Alex Michelsen and Luca Nardi will play each other in the quarter of the Estoril Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 7:30 pm on ESTADIO MILLENNIUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex Michelsen who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Alex Michelsen is the pick to win this match.
Alex Michelsen -> 1.65
Luca Nardi -> 2.13
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Prediction and head to head Alex Michelsen vs. Luca Nardi
There is no head to head record between Alex Michelsen and Luca Nardi since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.
Alex Michelsen
14 - 10win/loss
33
32
LLWWWWLLWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17-12 | 10-7 | 6-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-34 | 26-14 | 4-9 | 8-5 | 7-6 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 61-27 | 30-13 | 4-3 | 19-7 | 8-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 23-10 | 14-8 | 0-1 | 9-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 38, the American reached the quarter after beating Giovanni Fonio 6-4 7-6(3).
In the 2nd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Fonio (6-4 7-63). During the match, Michelsen scored 82 points vs Fonio’s 70. Alex was pretty aggressive to blast 37 winners.
Talking about the service games, Michelsen struck 3 aces and he was exceptionally consistent in conceding no double faults. Overall, Alex Michelsen was quite efficient on serve to win 74% (37/50) of his 1st serve and 68% (17/25) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Michelsen broke Fonio twice after converting 29% of his break points (2/7).
Michelsen has a solid win-loss record in the last 4 years having won 64% of his matches (143-81). 3-2 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Michelsen has an aggregate11-15 record in the last 4 years on clay.
The American’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Delray Beach.
Alex has a composed 14-10 win-loss record in 2025, 3-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Estoril Challenger
Alex has never competed in this tournament before.
Luca Nardi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20-17 | 9-8 | 5-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 32-27 | 14-14 | 8-5 | 9-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-36 | 20-10 | 8-13 | 12-12 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-20 | 5-2 | 11-10 | 17-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-24 | 3-3 | 26-13 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 100, the Italian got to the quarter after defeating Aleksandar Kovacevic 6-2 6-3 and Alexey Vatutin 6-3 6-2.
In the 2nd round, Luca had a good straight sets win against Vatutin (6-3 6-2). During the match Nardi scored 77 points vs Vatutin’s 59. Nardi was very aggressive to blast 29 winners.
About the serving games, Nardi scored 7 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Luca Nardi was pretty efficient on serve to win 76% (29/38) of his 1st serve and 53% (21/40) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Italian broke Vatutin 3 times after converting 75% of his break points (3/4).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 58% of the points he played.
Nardi’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in the Koblenz Challenger.
Nardi has an aggregate 18-14 win-loss record in 2025, 3-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Michelsen | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 23 | 34 |
| Pts | 82-70 | 136-100 |
| Total Points | 152 | 236 |
| Winners | 37 | 50 |
| %Winners | 45% | 37% |
Michelsen played 1 match while Nardi competed in 2 matches. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Michelsen has played 2 set(s) less than Nardi (2 vs 4). Therefore, Michelsen played 11 games less than Nardi. Michelsen scored 37 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, Nardi blasted 50 winners (37%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Michelsen | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 3 | 8 |
| Avg per match | 3 | 4 |
| 1st in | 50/75 | 63/122 |
| %1st in | 67% | 52% |
| 1st pts | 37/50 | 50/63 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 17/25 | 34/59 |
| %2nd pts | 68% | 58% |
Michelsen recorded 3 aces . Nardi struck 8 aces (4 per match). Michelsen won 74% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 68% of the points. On the other side, Nardi won 79% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Michelsen | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 2 | 7 |
| Converted | 2/7 | 7/11 |
| % Converted | 29% | 64% |
| Conceded | 4 | 10 |
| Saved | 3 | 10 |
| % Saved | 75% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 |
Alex broke his opponent twice with a 29% conversion rate. The American lost his serve once and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponents 7 times with a 64% conversion rate. The Italian was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 10 break points.
| Michelsen | |||
| R2 Fonio |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-63 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 23 | |
| pts | 82-70 | 82-70 | |
| Total points | 152 | 152 | |
| Winners | 37 | 37 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 45% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | |
| 1st in | 50/75 | 50/75 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 37/50 | 37/50 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/25 | 17/25 | |
| % 2nd pts | 68% | 68% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 2 | 2 | |
| Converted | 2/7 | 2/7 | |
| Converted % | 29% | 29% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
| Nardi | ||||
| R1 Kovacevic |
R2 Vatutin |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-3 | 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 17 | 34 | |
| pts | 59-41 | 77-59 | 136-100 | |
| Total points | 100 | 136 | 236 | |
| Winners | 21 | 29 | 50 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 38% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 1 | 7 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 4 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 25/44 | 38/78 | 63/122 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 49% | 52% | |
| 1st pts | 21/25 | 29/38 | 50/63 | |
| % 1st pts | 84% | 76% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/19 | 21/40 | 34/59 | |
| % 2nd pts | 68% | 53% | 58% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 7 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 3/4 | 7/11 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 75% | 64% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 8 | 10 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 8/8 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 200% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Head 2 Head
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LWLWLWWLWL 
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