-6 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
• Vaclav SafranekSafranek – Patrik RiklRikl (w/o) – See score progression
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Sofia KeninKenin – Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova (6-3 6-0) – See score progression
• Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez – Antonia RuzicRuzic (6-4 6-0) – See score progression
• Marta KostyukKostyuk – Daria KasatkinaKasatkina (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Magdalena FrechFrech – Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
• Qinwen ZhengZheng – Olga DanilovicDanilovic (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
• Magda LinetteLinette – Maria SakkariSakkari (1-6 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
• Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Jil TeichmannTeichmann (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova (7-6(5) 7-5) – See score progression
• Emma NavarroNavarro – Kamilla RakhimovaRakhimova (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
• Clara TausonTauson – Katie VolynetsVolynets (7-5 4-1 ret.) – See score progression
• Linda NoskovaNoskova – Sonay KartalKartal (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Emiliana ArangoArango (6-2 6-4) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Marta KostyukKostyuk – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (2-4) – H2H and prediction
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Eva LysLys (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Bianca Vanessa AndreescuVanessa Andreescu – Donna VekicVekic (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Cori GauffGauff – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Emma NavarroNavarro – Kamilla RakhimovaRakhimova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Sofia KeninKenin (3-1) – H2H and prediction
• Magdalena FrechFrech – Qinwen ZhengZheng (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Ons JabeurJabeur (2-2) – H2H and prediction
• Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko – Laura SiegemundSiegemund (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Elise MertensMertens – Jessica PegulaPegula (3-1) – H2H and prediction
• Madison KeysKeys – Peyton StearnsStearns (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Marie BouzkovaBouzkova – Naomi OsakaOsaka (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Hailey BaptisteBaptiste (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (1-7) – H2H and prediction