Grigor Dimitrov and Gabriel Diallo will square off in the 4th round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 7:30 pm on ARANTXA SANCHEZ STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Grigor Dimitrov who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Grigor Dimitrov is the pick to win this match.
Grigor Dimitrov -> 1.44
Gabriel Diallo -> 2.79
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Prediction and head to head Grigor Dimitrov vs. Gabriel Diallo
There is no head to head record between Grigor Dimitrov and Gabriel Diallo since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.
Grigor Dimitrov
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14-9 | 9-6 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 46-18 | 21-7 | 8-4 | 13-5 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-21 | 16-10 | 10-5 | 10-4 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 26-22 | 10-11 | 10-5 | 5-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 24-18 | 18-10 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 16, the Bulgarian got to the 4th round after beating Nicolas Jarry 6-3 6-4 and Jacob Fearnley 6-4 7-6(3).
In the 3rd round, Grigor had a good straight sets win against Fearnley (6-4 7-63). During the match, Dimitrov scored 82 points vs Fearnley’s 70. Dimitrov was extremely aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Talking about the service games, Dimitrov scored 11 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Grigor Dimitrov was quite efficient on serve to win 74% (31/42) of his 1st serve and 51% (18/35) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Dimitrov broke Fearnley 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Grigor hasn’t lost yet a set in this tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
Dimitrov has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 63% of his matches (308-182). 5-1 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Dimitrov has a compiled 64-43 record in the last years on clay.
Grigor’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in Brisbane and Miami.
Dimitrov has a compiled 14-7 win-loss record in 2025, 5-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Gabriel Diallo
17 - 13win/loss
53
53
LLWWWWLWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18-15 | 10-8 | 7-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 49-26 | 30-12 | 7-6 | 9-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-28 | 8-11 | 2-2 | 24-10 | 5-5 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 23-10 | 17-6 | 0-0 | 6-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 12-4 | 8-3 | 0-0 | 4-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 78 (career-high), Diallo reached the 4th round after defeating Nicolas Moreno De Alboran 6-3 6-3, Borna Coric 6-3 7-6(6), Zizou Bergs 6-1 6-2, Kamil Majchrzak 7-5 4-6 6-4 and Cameron Norrie 2-6 6-4 6-4.
In the 3rd round against Norrie, The Canadian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-4 6-4). During the match Diallo scored 107 points vs Norrie’s 105. Gabriel was quite aggressive to blast 53 winners.
About the serving games, Diallo managed to score 8 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Gabriel Diallo lost the serve twice and he saved 12 break points. Furthermore, Diallo put 72% of his first serves in, winning 71% (53/75) of the points behind his 1st serve and 41% (12/29) on the 2nd serve. Gabriel broke Norrie twice after converting 14% of his break points (2/14).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Gabriel started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
The Canadian has an aggregate 17-13 win-loss record in 2025, 6-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Gabriel has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Dimitrov | Diallo |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 10 |
| Tot Games | 42 | 93 |
| Pts | 154-130 | 319-266 |
| Total Points | 284 | 585 |
| Winners | 54 | 146 |
| %Winners | 35% | 46% |
Dimitrov played 2 matches while Diallo competed in 4 matches. Diallo started his run from the qualifications while Dimitrov had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Gabriel Diallo dropped 2 sets while Grigor Dimitrov hasn’t conceded a set so far. Dimitrov has played 6 set(s) less than Diallo (4 vs 10). Therefore, Dimitrov played 51 games less than Diallo. Grigor scored 54 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Diallo scored 146 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Dimitrov | Diallo |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 15 | 31 |
| Avg per match | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| 1st in | 73/141 | 197/286 |
| %1st in | 52% | 69% |
| 1st pts | 54/73 | 146/197 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 40/68 | 55/89 |
| %2nd pts | 59% | 62% |
Dimitrov managed to score 15 aces (7.5 per match). Diallo blasted 31 aces (7.8 per match). Dimitrov won 74% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Diallo won 74% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 62% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Dimitrov | Diallo |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 5 | 12 |
| Converted | 5/10 | 12/35 |
| % Converted | 50% | 34% |
| Conceded | 11 | 18 |
| Saved | 9 | 14 |
| % Saved | 82% | 78% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 4 |
Dimitrov broke his opponents 5 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Bulgarian dropped his serve twice and he saved 82% of the break points that he conceded. Gabriel broke his opponents 12 times with a 34% conversion rate. Diallo conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 78% of the break points that he conceded.
| Dimitrov | ||||
| R2 Jarry |
R3 Fearnley |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 6-4 7-63 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 23 | 42 | |
| pts | 72-60 | 82-70 | 154-130 | |
| Total points | 132 | 152 | 284 | |
| Winners | 23 | 31 | 54 | |
| %Winners | 32% | 38% | 35% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 4 | 11 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 2 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 31/64 | 42/77 | 73/141 | |
| % 1st in | 48% | 55% | 52% | |
| 1st pts | 23/31 | 31/42 | 54/73 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 74% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 22/33 | 18/35 | 40/68 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 51% | 59% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Converted | 2/5 | 3/5 | 5/10 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 60% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 6 | 11 | |
| Saved | 5/5 | 4/6 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 67% | 84% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Diallo | |||||||
| Q1 Moreno De Alboran |
Q3 Coric |
R1 Bergs |
R2 Majchrzak |
R3 Norrie |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-3 | 6-3 7-66 | 6-1 6-2 | 7-5 4-6 6-4 | 2-6 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 22 | 15 | 32 | 28 | 115 | |
| pts | 60-46 | – | 51-24 | 101-91 | 107-105 | 319-266 | |
| Total points | 106 | 0 | 75 | 192 | 212 | 585 | |
| Winners | 26 | 18 | 49 | 53 | 146 | ||
| %Winners | 43% | 0% | 35% | 49% | 50% | 46% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 9 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 31 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 | ||
| 1st in | 35/51 | / | 21/37 | 66/94 | 75/104 | 197/286 | |
| % 1st in | 69% | 0% | 57% | 70% | 72% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 26/35 | / | 18/21 | 49/66 | 53/75 | 146/197 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 0% | 86% | 74% | 71% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/16 | / | 14/16 | 17/28 | 12/29 | 55/89 | |
| % 2nd pts | 75% | 0% | 88% | 61% | 41% | 62% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | ||
| Converted | 3/7 | / | 4/4 | 3/10 | 2/14 | 12/35 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 0% | 100% | 30% | 14% | 34% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 18 | ||
| Saved | 1/1 | 0/ | 0/0 | 1/3 | 12/14 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 100% | – | – | 33% | 86% | 110% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | ||
Head 2 Head
LLWWLWWWLW
LLWWWWLWLW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (3-6 6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jakub MensikMensik – Alexander BublikBublik (6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Alexander ZverevZverev (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Gabriel DialloDiallo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Casper RuudRuud (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jack DraperDraper – Tommy PaulPaul (3-2) – H2H and prediction
