Alex Michelsen and Luca Nardi will play each other in the quarter of the Estoril Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 7:30 pm on ESTADIO MILLENNIUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex Michelsen who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Alex Michelsen is the pick to win this match.
Alex Michelsen -> 1.65
Luca Nardi -> 2.13

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Prediction and head to head Alex Michelsen vs. Luca Nardi

There is no head to head record between Alex Michelsen and Luca Nardi since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.

Alex Michelsen

Ranked no. 38, the American reached the quarter after beating Giovanni Fonio 6-4 7-6(3).

In the 2^nd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Fonio (6-4 7-6³). During the match, Michelsen scored 82 points vs Fonio’s 70. Alex was pretty aggressive to blast 37 winners.

Talking about the service games, Michelsen struck 3 aces and he was exceptionally consistent in conceding no double faults. Overall, Alex Michelsen was quite efficient on serve to win 74% (37/50) of his 1st serve and 68% (17/25) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Michelsen broke Fonio twice after converting 29% of his break points (2/7).

Michelsen has a solid win-loss record in the last 4 years having won 64% of his matches (143-81). 3-2 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Michelsen has an aggregate11-15 record in the last 4 years on clay.

The American’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Delray Beach.

Alex has a composed 14-10 win-loss record in 2025, 3-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Estoril Challenger

Alex has never competed in this tournament before.

Luca Nardi

Ranked no. 100, the Italian got to the quarter after defeating Aleksandar Kovacevic 6-2 6-3 and Alexey Vatutin 6-3 6-2.

In the 2^nd round, Luca had a good straight sets win against Vatutin (6-3 6-2). During the match Nardi scored 77 points vs Vatutin’s 59. Nardi was very aggressive to blast 29 winners.

About the serving games, Nardi scored 7 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Luca Nardi was pretty efficient on serve to win 76% (29/38) of his 1st serve and 53% (21/40) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Italian broke Vatutin 3 times after converting 75% of his break points (3/4).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 58% of the points he played.

Nardi’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in the Koblenz Challenger.

Nardi has an aggregate 18-14 win-loss record in 2025, 3-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Michelsen	Nardi
Match played	1	2
Tot Set	2	4
Tot Games	23	34
Pts	82-70	136-100
Total Points	152	236
Winners	37	50
%Winners	45%	37%

Michelsen played 1 match while Nardi competed in 2 matches. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Michelsen has played 2 set(s) less than Nardi (2 vs 4). Therefore, Michelsen played 11 games less than Nardi. Michelsen scored 37 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, Nardi blasted 50 winners (37%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Michelsen	Nardi
Aces	3	8
Avg per match	3	4
1st in	50/75	63/122
%1st in	67%	52%
1st pts	37/50	50/63
%1st pts	74%	79%
2nd pts	17/25	34/59
%2nd pts	68%	58%

Michelsen recorded 3 aces . Nardi struck 8 aces (4 per match). Michelsen won 74% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 68% of the points. On the other side, Nardi won 79% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Michelsen	Nardi
Won	2	7
Converted	2/7	7/11
% Converted	29%	64%
Conceded	4	10
Saved	3	10
% Saved	75%	100%
Times Broken	1	0

Alex broke his opponent twice with a 29% conversion rate. The American lost his serve once and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponents 7 times with a 64% conversion rate. The Italian was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 10 break points.

Michelsen
	R2 Fonio	Total
Score	6-4 7-63
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	23	23
pts	82-70	82-70
Total points	152	152
Winners	37	37
%Winners	45%	45%
SERVE
Aces	3	3
Double Faults	0	0
1st in	50/75	50/75
% 1st in	67%	67%
1st pts	37/50	37/50
% 1st pts	74%	74%
2nd pts	17/25	17/25
% 2nd pts	68%	68%
Breaks
Won	2	2
Converted	2/7	2/7
Converted %	29%	29%
Conceded	4	4
Saved	3/4	3
Saved %	75%	75%
Times Broken	1	1

Nardi
	R1 Kovacevic	R2 Vatutin	Total
Score	6-2 6-3	6-3 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	17	17	34
pts	59-41	77-59	136-100
Total points	100	136	236
Winners	21	29	50
%Winners	36%	38%	37%
SERVE
Aces	1	7	8
Double Faults	0	4	4
1st in	25/44	38/78	63/122
% 1st in	57%	49%	52%
1st pts	21/25	29/38	50/63
% 1st pts	84%	76%	79%
2nd pts	13/19	21/40	34/59
% 2nd pts	68%	53%	58%
Breaks
Won	4	3	7
Converted	4/7	3/4	7/11
Converted %	57%	75%	64%
Conceded	2	8	10
Saved	2/2	8/8	10
Saved %	100%	100%	200%
Times Broken	0	0	0

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