Aryna Sabalenka and Marta Kostyuk will play each other in the quarter of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 8:00 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.132
Marta Kostyuk -> 5.9

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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marta Kostyuk

This will be the 3^rd time that Aryna Sabalenka and Marta Kostyuk fight against each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.

The last time that they competed against each other, Sabalenka won 6-3 6-2

in the 1^st round in at the French Open back in 2023.

Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk – French Open 28-May-2023

Aryna Sabalenka

Currently world no. 1 the Belarussian reached the quarter after beating Anna Blinkova 6-3 6-4, Elise Mertens 3-6 6-2 6-1 and Peyton Stearns 6-2 6-4.

In the 4^th round, Aryna had a good straight sets win against Stearns (6-2 6-4). During the match, Sabalenka scored 66 points vs Stearns’s 51. Sabalenka was exceptionally aggressive to blast 28 winners.

Regarding the service games, Sabalenka struck 3 aces and she was very solid in conceding no double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve once and she saved 12 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 56% of her first serves in, winning 78% (28/36) of the points behind her 1st serve and 43% (12/28) on the 2nd serve. The Belarussian broke Stearns 4 times after converting 57% of her break points (4/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Sabalenka has conceded 1 set in this competition to win 55% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a good match record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (402-173). 5-1 on clay in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has a compiled 82-40 match record in the last years on clay.

Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Brisbane where she beat Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2 and in Miami where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 6-2.

The Belarussian has a composed 28-5 win-loss record in 2025, 5-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Marta Kostyuk

Ranked no. 36, Marta reached the quarter after defeating Emma Raducanu 6-4 2-6 6-2, Veronika Kudermetova 6-0 4-6 6-4 and Anastasia Potapova 6-3 6-2.

In the 4^th round, Kostyuk had a good straight sets win against Potapova (6-3 6-2). During the match Kostyuk scored 70 points vs Potapova’s 54. The Ukrainian was pretty aggressive to blast 26 winners.

Talking about serving, Kostyuk wasn’t able to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 3 double faults. Marta Kostyuk lost the serve once and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Kostyuk put 67% of her first serves in, winning 70% (26/37) of the points behind her 1st serve and 56% (10/18) on the 2nd serve. The Ukrainian broke Potapova 5 times after converting 56% of her break points (5/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Ukrainian has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.

Marta has a composed 14-9 win-loss record in 2025, 4-1 on clay (See FULL STATS)

.

Previously in Madrid

Previously, her best result was reaching the 2^nd round in 2022, 2023 and 2024. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sabalenka	Kostyuk
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	7	8
Tot Games	61	69
Pts	230-187	257-229
Total Points	417	486
Winners	84	78
%Winners	37%	30%

Both Sabalenka and Kostyuk played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka lost 1 set, while Marta Kostyuk surrendered 2 sets. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Kostyuk (7 vs 8). Therefore, Sabalenka played 8 games less than Kostyuk. Aryna scored 84 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Marta struck 78 winners (30%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sabalenka	Kostyuk
Aces	10	3
Avg per match	3.3	1
1st in	116/213	117/213
%1st in	54%	55%
1st pts	84/116	78/117
%1st pts	72%	67%
2nd pts	45/97	47/96
%2nd pts	46%	49%

Sabalenka struck 10 aces (3.3 per match). Kostyuk scored 3 aces (1 per match). Sabalenka won 72% points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 46% of the points. On the other side, Kostyuk won 67% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sabalenka	Kostyuk
Won	14	18
Converted	14/25	18/40
% Converted	56%	45%
Conceded	28	18
Saved	22	8
% Saved	79%	44%
Times Broken	6	10

Aryna broke her opponents 14 times with a 56% conversion rate. Sabalenka dropped her serve 6 times and she saved 79% of the break points that she conceded. Marta broke her opponents 18 times with a 45% conversion rate. Kostyuk conceded her serve 10 times and she saved 44% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
	R2 Blinkova	R3 Mertens	R4 Stearns	Total
Score	6-3 6-4	3-6 6-2 6-1	6-2 6-4
Tot Set	2	3	2	7
Tot Games	19	24	18	61
pts	78-69	86-67	66-51	230-187
Total points	147	153	117	417
Winners	27	29	28	84
%Winners	35%	34%	42%	37%
SERVE
Aces	1	6	3	10
Double Faults	5	4	0	9
1st in	36/72	44/77	36/64	116/213
% 1st in	50%	57%	56%	54%
1st pts	27/36	29/44	28/36	84/116
% 1st pts	75%	66%	78%	72%
2nd pts	18/36	15/33	12/28	45/97
% 2nd pts	50%	45%	43%	46%
Breaks
Won	3	7	4	14
Converted	3/7	7/11	4/7	14/25
Converted %	43%	64%	57%	56%
Conceded	7	8	13	28
Saved	6/7	4/8	12/13	22
Saved %	86%	50%	92%	76%
Times Broken	1	4	1	6

Kostyuk
	R2 Raducanu	R3 Kudermetova	R4 Potapova	Total
Score	6-4 2-6 6-2	6-0 4-6 6-4	6-3 6-2
Tot Set	3	3	2	8
Tot Games	26	26	17	69
pts	84-85	103-90	70-54	257-229
Total points	169	193	124	486
Winners	24	28	26	78
%Winners	29%	27%	37%	30%
SERVE
Aces	1	2	0	3
Double Faults	9	5	3	17
1st in	39/77	41/81	37/55	117/213
% 1st in	51%	51%	67%	55%
1st pts	24/39	28/41	26/37	78/117
% 1st pts	62%	68%	70%	67%
2nd pts	17/38	20/40	10/18	47/96
% 2nd pts	45%	50%	56%	49%
Breaks
Won	6	7	5	18
Converted	6/16	7/15	5/9	18/40
Converted %	38%	47%	56%	45%
Conceded	7	9	2	18
Saved	2/7	5/9	1/2	8
Saved %	29%	56%	50%	45%
Times Broken	5	4	1	10

Tennis Scores in Madrid

• Jie CuiCui – Fajing SunSun (6-4 1-0 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Yecong HeHe – Xin GaoGao (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Yan BaiBai – Cheng-Yu YuYu (6-4 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Zihao XiaXia – Wei Qiang ZhengQiang Zheng (6-7⁰ 6-2 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Marta KostyukKostyuk (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Moyuka UchijimaUchijima – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Madison KeysKeys – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (2-4) – H2H and prediction