Iga Swiatek and Cori Gauff will fight against each other in the semifinal of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 15^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 4:00 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.48
Cori Gauff -> 2.65

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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Cori Gauff

This will be the 15^th time that Iga Swiatek and Cori Gauff clash against each other. The head to head is 11-3 for Swiatek (see full H2H stats), 5-0 on clay.

The last time that they locked horns, Gauff won 6-4 6-4 in the final in Australia back in January 2025.

Iga Swiatek

Ranked no. 2, Iga reached the semifinal after beating Alexandra Eala 4-6 6-4 6-2, Linda Noskova 6-4 6-2, Diana Shnaider 6-0 6-7(3) 6-4 and Madison Keys 0-6 6-3 6-2.

In the quarter against Keys, Swiatek recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (0-6 6-3 6-2). During the match, Swiatek and Keys scored the same amount of points (67). However, the world no. 2 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Swiatek was very aggressive to blast 24 winners.

Regarding the service games, Swiatek recorded 3 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Iga Swiatek lost the serve 4 times and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Swiatek put 53% of her first serves in, winning 63% (24/38) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (17/34) on the 2nd serve. Iga broke Keys 4 times after converting 57% of her break points (4/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Pole has dropped 3 set in this competition to win 54% of the points she played.

Swiatek has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 82% of her matches (375-83). 5-1 on clay in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Swiatek has a compiled 142-19 match record in the last years on clay.

The Pole’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Australia.

Iga has a composed 26-7 win-loss record in 2025, 5-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Cori Gauff

Ranked no. 4, Gauff got to the semifinal after beating Dayana Yastremska 0-6 6-2 7-5, Ann Li 6-2 6-3, Belinda Bencic 6-4 6-2 and Mirra Andreeva 7-5 6-1.

In the quarter, The American had a good straight sets win against Andreeva (7-5 6-1). During the match Gauff scored 78 points vs Andreeva’s 54. The American was pretty aggressive to blast 22 winners.

Talking about serving, Gauff scored just 1 ace during the entire match and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Cori Gauff was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 85% (22/26) of her 1st serve and 54% (13/24) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve twice. Gauff broke Andreeva 5 times after converting 31% of her break points (5/16).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Gauff has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Australia where she overcame Iga Swiatek in the final 6-4 6-4.

The American has an aggregate 18-6 win-loss record in 2025, 5-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Previously, her best result was reaching the 4^th round in 2024. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Swiatek	Gauff
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	11	9
Tot Games	98	80
Pts	330-282	300-228
Total Points	612	528
Winners	123	92
%Winners	37%	31%

Both Swiatek and Gauff played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Iga Swiatek surrendered 3 sets, while Cori Gauff conceded 1 set. Swiatek has played 2 sets more than Gauff (11 vs 9). Therefore, Swiatek played 18 games more than Gauff. Iga scored 123 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Cori struck 92 winners (31%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Swiatek	Gauff
Aces	18	7
Avg per match	4.5	1.8
1st in	181/316	121/227
%1st in	57%	53%
1st pts	123/181	92/121
%1st pts	68%	76%
2nd pts	67/135	52/106
%2nd pts	50%	49%

Swiatek blasted 18 aces (4.5 per match). Gauff recorded 7 aces (1.8 per match). Swiatek won 68% points on her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Gauff won 76% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Swiatek	Gauff
Won	21	21
Converted	21/41	21/53
% Converted	51%	40%
Conceded	33	22
Saved	21	10
% Saved	64%	45%
Times Broken	12	12

Swiatek broke her opponents 21 times with a 51% conversion rate. Swiatek surrendered her serve 12 times and she saved 64% of the break points that she conceded. Gauff broke her opponents 21 times with a 40% conversion rate. Cori conceded her serve 12 times and she saved 45% of the break points that she conceded.

Swiatek
	R2 Eala	R3 Noskova	R4 Shnaider	1/4 Keys	Total
Score	4-6 6-4 6-2	6-4 6-2	6-0 6-73 6-4	0-6 6-3 6-2
Tot Set	3	2	3	3	11
Tot Games	28	18	29	23	98
pts	100-80	58-45	105-90	67-67	330-282
Total points	180	103	195	134	612
Winners	30	27	42	24	123
%Winners	30%	47%	40%	36%	37%
SERVE
Aces	6	4	5	3	18
Double Faults	4	0	5	4	13
1st in	47/80	36/59	60/105	38/72	181/316
% 1st in	59%	61%	57%	53%	57%
1st pts	30/47	27/36	42/60	24/38	123/181
% 1st pts	64%	75%	70%	63%	68%
2nd pts	18/33	11/23	21/45	17/34	67/135
% 2nd pts	55%	48%	47%	50%	50%
Breaks
Won	7	4	6	4	21
Converted	7/16	4/4	6/14	4/7	21/41
Converted %	44%	100%	43%	57%	51%
Conceded	10	4	13	6	33
Saved	5/10	3/4	11/13	2/6	21
Saved %	50%	75%	85%	33%	61%
Times Broken	5	1	2	4	12

Gauff
	R2 Yastremska	R3 Li	R4 Bencic	1/4 Andreeva	Total
Score	0-6 6-2 7-5	6-2 6-3	6-4 6-2	7-5 6-1
Tot Set	3	2	2	2	9
Tot Games	26	17	18	19	80
pts	94-86	61-42	67-46	78-54	300-228
Total points	180	103	113	132	528
Winners	26	22	22	22	92
%Winners	28%	36%	33%	28%	31%
SERVE
Aces	3	1	2	1	7
Double Faults	8	4	1	2	15
1st in	39/81	30/50	26/46	26/50	121/227
% 1st in	48%	60%	57%	52%	53%
1st pts	26/39	22/30	22/26	22/26	92/121
% 1st pts	67%	73%	85%	85%	76%
2nd pts	16/42	10/20	13/20	13/24	52/106
% 2nd pts	38%	50%	65%	54%	49%
Breaks
Won	7	5	4	5	21
Converted	7/14	5/9	4/14	5/16	21/53
Converted %	50%	56%	29%	31%	40%
Conceded	14	3	1	4	22
Saved	7/14	1/3	0/1	2/4	10
Saved %	50%	33%	0%	50%	33%
Times Broken	7	2	1	2	12

Tennis Scores in Madrid

• Yan BaiBai – Jie CuiCui (6-2 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Yecong HeHe – Zihao XiaXia (7-6⁷ 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Marta KostyukKostyuk (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Cori GauffGauff – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (3-11) – H2H and prediction