Luca Nardi and Alexey Vatutin will clash against each other in the 2nd round of the Estoril Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 12:00 pm on COURT CTE. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Luca Nardi who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Luca Nardi is the pick to win this match.
Luca Nardi -> 1.285
Alexey Vatutin -> 3.36

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Prediction and head to head Luca Nardi vs. Alexey Vatutin

This will be the 2nd time that Luca Nardi and Alexey Vatutin fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Nardi (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.

The last time that they competed against each other, Nardi won 7-6(6) 6-4 in the 2nd round in the Forli 3 Challenger back in 2021.

Luca Nardi

Luca Nardi

17 - 14win/loss

Hard
9-8
I Hard
6-3
Clay
2-3
Rank
107
High
67
LWWLLLWLLL
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 30-30 14-13 8-9 8-6 0-2 0-0
2024 32-27 14-14 8-5 9-4 1-4 0-0
2023 41-36 20-10 8-13 12-12 1-1 0-0
2022 33-20 5-2 11-10 17-8 0-0 0-0
2021 33-24 3-3 26-13 4-8 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 100, the Italian reached the 2nd round after defeating Aleksandar Kovacevic 6-2 6-3.

In the 1st round, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Kovacevic (6-2 6-3). During the match, Nardi scored 59 points vs Kovacevic’s 41. The Italian was quite aggressive to blast 21 winners.

Talking about the service games, Nardi scored just 1 ace and he was very consistent in conceding no double faults. Luca Nardi was pretty effective on serve to win 84% (21/25) of his 1st serve and 68% (13/19) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Luca broke Kovacevic 4 times after converting 57% of his break points (4/7).

Nardi has a winning record in the last 8 years having won 56% of his matches (170-134). 2-3 on clay in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Nardi has a composed61-50 record in the last 8 years on clay.

Nardi’s best result of the season was reaching the final in the Koblenz Challenger.

The Italian has an aggregate 17-14 win-loss record in 2025, 2-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Estoril Challenger

Luca has never competed in this tournament before.

Estoril Challenger
Nardi's Record

Alexey Vatutin

Alexey Vatutin

14 - 9win/loss

Clay
7-2
Rank
413
High
136
WLWLLWLWLW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 39-30 2-1 26-16 11-13 0-0 0-0
2024 52-32 0-2 32-16 20-14 0-0 0-0
2023 27-27 5-7 6-8 12-11 0-0 4-1
2022 38-39 8-3 19-20 11-16 0-0 0-0
2021 31-38 0-1 15-26 16-11 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 333, Vatutin got to the 2nd round after beating Marco Cecchinato 6-2 6-1, Francisco Rocha 4-6 6-3 6-0 and Pedro Martinez Portero 6-4 6-3.

In the 1st round, Vatutin had a good straight sets win against Martinez Portero (6-4 6-3). During the match Vatutin scored 70 points vs Martinez Portero’s 55. Alexey was exceptionally aggressive to blast 32 winners.

About the serving games, Vatutin recorded 2 aces and he was very solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Overall, Alexey Vatutin was quite effective on serve to win 74% (32/43) of his 1st serve and 64% (9/14) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Vatutin broke Martinez Portero 3 times after converting 27% of his break points (3/11).

The Russian has a composed 14-9 win-loss record in 2025, 7-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Estoril Challenger
Vatutin's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament

L.Nardi
A.Vatutin
1h:09
1h:09
Time on court​
!
4h:11
4h:11
1h:09
1h:09
Last match​
1h:27
1h:27
1
1
Match played
!
3
3
17
17
Games Played​
59
59
2
2
Set played​​
7
7
59
59
Total points​
217
217
59
59
Avg point​
72.3
72.3
21
21
Winners
90
90
21
21
Avg Winners​
30
30
36%
36%
Ratio winners
41%
41%
-- Serve --
1
1
Aces
4
4
1
1
Avg Aces
1.3
1.3
0
0
Double Faults
3
3
0
0
Avg Double Faults
1
1
21/25
21/25
1st won total​
90/128
90/128
!
84%
84%
1st won %
70%
70%
13/19
13/19
2nd won total​
37/63
37/63
!
68%
68%
2nd won %
59%
59%
-- Break Points --
4/7
4/7
BP won
14/26
14/26
4/7
4/7
Avg BP won
4.7/8.7
4.7/8.7
!
57%
57%
Won
!
54%
54%
2
2
Conceded
13
13
2
2
Avg Conceded
4.3
4.3
0
0
Broken
4
4
!
0
0
Avg Broken
1.3
1.3
2
2
Saved
9
9
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Nardi Vatutin
Match played 1 3
Tot Set 2 7
Tot Games 17 59
Pts 59-41 217-153
Total Points 100 370
Winners 21 90
%Winners 36% 41%

Nardi played 1 match while Vatutin competed in 3 matches. Vatutin started his run from the qualifications while Nardi had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Alexey Vatutin lost 1 set while Luca Nardi hasn’t conceded a set so far. Nardi has played 5 set(s) less than Vatutin (2 vs 7). Therefore, Nardi played 42 games less than Vatutin. Nardi scored 21 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Vatutin bagged 90 winners (41%).

Serve Performance

Serve Nardi Vatutin
Aces 1 4
Avg per match 1 1.3
1st in 25/44 128/191
%1st in 57% 67%
1st pts 21/25 90/128
%1st pts 84% 70%
2nd pts 13/19 37/63
%2nd pts 68% 59%

Nardi fired 1 ace . Vatutin also managed to score 4 aces (1.3 per match). Nardi won 84% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 68% of the points. On the other side, Vatutin won 70% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 59% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Nardi Vatutin
Won 4 14
Converted 4/7 14/26
% Converted 57% 54%
Conceded 2 13
Saved 2 9
% Saved 100% 69%
Times Broken 0 4

The Italian broke his opponent 4 times with a 57% conversion rate. Nardi had a solid display on his serve as he has never lost a single service game after saving 2 break points. The Russian broke his opponents 14 times with a 54% conversion rate. Vatutin conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 69% of the break points that he conceded.

Nardi
R1
Kovacevic		 Total
Score 6-2 6-3
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 17 17
pts 59-41 59-41
Total points 100 100
Winners 21 21
%Winners 36% 36%
SERVE
Aces 1 1
Double Faults 0 0
1st in 25/44 25/44
% 1st in 57% 57%
1st pts 21/25 21/25
% 1st pts 84% 84%
2nd pts 13/19 13/19
% 2nd pts 68% 68%
Breaks
Won 4 4
Converted 4/7 4/7
Converted % 57% 57%
Conceded 2 2
Saved 2/2 2
Saved % 100% 100%
Times Broken 0 0
Vatutin
Q1
Cecchinato		 Q3
Rocha		 R1
Martinez Portero		 Total
Score 6-2 6-1 4-6 6-3 6-0 6-4 6-3
Tot Set 2 3 2 7
Tot Games 15 25 19 59
pts 60-29 87-69 70-55 217-153
Total points 89 156 125 370
Winners 19 39 32 90
%Winners 32% 45% 46% 41%
SERVE
Aces 2 0 2 4
Double Faults 1 2 0 3
1st in 23/37 62/97 43/57 128/191
% 1st in 62% 64% 75% 67%
1st pts 19/23 39/62 32/43 90/128
% 1st pts 83% 63% 74% 70%
2nd pts 8/14 20/35 9/14 37/63
% 2nd pts 57% 57% 64% 59%
Breaks
Won 6 5 3 14
Converted 6/10 5/5 3/11 14/26
Converted % 60% 100% 27% 54%
Conceded 5 6 2 13
Saved 4/5 4/6 1/2 9
Saved % 80% 67% 50% 197%
Times Broken 1 2 1 4

Tennis Scores in Estoril Challenger

Upcoming matches in the draw

Nardi
More Stats
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Vatutin

Click for FULL STATS