Aryna Sabalenka and Marta Kostyuk will play each other in the quarter of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 8:00 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.132
Marta Kostyuk -> 5.9
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marta Kostyuk
This will be the 3rd time that Aryna Sabalenka and Marta Kostyuk fight against each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they competed against each other, Sabalenka won 6-3 6-2 in the 1st round in at the French Open back in 2023.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk – French Open 28-May-2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K4pJZIssqk
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 63-12 | 35-6 | 17-3 | 4-1 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 the Belarussian reached the quarter after beating Anna Blinkova 6-3 6-4, Elise Mertens 3-6 6-2 6-1 and Peyton Stearns 6-2 6-4.
In the 4th round, Aryna had a good straight sets win against Stearns (6-2 6-4). During the match, Sabalenka scored 66 points vs Stearns’s 51. Sabalenka was exceptionally aggressive to blast 28 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka struck 3 aces and she was very solid in conceding no double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve once and she saved 12 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 56% of her first serves in, winning 78% (28/36) of the points behind her 1st serve and 43% (12/28) on the 2nd serve. The Belarussian broke Stearns 4 times after converting 57% of her break points (4/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sabalenka has conceded 1 set in this competition to win 55% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a good match record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (402-173). 5-1 on clay in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has a compiled 82-40 match record in the last years on clay.
Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Brisbane where she beat Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2 and in Miami where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 6-2.
The Belarussian has a composed 28-5 win-loss record in 2025, 5-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Marta Kostyuk
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 28-20 | 19-13 | 7-4 | 2-0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 34-22 | 24-14 | 8-5 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 26-22 | 22-16 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 28-20 | 18-11 | 3-4 | 4-3 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-17 | 8-9 | 10-4 | 3-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 36, Marta reached the quarter after defeating Emma Raducanu 6-4 2-6 6-2, Veronika Kudermetova 6-0 4-6 6-4 and Anastasia Potapova 6-3 6-2.
In the 4th round, Kostyuk had a good straight sets win against Potapova (6-3 6-2). During the match Kostyuk scored 70 points vs Potapova’s 54. The Ukrainian was pretty aggressive to blast 26 winners.
Talking about serving, Kostyuk wasn’t able to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 3 double faults. Marta Kostyuk lost the serve once and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Kostyuk put 67% of her first serves in, winning 70% (26/37) of the points behind her 1st serve and 56% (10/18) on the 2nd serve. The Ukrainian broke Potapova 5 times after converting 56% of her break points (5/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Ukrainian has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
Marta has a composed 14-9 win-loss record in 2025, 4-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2022, 2023 and 2024. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 61 | 69 |
| Pts | 230-187 | 257-229 |
| Total Points | 417 | 486 |
| Winners | 84 | 78 |
| %Winners | 37% | 30% |
Both Sabalenka and Kostyuk played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka lost 1 set, while Marta Kostyuk surrendered 2 sets. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Kostyuk (7 vs 8). Therefore, Sabalenka played 8 games less than Kostyuk. Aryna scored 84 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Marta struck 78 winners (30%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 10 | 3 |
| Avg per match | 3.3 | 1 |
| 1st in | 116/213 | 117/213 |
| %1st in | 54% | 55% |
| 1st pts | 84/116 | 78/117 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 67% |
| 2nd pts | 45/97 | 47/96 |
| %2nd pts | 46% | 49% |
Sabalenka struck 10 aces (3.3 per match). Kostyuk scored 3 aces (1 per match). Sabalenka won 72% points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 46% of the points. On the other side, Kostyuk won 67% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 14 | 18 |
| Converted | 14/25 | 18/40 |
| % Converted | 56% | 45% |
| Conceded | 28 | 18 |
| Saved | 22 | 8 |
| % Saved | 79% | 44% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 10 |
Aryna broke her opponents 14 times with a 56% conversion rate. Sabalenka dropped her serve 6 times and she saved 79% of the break points that she conceded. Marta broke her opponents 18 times with a 45% conversion rate. Kostyuk conceded her serve 10 times and she saved 44% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||||
| R2 Blinkova |
R3 Mertens |
R4 Stearns |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 3-6 6-2 6-1 | 6-2 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 24 | 18 | 61 | |
| pts | 78-69 | 86-67 | 66-51 | 230-187 | |
| Total points | 147 | 153 | 117 | 417 | |
| Winners | 27 | 29 | 28 | 84 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 34% | 42% | 37% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 1 | 6 | 3 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 4 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 36/72 | 44/77 | 36/64 | 116/213 | |
| % 1st in | 50% | 57% | 56% | 54% | |
| 1st pts | 27/36 | 29/44 | 28/36 | 84/116 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 66% | 78% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/36 | 15/33 | 12/28 | 45/97 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 45% | 43% | 46% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 7 | 4 | 14 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 7/11 | 4/7 | 14/25 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 64% | 57% | 56% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 8 | 13 | 28 | |
| Saved | 6/7 | 4/8 | 12/13 | 22 | |
| Saved % | 86% | 50% | 92% | 76% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | |
| Kostyuk | |||||
| R2 Raducanu |
R3 Kudermetova |
R4 Potapova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 2-6 6-2 | 6-0 4-6 6-4 | 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 26 | 17 | 69 | |
| pts | 84-85 | 103-90 | 70-54 | 257-229 | |
| Total points | 169 | 193 | 124 | 486 | |
| Winners | 24 | 28 | 26 | 78 | |
| %Winners | 29% | 27% | 37% | 30% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 9 | 5 | 3 | 17 | |
| 1st in | 39/77 | 41/81 | 37/55 | 117/213 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 51% | 67% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 24/39 | 28/41 | 26/37 | 78/117 | |
| % 1st pts | 62% | 68% | 70% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/38 | 20/40 | 10/18 | 47/96 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | 50% | 56% | 49% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 6 | 7 | 5 | 18 | |
| Converted | 6/16 | 7/15 | 5/9 | 18/40 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 47% | 56% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 9 | 2 | 18 | |
| Saved | 2/7 | 5/9 | 1/2 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 29% | 56% | 50% | 45% | |
| Times Broken | 5 | 4 | 1 | 10 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWLWWWW
LLWWWWLWWW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Jie CuiCui – Fajing SunSun (6-4 1-0 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Yecong HeHe – Xin GaoGao (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Yan BaiBai – Cheng-Yu YuYu (6-4 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Zihao XiaXia – Wei Qiang ZhengQiang Zheng (6-70 6-2 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Marta KostyukKostyuk (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Moyuka UchijimaUchijima – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (2-4) – H2H and prediction
