Aryna Sabalenka and Elina Svitolina will square off in the semifinal of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 6^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 9:30 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.4
Elina Svitolina -> 2.95

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elina Svitolina

This will be the 6^th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Elina Svitolina play each other. The head to head is 4-1 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on clay.

The last time that they competed against each other, Sabalenka won 7-5 6-2 in the 3^rd round in Cincinnati back in 2024.

Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina – Cincinnati 16-August-2024

Aryna Sabalenka

Currently world no. 1 Sabalenka reached the semifinal after defeating Anna Blinkova 6-3 6-4, Elise Mertens 3-6 6-2 6-1, Peyton Stearns 6-2 6-4 and Marta Kostyuk 7-6(4) 7-6(7).

In the quarter, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Kostyuk (7-6⁴ 7-6⁷). During the match, Sabalenka scored 110 points vs Kostyuk’s 106. Sabalenka was pretty aggressive to blast 50 winners.

Regarding the service games, Sabalenka recorded 2 aces and she committed only 5 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 3 times and she saved 12 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 68% of her first serves in, winning 65% (50/77) of the points behind her 1st serve and 43% (16/37) on the 2nd serve. Aryna broke Kostyuk 3 times after converting 33% of her break points (3/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Sabalenka has surrendered 1 set in this competition to conquer 54% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a marvellous record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (403-173). 6-1 on clay in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has an overall 83-40 match record in the last years on clay.

Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Brisbane where she defeated Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2 and in Miami where she defeated Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 6-2.

Aryna has an aggregate 29-5 win-loss record in 2025, 6-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Elina Svitolina

Ranked no. 17, Elina got to the semifinal after beating Sonay Kartal 6-3 6-1, Elena Rybakina 6-3 6-4, Maria Sakkari 6-3 6-4 and Moyuka Uchijima 6-2 6-1.

In the quarter, The Ukrainian had a good straight sets win against Uchijima (6-2 6-1). During the match Svitolina scored 55 points vs Uchijima’s 30. Svitolina was extremely aggressive to blast 24 winners.

Talking about serving, Svitolina made 5 aces and she was quite solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Elina Svitolina lost the serve once and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Svitolina put 73% of her first serves in, winning 73% (24/33) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (6/12) on the 2nd serve. Svitolina broke Uchijima 5 times after converting 83% of her break points (5/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Elina hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 58% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current year was conquering the title in Rouen where she overcame Olga Danilovic in the final 6-4 7-6(8).

Elina has a composed 22-6 win-loss record in 2025, 11-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Previously, her best result was reaching the 2^nd round in 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2024. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sabalenka	Svitolina
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	9	8
Tot Games	87	69
Pts	340-293	251-180
Total Points	633	431
Winners	134	107
%Winners	39%	43%

Both Sabalenka and Svitolina played 4 matches. At the moment, Aryna Sabalenka surrendered 1 set while Elina Svitolina hasn’t dropped a set so far. Sabalenka has played 1 set more than Svitolina (9 vs 8). Therefore, Sabalenka played 18 games more than Svitolina. Sabalenka scored 134 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Elina recorded 107 winners (43%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sabalenka	Svitolina
Aces	12	9
Avg per match	3	2.3
1st in	193/327	156/226
%1st in	59%	69%
1st pts	134/193	107/156
%1st pts	69%	69%
2nd pts	61/134	41/70
%2nd pts	46%	59%

Sabalenka recorded 12 aces (3 per match). Svitolina struck 9 aces (2.3 per match). Sabalenka won 69% points behind her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 46% of the points. On the other side, Svitolina won 69% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 59% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sabalenka	Svitolina
Won	17	17
Converted	17/34	17/24
% Converted	50%	71%
Conceded	43	13
Saved	34	9
% Saved	79%	69%
Times Broken	9	4

Sabalenka broke her opponents 17 times with a 50% conversion rate. Sabalenka lost her serve 9 times and she saved 79% of the break points that she conceded. Elina broke her opponents 17 times with a 71% conversion rate. The Ukrainian conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 69% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
	R2 Blinkova	R3 Mertens	R4 Stearns	1/4 Kostyuk	Total
Score	6-3 6-4	3-6 6-2 6-1	6-2 6-4	7-64 7-67
Tot Set	2	3	2	2	9
Tot Games	19	24	18	26	87
pts	78-69	86-67	66-51	110-106	340-293
Total points	147	153	117	216	633
Winners	27	29	28	50	134
%Winners	35%	34%	42%	45%	39%
SERVE
Aces	1	6	3	2	12
Double Faults	5	4	0	5	14
1st in	36/72	44/77	36/64	77/114	193/327
% 1st in	50%	57%	56%	68%	59%
1st pts	27/36	29/44	28/36	50/77	134/193
% 1st pts	75%	66%	78%	65%	69%
2nd pts	18/36	15/33	12/28	16/37	61/134
% 2nd pts	50%	45%	43%	43%	46%
Breaks
Won	3	7	4	3	17
Converted	3/7	7/11	4/7	3/9	17/34
Converted %	43%	64%	57%	33%	50%
Conceded	7	8	13	15	43
Saved	6/7	4/8	12/13	12/15	34
Saved %	86%	50%	92%	80%	77%
Times Broken	1	4	1	3	9

Svitolina
	R2 Kartal	R3 Rybakina	R4 Sakkari	1/4 Uchijima	Total
Score	6-3 6-1	6-3 6-4	6-3 6-4	6-2 6-1
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	16	19	19	15	69
pts	53-31	71-57	72-62	55-30	251-180
Total points	84	128	134	85	431
Winners	18	34	31	24	107
%Winners	34%	48%	43%	44%	43%
SERVE
Aces	0	2	2	5	9
Double Faults	1	0	1	0	2
1st in	27/42	45/69	51/70	33/45	156/226
% 1st in	64%	65%	73%	73%	69%
1st pts	18/27	34/45	31/51	24/33	107/156
% 1st pts	67%	76%	61%	73%	69%
2nd pts	11/15	14/24	10/19	6/12	41/70
% 2nd pts	73%	58%	53%	50%	59%
Breaks
Won	5	2	5	5	17
Converted	5/6	2/4	5/8	5/6	17/24
Converted %	83%	50%	63%	83%	71%
Conceded	1	2	7	3	13
Saved	0/1	2/2	5/7	2/3	9
Saved %	0%	100%	71%	67%	60%
Times Broken	1	0	2	1	4

Tennis Scores in Madrid

• Yan BaiBai – Jie CuiCui (6-2 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Yecong HeHe – Zihao XiaXia (7-6⁷ 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (4-1) – H2H and prediction
• Cori GauffGauff – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (3-11) – H2H and prediction