Daniil Medvedev and Casper Ruud will clash against each other in the quarter of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 1:00 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Casper Ruud who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Casper Ruud is the pick to win this match.
Casper Ruud -> 1.53
Daniil Medvedev -> 2.5
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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Casper Ruud
This will be the 4th time that Daniil Medvedev and Casper Ruud play each other. The head to head is 3-0 for Medvedev (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they fought against each other, Medvedev won 6-4 6-2 in the semifinal in Nitto atp finals back in 2021.
Highlights Daniil Medvedev vs Casper Ruud – Nitto atp finals 20-November-2021
Daniil Medvedev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18-10 | 9-5 | 6-3 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 46-21 | 28-9 | 11-5 | 1-5 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 66-18 | 38-8 | 10-3 | 11-4 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 45-19 | 26-8 | 3-2 | 8-6 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 63-13 | 33-5 | 5-3 | 18-3 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 10, Medvedev reached the quarter after defeating Laslo Djere w/o, Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6-2 6-2 and Brandon Nakashima 3-6 6-1 6-4.
In the 4th round against Nakashima, Medvedev recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-1 6-4). During the match, Medvedev scored 84 points vs Nakashima’s 77. The Russian was extremely aggressive to blast 38 winners.
Regarding the service games, Medvedev blasted 7 aces and he committed only 7 double faults. Daniil Medvedev lost the serve twice and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Medvedev put 60% of his first serves in, winning 78% (38/49) of the points behind his 1st serve and 44% (14/32) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Nakashima 4 times after converting 57% of his break points (4/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Daniil has surrendered 1 set in this event to win 56% of the points he played.
Medvedev has an extraordinary win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 71% of his matches (473-190). 4-1 on clay in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Medvedev has a compiled 55-37 record in the last years on clay.
Medvedev’s best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in Marseille and Indian Wells.
Daniil has an aggregate 16-8 win-loss record in 2025, 4-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Casper Ruud
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24-7 | 6-3 | 12-3 | 6-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 51-25 | 21-9 | 24-7 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-23 | 12-12 | 22-8 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 51-22 | 18-8 | 25-7 | 7-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 57-17 | 16-6 | 28-5 | 11-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 15, Ruud got to the quarter after defeating Arthur Rinderknech 6-3 6-4, Sebastian Korda 6-3 6-3 and Taylor Fritz 7-5 6-4.
In the 4th round, Casper had a good straight sets win against Fritz (7-5 6-4). During the match Ruud scored 71 points vs Fritz’s 63. The Norwegian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 33 winners.
About the serving games, Ruud recorded 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Casper Ruud was extremely efficient on serve to win 73% (33/45) of his 1st serve and 56% (15/27) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Casper broke Fritz 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Ruud hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
The Norwegian’s best result of the season was getting to the final in Dallas.
Casper has a composed 18-6 win-loss record in 2025, 6-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Medvedev | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 42 | 59 |
| Pts | 139-109 | 189-157 |
| Total Points | 248 | 346 |
| Winners | 60 | 90 |
| %Winners | 43% | 48% |
Medvedev played 2 matches while Ruud competed in 3 matches. At the moment, Daniil Medvedev lost 1 set while Casper Ruud hasn’t conceded a set so far. Medvedev has played 1 set(s) less than Ruud (5 vs 6). Therefore, Medvedev played 17 games less than Ruud. Medvedev scored 60 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, The Norwegian recorded 90 winners (48%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Medvedev | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 9 | 8 |
| Avg per match | 4.5 | 2.7 |
| 1st in | 78/126 | 122/184 |
| %1st in | 62% | 66% |
| 1st pts | 60/78 | 90/122 |
| %1st pts | 77% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 25/48 | 36/62 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 58% |
Medvedev bagged 9 aces (4.5 per match). Ruud struck 8 aces (2.7 per match). Medvedev won 77% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Ruud won 74% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Medvedev | Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 10 |
| Converted | 8/12 | 10/18 |
| % Converted | 67% | 56% |
| Conceded | 4 | 10 |
| Saved | 2 | 7 |
| % Saved | 50% | 70% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 |
Daniil broke his opponents 8 times with a 67% conversion rate. Daniil conceded his serve twice and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. Ruud broke his opponents 10 times with a 56% conversion rate. Casper conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 70% of the break points that he conceded.
| Medvedev | |||||
| R2 Djere |
R3 Manuel |
R4 Nakashima |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | w/o | 6-2 6-2 | 3-6 6-1 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | – | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | – | 16 | 26 | 42 | |
| pts | – | 55-32 | 84-77 | 139-109 | |
| Total points | – | 87 | 161 | 248 | |
| Winners | – | 22 | 38 | 60 | |
| %Winners | – | 40% | 45% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | – | 2 | 7 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | – | 2 | 7 | 9 | |
| 1st in | – | 29/45 | 49/81 | 78/126 | |
| % 1st in | – | 64% | 60% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | – | 22/29 | 38/49 | 60/78 | |
| % 1st pts | – | 76% | 78% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | – | 11/16 | 14/32 | 25/48 | |
| % 2nd pts | – | 69% | 44% | 52% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | – | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Converted | – | 4/5 | 4/7 | 8/12 | |
| Converted % | – | 80% | 57% | 67% | |
| Conceded | – | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Saved | – | 1/1 | 1/3 | 2 | |
| Saved % | – | 100% | 33% | 44% | |
| Times Broken | – | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Ruud | |||||
| R2 Rinderknech |
R3 Korda |
R4 Fritz |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 6-3 6-3 | 7-5 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 18 | 22 | 59 | |
| pts | 56-46 | 62-48 | 71-63 | 189-157 | |
| Total points | 102 | 110 | 134 | 346 | |
| Winners | 28 | 29 | 33 | 90 | |
| %Winners | 50% | 47% | 46% | 48% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 37/54 | 40/58 | 45/72 | 122/184 | |
| % 1st in | 69% | 69% | 63% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 28/37 | 29/40 | 33/45 | 90/122 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 73% | 73% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/17 | 10/18 | 15/27 | 36/62 | |
| % 2nd pts | 65% | 56% | 56% | 58% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | |
| Converted | 3/3 | 4/8 | 3/7 | 10/18 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 50% | 43% | 56% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 4/5 | 2/3 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 80% | 67% | 66% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLWWLWWL
LWWWWWWWWW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Gabriel DialloDiallo – Cameron NorrieNorrie (2-6 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Alexandre MullerMuller (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Tommy PaulPaul – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (6-3 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (6-3 7-63) – See score progression
- Jack DraperDraper – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (7-62 ret.) – See score progression
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Jacob FearnleyFearnley (6-4 7-63) – See score progression
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (7-5 7-63) – See score progression
- Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Damir DzumhurDzumhur (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Jakub MensikMensik – Ben SheltonShelton (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Taylor FritzFritz – Benjamin BonziBonzi (4-6 7-5 ret.) – See score progression
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Flavio CobolliCobolli (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Francisco ComesanaComesana (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Alexander BublikBublik – Andrey RublevRublev (6-4 0-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (2-6 7-63 7-60) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Gabriel DialloDiallo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Casper RuudRuud – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jack DraperDraper – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
