Reilly Opelka and Ignacio Buse will square off in the quarter of the Aix En Provence Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 1:00 pm on COURT CREDIT AGRICOLE. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Reilly Opelka who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Reilly Opelka is the pick to win this match.
Reilly Opelka -> 1.51
Ignacio Buse -> 2.42
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Prediction and head to head Reilly Opelka vs. Ignacio Buse
There is no head to head record between Reilly Opelka and Ignacio Buse since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.
Reilly Opelka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15-12 | 9-6 | 4-5 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 8-10 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 21-15 | 10-7 | 6-5 | 4-0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 21-23 | 14-11 | 6-4 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 103, Reilly got to the quarter after beating Kyrian Jacquet 4-6 6-3 6-2 and Corentin Moutet 7-6(3) 7-6(3).
In the 2nd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Moutet (7-63 7-63). During the match, Opelka scored 83 points vs Moutet’s 77. Opelka was extremely aggressive to blast 41 winners.
Regarding the service games, Opelka scored 10 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Reilly Opelka was extremely efficient on serve to win 85% (41/48) of his 1st serve and 56% (19/34) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Reilly broke Moutet once after converting 25% of his break points (1/4).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
Opelka has good match record in the last 10 years having won 57% of his matches (200-153). 3-2 on clay in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Opelka has an overall 47-35 record in the last years on clay.
Opelka’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in Brisbane.
The American has a compiled 14-9 win-loss record in 2025, 3-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Aix En Provence Challenger
Ignacio Buse
14 - 11win/loss
177
171
LLLWWWWWLL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14-14 | 0-3 | 13-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 47-28 | 3-3 | 44-24 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 35-19 | 7-3 | 28-16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 13-8 | 4-2 | 9-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 210, Ignacio reached the quarter after beating Laurent Lokoli 4-6 6-4 6-3, Calvin Hemery 6-3 7-5, Moise Kouame 6-2 6-4 and Luciano Darderi 6-0 6-4.
In the 2nd round, Buse had a good straight sets win against Darderi (6-0 6-4). During the match Buse scored 66 points vs Darderi’s 42. Ignacio was extremely aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Talking about serving, Buse blasted 4 aces and he was pretty consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Ignacio Buse was quite effective on serve to win 77% (23/30) of his 1st serve and 79% (11/14) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Peruvian broke Darderi 4 times after converting 31% of his break points (4/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Ignacio started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
Ignacio’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in the Santiago Challenger and the Menorca Challenger.
The Peruvian has an aggregate 13-11 win-loss record in 2025, 12-6 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Opelka | Buse |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 53 | 84 |
| Pts | 173-146 | 300-244 |
| Total Points | 319 | 544 |
| Winners | 72 | 115 |
| %Winners | 42% | 38% |
Opelka played 2 matches while Buse competed in 4 matches. Buse started his run from the qualifications while Opelka had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Reilly Opelka lost 1 set, while Ignacio Buse conceded 1 set. Opelka has played 4 set(s) less than Buse (5 vs 9). Therefore, Opelka played 31 games less than Buse. Reilly scored 72 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Buse made 115 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Opelka | Buse |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 22 | 23 |
| Avg per match | 11 | 5.8 |
| 1st in | 81/149 | 168/263 |
| %1st in | 54% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 72/81 | 115/168 |
| %1st pts | 89% | 68% |
| 2nd pts | 42/68 | 52/95 |
| %2nd pts | 62% | 55% |
Opelka made 22 aces (11 per match). Buse managed to score 23 aces (5.8 per match). Opelka won 89% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 62% of the points. On the other side, Buse won 68% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Opelka | Buse |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 19 |
| Converted | 4/17 | 19/43 |
| % Converted | 24% | 44% |
| Conceded | 4 | 22 |
| Saved | 2 | 14 |
| % Saved | 50% | 64% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 8 |
The American broke his opponents 4 times with a 24% conversion rate. Opelka conceded his serve twice and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. The Peruvian broke his opponents 19 times with a 44% conversion rate. The Peruvian conceded his serve 8 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded.
| Opelka | ||||
| R1 Jacquet |
R2 Moutet |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-3 6-2 | 7-63 7-63 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 27 | 26 | 53 | |
| pts | 90-69 | 83-77 | 173-146 | |
| Total points | 159 | 160 | 319 | |
| Winners | 31 | 41 | 72 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 49% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 12 | 10 | 22 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 33/67 | 48/82 | 81/149 | |
| % 1st in | 49% | 59% | 54% | |
| 1st pts | 31/33 | 41/48 | 72/81 | |
| % 1st pts | 94% | 85% | 89% | |
| 2nd pts | 23/34 | 19/34 | 42/68 | |
| % 2nd pts | 68% | 56% | 62% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| Converted | 3/13 | 1/4 | 4/17 | |
| Converted % | 23% | 25% | 24% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 1/2 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Buse | ||||||
| Q1 Lokoli |
Q3 Hemery |
R1 Kouame |
R2 Darderi |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-4 6-3 | 6-3 7-5 | 6-2 6-4 | 6-0 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 29 | 21 | 18 | 16 | 84 | |
| pts | 99-97 | 68-54 | 67-51 | 66-42 | 300-244 | |
| Total points | 196 | 122 | 118 | 108 | 544 | |
| Winners | 38 | 32 | 22 | 23 | 115 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 47% | 33% | 35% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 10 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 23 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 61/103 | 46/61 | 31/55 | 30/44 | 168/263 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 75% | 56% | 68% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 38/61 | 32/46 | 22/31 | 23/30 | 115/168 | |
| % 1st pts | 62% | 70% | 71% | 77% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/42 | 8/15 | 15/24 | 11/14 | 52/95 | |
| % 2nd pts | 43% | 53% | 63% | 79% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 19 | |
| Converted | 6/14 | 5/8 | 4/8 | 4/13 | 19/43 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 63% | 50% | 31% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 22 | |
| Saved | 6/11 | 4/6 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 55% | 67% | 67% | 100% | 145% | |
| Times Broken | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLLWWLWLL
LLLWWWWWLL 
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