Jack Draper and Matteo Arnaldi will square off in the quarter of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 5:30 pm on ARANTXA SANCHEZ STADIUM. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jack Draper who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jack Draper is the pick to win this match.
Jack Draper -> 1.33
Matteo Arnaldi -> 3.32
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Prediction and head to head Jack Draper vs. Matteo Arnaldi
There is no head to head record between Jack Draper and Matteo Arnaldi since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.
Jack Draper
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22-6 | 13-3 | 9-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 39-22 | 19-10 | 5-7 | 7-3 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 34-15 | 15-8 | 3-3 | 16-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 46-19 | 12-6 | 2-2 | 26-7 | 6-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 18-16 | 6-6 | 7-5 | 3-2 | 2-2 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 6 (career-high), Draper reached the quarter after defeating Tallon Griekspoor 6-3 6-4, Matteo Berrettini 7-6(2) ret. and Tommy Paul 6-2 6-2.
In the 4th round, The Brit had a good straight sets win against Paul (6-2 6-2). During the match, Draper scored 60 points vs Paul’s 35. Draper was extremely aggressive to blast 18 winners.
Regarding the service games, Draper scored 4 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Jack Draper was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 86% (18/21) of his 1st serve and 70% (14/20) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Draper broke Paul 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Brit hasn’t lost yet a set in this competition to conquer 60% of the points he played.
Draper has a solid match record in the last 8 years having won 69% of his matches (243-108). 4-1 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Draper has a composed28-20 match record in the last 8 years on clay.
His best result of the season was winning the title in Indian Wells where he defeated Holger Rune in the final 6-2 6-2.
Jack has an aggregate 17-4 win-loss record in 2025, 4-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Matteo Arnaldi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14-12 | 6-6 | 6-5 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 29-26 | 17-13 | 10-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-26 | 21-15 | 23-7 | 4-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-35 | 9-3 | 37-20 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-24 | 2-1 | 51-18 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 44, Matteo got to the quarter after defeating Borna Coric 4-6 6-4 7-5, Novak Djokovic 6-3 6-4, Damir Dzumhur 6-3 6-4 and Frances Tiafoe 6-3 7-5.
In the 4th round, Arnaldi had a good straight sets win against Tiafoe (6-3 7-5). During the match Arnaldi scored 67 points vs Tiafoe’s 60. The Italian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 28 winners.
Talking about serving, Arnaldi managed to score 6 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Matteo Arnaldi lost the serve once and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Arnaldi put 53% of his first serves in, winning 70% (28/40) of the points behind his 1st serve and 58% (21/36) on the 2nd serve. Arnaldi broke Tiafoe 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Arnaldi has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
Matteo’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Delray Beach.
Matteo has a composed 12-9 win-loss record in 2025, 4-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Draper | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 48 | 91 |
| Pts | 164-118 | 315-283 |
| Total Points | 282 | 598 |
| Winners | 63 | 124 |
| %Winners | 38% | 39% |
Draper played 3 matches while Arnaldi competed in 4 matches. At the moment, Matteo Arnaldi surrendered 1 set while Jack Draper hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Draper has played 3 set(s) less than Arnaldi (6 vs 9). Therefore, Draper played 43 games less than Arnaldi. The Brit scored 63 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Arnaldi blasted 124 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Draper | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 12 | 30 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 7.5 |
| 1st in | 78/135 | 172/324 |
| %1st in | 58% | 53% |
| 1st pts | 63/78 | 124/172 |
| %1st pts | 81% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 38/57 | 86/152 |
| %2nd pts | 67% | 57% |
Draper recorded 12 aces (4 per match). Arnaldi fired 30 aces (7.5 per match). Draper won 81% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 67% of the points. On the other side, Arnaldi won 72% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Draper | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 11 |
| Converted | 7/16 | 11/18 |
| % Converted | 44% | 61% |
| Conceded | 3 | 25 |
| Saved | 2 | 21 |
| % Saved | 67% | 84% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 4 |
Draper broke his opponents 7 times with a 44% conversion rate. Jack lost his serve once and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. Arnaldi broke his opponents 11 times with a 61% conversion rate. Arnaldi conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 84% of the break points that he conceded.
| Draper | |||||
| R2 Griekspoor |
R3 Berrettini |
R4 Paul |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 7-62 ret. | 6-2 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 13 | 16 | 48 | |
| pts | 58-45 | 46-38 | 60-35 | 164-118 | |
| Total points | 103 | 84 | 95 | 282 | |
| Winners | 23 | 22 | 18 | 63 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 48% | 30% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 5 | 3 | 4 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 27/53 | 30/41 | 21/41 | 78/135 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 73% | 51% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 23/27 | 22/30 | 18/21 | 63/78 | |
| % 1st pts | 85% | 73% | 86% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/26 | 6/11 | 14/20 | 38/57 | |
| % 2nd pts | 69% | 55% | 70% | 67% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | |
| Converted | 2/4 | 1/6 | 4/6 | 7/16 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 17% | 67% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 50% | – | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Arnaldi | ||||||
| R1 Coric |
R2 Djokovic |
R3 Dzumhur |
R4 Tiafoe |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-4 7-5 | 6-3 6-4 | 6-3 6-4 | 6-3 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 32 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 91 | |
| pts | 103-100 | 67-60 | 78-63 | 67-60 | 315-283 | |
| Total points | 203 | 127 | 141 | 127 | 598 | |
| Winners | 36 | 29 | 31 | 28 | 124 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 43% | 40% | 42% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 13 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 30 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 49/97 | 41/74 | 42/77 | 40/76 | 172/324 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 55% | 55% | 53% | 53% | |
| 1st pts | 36/49 | 29/41 | 31/42 | 28/40 | 124/172 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 71% | 74% | 70% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 27/48 | 17/33 | 21/35 | 21/36 | 86/152 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 52% | 60% | 58% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | |
| Converted | 3/6 | 3/3 | 2/4 | 3/5 | 11/18 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 100% | 50% | 60% | 61% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 25 | |
| Saved | 6/8 | 4/5 | 5/5 | 6/7 | 21 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 80% | 100% | 86% | 114% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWLWWWWW
LWWLLWWWWL Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Alexandre MullerMuller (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Tommy PaulPaul – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (6-3 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (6-3 7-63) – See score progression
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Jacob FearnleyFearnley (6-4 7-63) – See score progression
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (7-5 7-63) – See score progression
- Gabriel DialloDiallo – Cameron NorrieNorrie (2-6 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Jack DraperDraper – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (7-62 ret.) – See score progression
- Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Damir DzumhurDzumhur (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Alexander BublikBublik – Andrey RublevRublev (6-4 0-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (2-6 7-63 7-60) – See score progression
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Francisco ComesanaComesana (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Jakub MensikMensik – Ben SheltonShelton (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Taylor FritzFritz – Benjamin BonziBonzi (4-6 7-5 ret.) – See score progression
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Flavio CobolliCobolli (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Gabriel DialloDiallo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Casper RuudRuud – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jack DraperDraper – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
