Alex Michelsen and Andrea Pellegrino will face off in the final of the Estoril Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 3:00 pm on ESTADIO MILLENNIUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex Michelsen who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Alex Michelsen is the pick to win this match.
Alex Michelsen -> 1.34
Andrea Pellegrino -> 3.04

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Prediction and head to head Alex Michelsen vs. Andrea Pellegrino

There is no head to head record between Alex Michelsen and Andrea Pellegrino since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.

Alex Michelsen

Ranked no. 38, Michelsen got to the final after defeating Giovanni Fonio 6-4 7-6(3), Luca Nardi 6-3 6-4 and Miomir Kecmanovic 6-4 6-2.

In the semifinal, The American had a good straight sets win against Kecmanovic (6-4 6-2). During the match, Michelsen scored 66 points vs Kecmanovic’s 55. The American was exceptionally aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Talking about the service games, Michelsen managed to score 6 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Alex Michelsen was extremely effective on serve to win 74% (25/34) of his 1st serve and 63% (15/24) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Alex broke Kecmanovic 3 times after converting 38% of his break points (3/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Alex hasn’t conceded yet a set in this tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

Michelsen has a solid match record in the last 4 years having won 64% of his matches (145-81). 5-2 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Michelsen has an overall13-15 record in the last 4 years on clay.

Alex’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in Delray Beach and the Estoril Challenger.

The American has an overall 16-10 win-loss record in 2025, 5-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Estoril Challenger

The American has never competed in this tournament before.

Andrea Pellegrino

Ranked no. 237, Andrea reached the final after defeating Joao Graca 6-3 6-2, Bernabe Zapata Miralles 7-5 6-0, Dusan Lajovic 7-5 6-7(2) 6-3, Felix Auger-Aliassime 7-5 6-4, Nicolas Jarry 7-6(0) 5-7 6-1 and Aleksandar Vukic 6-4 6-4.

In the semifinal, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Vukic (6-4 6-4). During the match Pellegrino scored 65 points vs Vukic’s 53. Pellegrino was quite aggressive to blast 36 winners.

Talking about serving, Pellegrino made 2 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Andrea Pellegrino lost the serve once and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Pellegrino put 82% of his first serves in, winning 68% (36/53) of the points behind his 1st serve and 75% (9/12) on the 2nd serve. The Italian was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Vukic 3 times.

Overall Performance in this tournament

Pellegrino started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

Pellegrino’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in the Naples Challenger and the Estoril Challenger.

Andrea has an aggregate 18-8 win-loss record in 2025, 18-7 on clay (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Michelsen	Pellegrino
Match played	3	6
Tot Set	6	14
Tot Games	60	143
Pts	215-178	477-393
Total Points	393	870
Winners	91	207
%Winners	42%	43%

Michelsen played 3 matches while Pellegrino competed in 6 matches. Pellegrino started his run from the qualifications while Michelsen had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Andrea Pellegrino surrendered 2 sets while Alex Michelsen hasn’t dropped a set so far. Michelsen has played 8 set(s) less than Pellegrino (6 vs 14). Therefore, Michelsen played 83 games less than Pellegrino. The American scored 91 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Andrea made 207 winners (43%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Michelsen	Pellegrino
Aces	14	16
Avg per match	4.7	2.7
1st in	126/195	307/450
%1st in	65%	68%
1st pts	91/126	207/307
%1st pts	72%	67%
2nd pts	45/69	85/143
%2nd pts	65%	59%

Michelsen scored 14 aces (4.7 per match). Pellegrino recorded 16 aces (2.7 per match). Michelsen won 72% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 65% of the points. On the other side, Pellegrino won 67% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 59% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Michelsen	Pellegrino
Won	8	28
Converted	8/21	28/49
% Converted	38%	57%
Conceded	11	34
Saved	9	20
% Saved	82%	59%
Times Broken	2	14

Michelsen broke his opponents 8 times with a 38% conversion rate. Michelsen lost his serve twice and he saved 82% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponents 28 times with a 57% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve 14 times and he saved 59% of the break points that he conceded.

Michelsen
	R2 Fonio	1/4 Nardi	1/2 Kecmanovic	Total
Score	6-4 7-63	6-3 6-4	6-4 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	23	19	18	60
pts	82-70	67-53	66-55	215-178
Total points	152	120	121	393
Winners	37	29	25	91
%Winners	45%	43%	38%	42%
SERVE
Aces	3	5	6	14
Double Faults	0	2	4	6
1st in	50/75	42/62	34/58	126/195
% 1st in	67%	68%	59%	65%
1st pts	37/50	29/42	25/34	91/126
% 1st pts	74%	69%	74%	72%
2nd pts	17/25	13/20	15/24	45/69
% 2nd pts	68%	65%	63%	65%
Breaks
Won	2	3	3	8
Converted	2/7	3/6	3/8	8/21
Converted %	29%	50%	38%	38%
Conceded	4	3	4	11
Saved	3/4	2/3	4/4	9
Saved %	75%	67%	100%	81%
Times Broken	1	1	0	2

Pellegrino
	Q1 Graca	Q3 Zapata Miralles	R1 Lajovic	R2 Auger-Aliassime	1/4 Jarry	1/2 Vukic	Total
Score	6-3 6-2	7-5 6-0	7-5 6-72 6-3	7-5 6-4	7-60 5-7 6-1	6-4 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	3	2	3	2	14
Tot Games	17	18	34	22	32	20	143
pts	60-36	66-46	107-98	76-68	103-92	65-53	477-393
Total points	96	112	205	144	195	118	870
Winners	25	23	41	32	50	36	207
%Winners	42%	35%	38%	42%	49%	55%	43%
SERVE
Aces	6	1	2	2	3	2	16
Double Faults	2	1	2	2	7	1	15
1st in	31/47	35/49	67/103	47/79	74/107	53/65	307/450
% 1st in	66%	71%	65%	59%	69%	82%	68%
1st pts	25/31	23/35	41/67	32/47	50/74	36/53	207/307
% 1st pts	81%	66%	61%	68%	68%	68%	67%
2nd pts	10/16	7/14	23/36	18/32	18/33	9/12	85/143
% 2nd pts	63%	50%	64%	56%	55%	75%	59%
Breaks
Won	4	7	6	4	4	3	28
Converted	4/7	7/13	6/12	4/7	4/7	3/3	28/49
Converted %	57%	54%	50%	57%	57%	100%	57%
Conceded	1	5	10	6	7	5	34
Saved	0/1	2/5	6/10	4/6	4/7	4/5	20
Saved %	0%	40%	60%	67%	57%	80%	101%
Times Broken	1	3	4	2	3	1	14

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Andrea PellegrinoPellegrino – (0-0) – H2H and prediction