Aryna Sabalenka and Cori Gauff will square off in the final of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 10^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 6:30 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.69
Cori Gauff -> 2.22

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Cori Gauff

This will be the 10^th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Cori Gauff fight against each other. The head to head is 5-4 for Gauff (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.

The last time that they squared off, Gauff won 7-6(4) 6-3 in the semifinal in Riyadh back in 2024.

Highlights Cori Gauff vs Aryna Sabalenka – Riyadh 08-November-2024

Aryna Sabalenka

Currently world no. 1 the Belarussian got to the final after beating Anna Blinkova 6-3 6-4, Elise Mertens 3-6 6-2 6-1, Peyton Stearns 6-2 6-4, Marta Kostyuk 7-6(4) 7-6(7) and Elina Svitolina 6-3 7-5.

In the semifinal, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Svitolina (6-3 7-5). During the match, Sabalenka scored 74 points vs Svitolina’s 61. Aryna was pretty aggressive to blast 30 winners.

Talking about the service games, Sabalenka bagged 4 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve twice and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 57% of her first serves in, winning 75% (30/40) of the points behind her 1st serve and 47% (14/30) on the 2nd serve. Sabalenka broke Svitolina 4 times after converting 67% of her break points (4/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Aryna has dropped 1 set in this competition to conquer 54% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a fantastic record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (404-173). 7-1 on clay in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has an aggregate 84-40 match record in the last years on clay.

Her best result of the current year was conquering the title in Brisbane where she defeated Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2 and in Miami where she defeated Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 6-2.

The Belarussian has a compiled 30-5 win-loss record in 2025, 7-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Cori Gauff

Ranked no. 4, Cori got to the final after defeating Dayana Yastremska 0-6 6-2 7-5, Ann Li 6-2 6-3, Belinda Bencic 6-4 6-2, Mirra Andreeva 7-5 6-1 and Iga Swiatek 6-1 6-1.

In the semifinal, Cori had a good straight sets win against Swiatek (6-1 6-1). During the match Gauff scored 57 points vs Swiatek’s 26. The American was extremely aggressive to blast 19 winners.

About the serving games, Gauff made 7 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Cori Gauff was extremely efficient on serve to win 90% (19/21) of her 1st serve and 69% (9/13) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Cori broke Swiatek 5 times after converting 71% of her break points (5/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Gauff has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 58% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Australia where she beat Iga Swiatek in the final 6-4 6-4.

Cori has an aggregate 19-6 win-loss record in 2025, 6-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Previously, her best result was reaching the 4^th round in 2024. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sabalenka	Gauff
Match played	5	5
Tot Set	11	11
Tot Games	108	94
Pts	414-354	357-254
Total Points	768	611
Winners	164	111
%Winners	40%	31%

Both Sabalenka and Gauff played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka dropped 1 set, while Cori Gauff dropped 1 set. Talking about their workload, Sabalenka and Gauff have played the same amount of sets 11. However, Sabalenka played 14 games more than Gauff. The Belarussian scored 164 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Gauff scored 111 winners (31%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sabalenka	Gauff
Aces	16	14
Avg per match	3.2	2.8
1st in	233/397	142/261
%1st in	59%	54%
1st pts	164/233	111/142
%1st pts	70%	78%
2nd pts	75/164	61/119
%2nd pts	46%	51%

Sabalenka struck 16 aces (3.2 per match). Gauff bagged 14 aces (2.8 per match). Sabalenka won 70% points on her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 46% of the points. On the other side, Gauff won 78% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 51% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sabalenka	Gauff
Won	21	26
Converted	21/40	26/60
% Converted	53%	43%
Conceded	50	22
Saved	39	10
% Saved	78%	45%
Times Broken	11	12

Sabalenka broke her opponents 21 times with a 53% conversion rate. Aryna conceded her serve 11 times and she saved 78% of the break points that she conceded. The American broke her opponents 26 times with a 43% conversion rate. Gauff conceded her serve 12 times and she saved 45% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
	R2 Blinkova	R3 Mertens	R4 Stearns	1/4 Kostyuk	1/2 Svitolina	Total
Score	6-3 6-4	3-6 6-2 6-1	6-2 6-4	7-64 7-67	6-3 7-5
Tot Set	2	3	2	2	2	11
Tot Games	19	24	18	26	21	108
pts	78-69	86-67	66-51	110-106	74-61	414-354
Total points	147	153	117	216	135	768
Winners	27	29	28	50	30	164
%Winners	35%	34%	42%	45%	41%	40%
SERVE
Aces	1	6	3	2	4	16
Double Faults	5	4	0	5	4	18
1st in	36/72	44/77	36/64	77/114	40/70	233/397
% 1st in	50%	57%	56%	68%	57%	59%
1st pts	27/36	29/44	28/36	50/77	30/40	164/233
% 1st pts	75%	66%	78%	65%	75%	70%
2nd pts	18/36	15/33	12/28	16/37	14/30	75/164
% 2nd pts	50%	45%	43%	43%	47%	46%
Breaks
Won	3	7	4	3	4	21
Converted	3/7	7/11	4/7	3/9	4/6	21/40
Converted %	43%	64%	57%	33%	67%	53%
Conceded	7	8	13	15	7	50
Saved	6/7	4/8	12/13	12/15	5/7	39
Saved %	86%	50%	92%	80%	71%	76%
Times Broken	1	4	1	3	2	11

Gauff
	R2 Yastremska	R3 Li	R4 Bencic	1/4 Andreeva	1/2 Swiatek	Total
Score	0-6 6-2 7-5	6-2 6-3	6-4 6-2	7-5 6-1	6-1 6-1
Tot Set	3	2	2	2	2	11
Tot Games	26	17	18	19	14	94
pts	94-86	61-42	67-46	78-54	57-26	357-254
Total points	180	103	113	132	83	611
Winners	26	22	22	22	19	111
%Winners	28%	36%	33%	28%	33%	31%
SERVE
Aces	3	1	2	1	7	14
Double Faults	8	4	1	2	1	16
1st in	39/81	30/50	26/46	26/50	21/34	142/261
% 1st in	48%	60%	57%	52%	62%	54%
1st pts	26/39	22/30	22/26	22/26	19/21	111/142
% 1st pts	67%	73%	85%	85%	90%	78%
2nd pts	16/42	10/20	13/20	13/24	9/13	61/119
% 2nd pts	38%	50%	65%	54%	69%	51%
Breaks
Won	7	5	4	5	5	26
Converted	7/14	5/9	4/14	5/16	5/7	26/60
Converted %	50%	56%	29%	31%	71%	43%
Conceded	14	3	1	4	0	22
Saved	7/14	1/3	0/1	2/4	0/0	10
Saved %	50%	33%	0%	50%	–	27%
Times Broken	7	2	1	2	0	12

Tennis Scores in Madrid

• Yan BaiBai – Yecong HeHe (6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Cori GauffGauff (4-5) – H2H and prediction