Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys will clash against each other in the quarter of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 7^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 1:00 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.33
Madison Keys -> 3.32

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Madison Keys

This will be the 7^th time that Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys face off. The head to head is 4-2 for Swiatek (see full H2H stats), 3-0 on clay.

The last time that they competed against each other, Keys won 5-7 6-1 7-6(8) in the semifinal in at the Australian Open back in January 2025.

Highlights Madison Keys vs Iga Swiatek – Australian Open 23-January-2025

Iga Swiatek

Ranked no. 2, the Pole got to the quarter after defeating Alexandra Eala 4-6 6-4 6-2, Linda Noskova 6-4 6-2 and Diana Shnaider 6-0 6-7(3) 6-4.

In the 4^th round, Swiatek defeated Shnaider (6-0 6-7³ 6-4). During the match, Swiatek scored 105 points vs Shnaider’s 90. Iga was pretty aggressive to blast 42 winners.

Regarding the service games, Swiatek scored 5 aces and she committed only 5 double faults. Iga Swiatek lost the serve twice and she saved 11 break points. Furthermore, Swiatek put 57% of her first serves in, winning 70% (42/60) of the points behind her 1st serve and 47% (21/45) on the 2nd serve. The Pole broke Shnaider 6 times after converting 43% of her break points (6/14).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Swiatek has surrendered 2 set in this competition to conquer 55% of the points she played.

Swiatek has a good win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 82% of her matches (374-83). 4-1 on clay in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Swiatek has a compiled 141-19 record in the last years on clay.

The Pole’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in Australia.

Iga has an overall 25-7 win-loss record in 2025, 4-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Madison Keys

Ranked no. 5 (career-high), the American got to the quarter after beating Lucia Bronzetti 6-4 6-3, Anna Kalinskaya 7-5 7-6(3) and Donna Vekic 6-2 6-3.

In the 4^th round, The American had a good straight sets win against Vekic (6-2 6-3). During the match Keys scored 65 points vs Vekic’s 49. The American was extremely aggressive to blast 23 winners.

Talking about serving, Keys struck 2 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve once and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 64% of her first serves in, winning 64% (23/36) of the points behind her 1st serve and 60% (12/20) on the 2nd serve. Keys broke Vekic 5 times after converting 63% of her break points (5/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Adelaide where she beat Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 4-6 6-1 and at the Australian Open where she defeated Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-3 2-6 7-5.

Keys has an aggregate 23-4 win-loss record in 2025, 4-1 on clay (See FULL STATS)

.

Previously in Madrid

Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2024. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Swiatek	Keys
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	8	6
Tot Games	75	61
Pts	263-215	216-176
Total Points	478	392
Winners	99	85
%Winners	38%	39%

Both Swiatek and Keys played 3 matches. At the moment, Iga Swiatek dropped 2 sets while Madison Keys hasn’t conceded a set so far. Swiatek has played 2 sets more than Keys (8 vs 6). Therefore, Swiatek played 14 games more than Keys. Iga scored 99 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Keys recorded 85 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Swiatek	Keys
Aces	15	10
Avg per match	5	3.3
1st in	143/244	133/199
%1st in	59%	67%
1st pts	99/143	85/133
%1st pts	69%	64%
2nd pts	50/101	38/66
%2nd pts	50%	58%

Swiatek fired 15 aces (5 per match). Keys struck 10 aces (3.3 per match). Swiatek won 69% points on her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 64% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 58% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Swiatek	Keys
Won	17	14
Converted	17/34	14/23
% Converted	50%	61%
Conceded	27	17
Saved	19	11
% Saved	70%	65%
Times Broken	8	6

Swiatek broke her opponents 17 times with a 50% conversion rate. Swiatek dropped her serve 8 times and she saved 70% of the break points that she conceded. Madison broke her opponents 14 times with a 61% conversion rate. Keys conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 65% of the break points that she conceded.

Swiatek
	R2 Eala	R3 Noskova	R4 Shnaider	Total
Score	4-6 6-4 6-2	6-4 6-2	6-0 6-73 6-4
Tot Set	3	2	3	8
Tot Games	28	18	29	75
pts	100-80	58-45	105-90	263-215
Total points	180	103	195	478
Winners	30	27	42	99
%Winners	30%	47%	40%	38%
SERVE
Aces	6	4	5	15
Double Faults	4	0	5	9
1st in	47/80	36/59	60/105	143/244
% 1st in	59%	61%	57%	59%
1st pts	30/47	27/36	42/60	99/143
% 1st pts	64%	75%	70%	69%
2nd pts	18/33	11/23	21/45	50/101
% 2nd pts	55%	48%	47%	50%
Breaks
Won	7	4	6	17
Converted	7/16	4/4	6/14	17/34
Converted %	44%	100%	43%	50%
Conceded	10	4	13	27
Saved	5/10	3/4	11/13	19
Saved %	50%	75%	85%	70%
Times Broken	5	1	2	8

Keys
	R2 Bronzetti	R3 Kalinskaya	R4 Vekic	Total
Score	6-4 6-3	7-5 7-63	6-2 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	19	25	17	61
pts	64-49	87-78	65-49	216-176
Total points	113	165	114	392
Winners	21	41	23	85
%Winners	33%	47%	35%	39%
SERVE
Aces	4	4	2	10
Double Faults	0	1	2	3
1st in	31/47	66/96	36/56	133/199
% 1st in	66%	69%	64%	67%
1st pts	21/31	41/66	23/36	85/133
% 1st pts	68%	62%	64%	64%
2nd pts	10/16	16/30	12/20	38/66
% 2nd pts	63%	53%	60%	58%
Breaks
Won	5	4	5	14
Converted	5/11	4/4	5/8	14/23
Converted %	45%	100%	63%	61%
Conceded	2	12	3	17
Saved	0/2	9/12	2/3	11
Saved %	0%	75%	67%	47%
Times Broken	2	3	1	6

Tennis Scores in Madrid

• Zihao XiaXia – Wei Qiang ZhengQiang Zheng (6-7⁰ 6-2 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jie CuiCui – Fajing SunSun (6-4 1-0 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Yecong HeHe – Xin GaoGao (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Yan BaiBai – Cheng-Yu YuYu (6-4 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Peyton StearnsStearns (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Marta KostyukKostyuk – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (1-4) – H2H and prediction
• Moyuka UchijimaUchijima – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Madison KeysKeys – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (2-4) – H2H and prediction