Lorenzo Musetti and Gabriel Diallo will square off in the quarter of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 8:00 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Lorenzo Musetti who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Lorenzo Musetti is the pick to win this match.
Lorenzo Musetti -> 1.27
Gabriel Diallo -> 3.76

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Prediction and head to head Lorenzo Musetti vs. Gabriel Diallo

This will be the 3rd time that Lorenzo Musetti and Gabriel Diallo play each other. The head to head is 1-1 for Musetti and Diallo (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.

The last time that they fought against each other, Musetti won 6-4 6-3 in the 2nd round in Hong kong back in January 2025.

Highlights Lorenzo Musetti vs Gabriel Diallo – Hong kong 02-January-2025

Lorenzo Musetti

Lorenzo Musetti

16 - 5win/loss

Hard
6-4
I Hard
0-0
Clay
10-1
Rank
8
High
6
LWLLWWWLLW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 45-22 18-11 19-4 8-6 0-1 0-0
2024 46-30 13-12 18-10 3-5 12-3 0-0
2023 32-29 10-10 16-11 0-5 6-3 0-0
2022 44-30 11-10 21-7 12-10 0-3 0-0
2021 36-31 9-8 17-12 10-10 0-1 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 11 (career-high), the Italian reached the quarter after defeating Tomas Martin Etcheverry 7-6(3) 6-2, Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-5 7-6(3) and Alex De Minaur 6-4 6-2.

In the 4th round, Musetti had a good straight sets win against De Minaur (6-4 6-2). During the match, Musetti scored 61 points vs De Minaur’s 45. Musetti was quite aggressive to blast 26 winners.

Regarding the service games, Musetti blasted 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Lorenzo Musetti was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 79% (26/33) of his 1st serve and 73% (11/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Lorenzo broke De Minaur 3 times after converting 30% of his break points (3/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Musetti hasn’t lost yet a set in this competition to win 55% of the points he played.

Musetti has a winning match record in the last 8 years having won 59% of his matches (235-166). 9-1 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Musetti has an aggregate128-67 win-loss record in the last 8 years on clay.

Musetti’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Carlo.

Lorenzo has an overall 15-5 win-loss record in 2025, 9-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Madrid
Musetti's Record

Gabriel Diallo

Gabriel Diallo

18 - 14win/loss

Hard
10-8
I Hard
1-1
Clay
7-5
Rank
41
High
33
LWLLWLWWLW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 37-29 16-15 8-7 4-4 9-3 0-0
2024 49-26 30-12 7-6 9-4 3-4 0-0
2023 39-28 8-11 2-2 24-10 5-5 0-0
2022 23-10 17-6 0-0 6-4 0-0 0-0
2021 12-4 8-3 0-0 4-1 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 78 (career-high), the Canadian reached the quarter after beating Nicolas Moreno De Alboran 6-3 6-3, Borna Coric 6-3 7-6(6), Zizou Bergs 6-1 6-2, Kamil Majchrzak 7-5 4-6 6-4, Cameron Norrie 2-6 6-4 6-4 and Grigor Dimitrov 5-7 7-6(7) 6-4.

In the 4th round against Dimitrov, Gabriel recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (5-7 7-67 6-4).During the match Diallo scored less points (1) than Dimitrov. In fact, the world no. 11 won 95 points vs Dimitrov’s. That means that Diallo was more focused during the important points. The Canadian was extremely aggressive to blast 58 winners.

About the serving games, Diallo managed to score 8 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Gabriel Diallo was pretty effective on serve to win 77% (58/75) of his 1st serve and 64% (14/22) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Diallo broke Dimitrov once after converting 25% of his break points (1/4).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Canadian started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

Diallo has an overall 18-13 win-loss record in 2025, 7-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Gabriel has never competed in this tournament before.

Madrid
Diallo's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

L.Musetti
G.Diallo
5h:04
5h:04
Time on court​
!
11h:05
11h:05
1h:23
1h:23
Last match​
!
2h:22
2h:22
3
3
Match played
!
6
6
64
64
Games Played​
150
150
6
6
Set played​​
15
15
215
215
Total points​
483
483
71.7
71.7
Avg point​
80.5
80.5
102
102
Winners
235
235
34
34
Avg Winners​
39.2
39.2
47%
47%
Ratio winners
49%
49%
-- Serve --
8
8
Aces
47
47
2.7
2.7
Avg Aces
7.8
7.8
2
2
Double Faults
12
12
0.7
0.7
Avg Double Faults
2
2
102/135
102/135
1st won total​
235/317
235/317
!
76%
76%
1st won %
!
74%
74%
31/51
31/51
2nd won total​
81/131
81/131
!
61%
61%
2nd won %
!
62%
62%
-- Break Points --
8/31
8/31
BP won
13/48
13/48
2.7/10.3
2.7/10.3
Avg BP won
2.2/8
2.2/8
!
26%
26%
Won
!
27%
27%
6
6
Conceded
22
22
2
2
Avg Conceded
3.7
3.7
2
2
Broken
7
7
!
0.7
0.7
Avg Broken
1.2
1.2
4
4
Saved
15
15
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Musetti Diallo
Match played 3 5
Tot Set 6 13
Tot Games 64 128
Pts 215-177 414-362
Total Points 392 776
Winners 102 204
%Winners 47% 49%

Musetti played 3 matches while Diallo competed in 5 matches. Diallo started his run from the qualifications while Musetti had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Gabriel Diallo conceded 3 sets while Lorenzo Musetti hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Musetti has played 7 set(s) less than Diallo (6 vs 13). Therefore, Musetti played 64 games less than Diallo. The Italian scored 102 winners (47% of the total points). On the other side, Diallo managed to score 204 winners (49%).

Serve Performance

Serve Musetti Diallo
Aces 8 39
Avg per match 2.7 7.8
1st in 135/186 272/383
%1st in 73% 71%
1st pts 102/135 204/272
%1st pts 76% 75%
2nd pts 31/51 69/111
%2nd pts 61% 62%

Musetti recorded 8 aces (2.7 per match). Diallo struck 39 aces (7.8 per match). Musetti won 76% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Diallo won 75% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 62% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Musetti Diallo
Won 8 13
Converted 8/31 13/39
% Converted 26% 33%
Conceded 6 19
Saved 4 14
% Saved 67% 74%
Times Broken 2 5

The Italian broke his opponents 8 times with a 26% conversion rate. Musetti lost his serve twice and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. The Canadian broke his opponents 13 times with a 33% conversion rate. Diallo conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 74% of the break points that he conceded.

Musetti
R2
Etcheverry		 R3
Tsitsipas		 R4
De Minaur		 Total
Score 7-63 6-2 7-5 7-63 6-4 6-2
Tot Set 2 2 2 6
Tot Games 21 25 18 64
pts 70-57 84-75 61-45 215-177
Total points 127 159 106 392
Winners 29 47 26 102
%Winners 41% 56% 43% 47%
SERVE
Aces 1 4 3 8
Double Faults 1 0 1 2
1st in 41/58 61/80 33/48 135/186
% 1st in 71% 76% 69% 73%
1st pts 29/41 47/61 26/33 102/135
% 1st pts 71% 77% 79% 76%
2nd pts 12/17 8/19 11/15 31/51
% 2nd pts 71% 42% 73% 61%
Breaks
Won 3 2 3 8
Converted 3/13 2/8 3/10 8/31
Converted % 23% 25% 30% 26%
Conceded 1 5 0 6
Saved 0/1 4/5 0/0 4
Saved % 0% 80% – 27%
Times Broken 1 1 0 2
Diallo
Q1
Moreno De Alboran		 Q3
Coric		 R1
Bergs		 R2
Majchrzak		 R3
Norrie		 R4
Dimitrov		 Total
Score 6-3 6-3 6-3 7-66 6-1 6-2 7-5 4-6 6-4 2-6 6-4 6-4 5-7 7-67 6-4
Tot Set 2 2 2 3 3 3 15
Tot Games 18 22 15 32 28 35 150
pts 60-46 – 51-24 101-91 107-105 95-96 414-362
Total points 106 0 75 192 212 191 776
Winners 26 18 49 53 58 204
%Winners 43% 0% 35% 49% 50% 61% 49%
SERVE
Aces 9 0 4 10 8 8 39
Double Faults 1 0 5 1 2 9
1st in 35/51 / 21/37 66/94 75/104 75/97 272/383
% 1st in 69% 0% 57% 70% 72% 77% 71%
1st pts 26/35 / 18/21 49/66 53/75 58/75 204/272
% 1st pts 74% 0% 86% 74% 71% 77% 75%
2nd pts 12/16 / 14/16 17/28 12/29 14/22 69/111
% 2nd pts 75% 0% 88% 61% 41% 64% 62%
Breaks
Won 3 4 3 2 1 13
Converted 3/7 / 4/4 3/10 2/14 1/4 13/39
Converted % 43% 0% 100% 30% 14% 25% 33%
Conceded 1 0 3 14 1 19
Saved 1/1 0/ 0/0 1/3 12/14 0/1 14
Saved % 100% – – 33% 86% 0% 73%
Times Broken 0 0 2 2 1 5

Tennis Scores in Madrid

Upcoming matches in the draw

Musetti
More Stats
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Diallo

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