Frances Tiafoe and Matteo Arnaldi will face off in the 4^th round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 1:00 pm on ARANTXA SANCHEZ STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Matteo Arnaldi who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Matteo Arnaldi is the pick to win this match.
Matteo Arnaldi -> 1.7
Frances Tiafoe -> 2.15

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Prediction and head to head Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi

This will be the 2^nd time that Frances Tiafoe and Matteo Arnaldi face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Tiafoe (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.

The last time that they locked horns, Tiafoe won 6-7(5) 2-6 6-1 6-3 6-3 in the 1^st round in at the Wimbledon back in 2024.

Frances Tiafoe

Ranked no. 17, the American got to the 4^th round after defeating Luciano Darderi 7-5 3-1 ret. and Alexandre Muller 6-3 6-3.

In the 3^rd round, Tiafoe had a good straight sets win against Muller (6-3 6-3). During the match, Tiafoe scored 69 points vs Muller’s 51. Tiafoe was exceptionally aggressive to blast 27 winners.

Regarding the service games, Tiafoe recorded 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Frances Tiafoe was very efficient on serve to win 87% (27/31) of his 1st serve and 54% (13/24) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The American broke Muller 3 times after converting 30% of his break points (3/10).

Tiafoe has winning win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 57% of his matches (314-233). 6-3 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Tiafoe has an aggregate 68-50 record in the last years on clay.

The American’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Houston.

Francis has a compiled 12-9 win-loss record in 2025, 6-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Matteo Arnaldi

Ranked no. 44, Matteo got to the 4^th round after beating Borna Coric 4-6 6-4 7-5, Novak Djokovic 6-3 6-4 and Damir Dzumhur 6-3 6-4.

In the 3^rd round, Arnaldi had a good straight sets win against Dzumhur (6-3 6-4). During the match Arnaldi scored 78 points vs Dzumhur’s 63. Arnaldi was very aggressive to blast 31 winners.

Talking about serving, Arnaldi managed to score 6 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Matteo Arnaldi was very effective on serve to win 74% (31/42) of his 1st serve and 60% (21/35) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Italian broke Dzumhur twice after converting 50% of his break points (2/4).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Arnaldi has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

Matteo’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in Delray Beach.

The Italian has an overall 11-9 win-loss record in 2025, 3-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Previously, his best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2023. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Tiafoe	Arnaldi
Match played	2	3
Tot Set	5	7
Tot Games	34	70
Pts	126-93	248-223
Total Points	219	471
Winners	52	96
%Winners	41%	39%

Tiafoe played 2 matches while Arnaldi competed in 3 matches. At the moment, Matteo Arnaldi conceded 1 set while Frances Tiafoe hasn’t conceded a set so far. Tiafoe has played 2 set(s) less than Arnaldi (5 vs 7). Therefore, Tiafoe played 36 games less than Arnaldi. Francis scored 52 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Matteo bagged 96 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Tiafoe	Arnaldi
Aces	7	24
Avg per match	3.5	8
1st in	59/93	132/248
%1st in	63%	53%
1st pts	52/59	96/132
%1st pts	88%	73%
2nd pts	20/34	65/116
%2nd pts	59%	56%

Tiafoe fired 7 aces (3.5 per match). Arnaldi blasted 24 aces (8 per match). Tiafoe won 88% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Arnaldi won 73% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Tiafoe	Arnaldi
Won	5	8
Converted	5/15	8/13
% Converted	33%	62%
Conceded	2	18
Saved	2	15
% Saved	100%	83%
Times Broken	0	3

Francis broke his opponents 5 times with a 33% conversion rate. Tiafoe pretty solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 2 break points. The Italian broke his opponents 8 times with a 62% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 83% of the break points that he conceded.

Tiafoe
	R2 Darderi	R3 Muller	Total
Score	7-5 3-1 ret.	6-3 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	16	18	34
pts	57-42	69-51	126-93
Total points	99	120	219
Winners	25	27	52
%Winners	44%	39%	41%
SERVE
Aces	4	3	7
Double Faults	1	2	3
1st in	28/38	31/55	59/93
% 1st in	74%	56%	63%
1st pts	25/28	27/31	52/59
% 1st pts	89%	87%	88%
2nd pts	7/10	13/24	20/34
% 2nd pts	70%	54%	59%
Breaks
Won	2	3	5
Converted	2/5	3/10	5/15
Converted %	40%	30%	33%
Conceded	0	2	2
Saved	0/0	2/2	2
Saved %	–	100%	50%
Times Broken	0	0	0

Arnaldi
	R1 Coric	R2 Djokovic	R3 Dzumhur	Total
Score	4-6 6-4 7-5	6-3 6-4	6-3 6-4
Tot Set	3	2	2	7
Tot Games	32	19	19	70
pts	103-100	67-60	78-63	248-223
Total points	203	127	141	471
Winners	36	29	31	96
%Winners	35%	43%	40%	39%
SERVE
Aces	13	5	6	24
Double Faults	4	0	3	7
1st in	49/97	41/74	42/77	132/248
% 1st in	51%	55%	55%	53%
1st pts	36/49	29/41	31/42	96/132
% 1st pts	73%	71%	74%	73%
2nd pts	27/48	17/33	21/35	65/116
% 2nd pts	56%	52%	60%	56%
Breaks
Won	3	3	2	8
Converted	3/6	3/3	2/4	8/13
Converted %	50%	100%	50%	62%
Conceded	8	5	5	18
Saved	6/8	4/5	5/5	15
Saved %	75%	80%	100%	128%
Times Broken	2	1	0	3

Tennis Scores in Madrid

• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (3-6 6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jakub MensikMensik – Alexander BublikBublik (6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Alexander ZverevZverev (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Gabriel DialloDiallo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Casper RuudRuud (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Frances TiafoeTiafoe – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jack DraperDraper – Tommy PaulPaul (3-2) – H2H and prediction