Jack Draper and Tommy Paul will clash against each other in the 4th round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 4:00 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jack Draper who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jack Draper is the pick to win this match.
Jack Draper -> 1.57
Tommy Paul -> 2.4
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Prediction and head to head Jack Draper vs. Tommy Paul
This will be the 6th time that Jack Draper and Tommy Paul play each other. The head to head is 3-2 for Draper (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.
The last time that they locked horns, Paul won 6-3 5-7 6-4 in the quarter in London back in 2024.
Highlights Tommy Paul vs Jack Draper – London 21-June-2024
Jack Draper
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25-6 | 13-3 | 12-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 39-22 | 19-10 | 5-7 | 7-3 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 34-15 | 15-8 | 3-3 | 16-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 46-19 | 12-6 | 2-2 | 26-7 | 6-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 18-16 | 6-6 | 7-5 | 3-2 | 2-2 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 6 (career-high), Draper got to the 4th round after beating Tallon Griekspoor 6-3 6-4 and Matteo Berrettini 7-6(2) ret..
In the 3rd round against Berrettini, the Brit had a free pass after Berrettini retired on a 7-62 . scoreline.
Draper has a solid win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 69% of his matches (242-108). 3-1 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Draper has an overall27-20 win-loss record in the last 8 years on clay.
His best result of the season was winning the title in Indian Wells where he beat Holger Rune in the final 6-2 6-2.
Jack has an aggregate 16-4 win-loss record in 2025, 3-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Tommy Paul
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24-8 | 10-4 | 11-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-20 | 17-12 | 10-4 | 8-2 | 10-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-29 | 29-13 | 5-6 | 3-5 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-27 | 21-12 | 2-6 | 9-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 12-12 | 9-7 | 12-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 12, the American got to the 4th round after beating Joao Fonseca 7-6(7) 7-6(3) and Karen Khachanov 6-3 3-6 6-2.
In the 3rd round, The American defeated Khachanov (6-3 3-6 6-2). During the match Paul scored 76 points vs Khachanov’s 65. Paul was quite aggressive to blast 39 winners.
Talking about serving, Paul recorded 6 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Tommy Paul lost the serve once and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Paul put 66% of his first serves in, winning 85% (39/46) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (12/24) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Khachanov 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Tommy has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.
Tommy’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in Adelaide, Dallas and Houston.
The American has an aggregate 17-6 win-loss record in 2025, 4-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Draper | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 32 | 52 |
| Pts | 104-83 | 173-159 |
| Total Points | 187 | 332 |
| Winners | 45 | 90 |
| %Winners | 43% | 52% |
Both Draper and Paul played 2 matches. At the moment, Tommy Paul lost 1 set while Jack Draper hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Draper has played 1 set(s) less than Paul (4 vs 5). Therefore, Draper played 20 games less than Paul. Jack scored 45 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Paul fired 90 winners (52%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Draper | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 8 | 15 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 7.5 |
| 1st in | 57/94 | 115/172 |
| %1st in | 61% | 67% |
| 1st pts | 45/57 | 90/115 |
| %1st pts | 79% | 78% |
| 2nd pts | 24/37 | 28/57 |
| %2nd pts | 65% | 49% |
Draper blasted 8 aces (4 per match). Paul managed to score 15 aces (7.5 per match). Draper won 79% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 65% of the points. On the other side, Paul won 78% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 49% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Draper | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 3 | 4 |
| Converted | 3/10 | 4/8 |
| % Converted | 30% | 50% |
| Conceded | 3 | 15 |
| Saved | 2 | 13 |
| % Saved | 67% | 87% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 |
Jack broke his opponents 3 times with a 30% conversion rate. The Brit conceded his serve once and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. Paul broke his opponents 4 times with a 50% conversion rate. Paul conceded his serve twice and he saved 87% of the break points that he conceded.
| Draper | ||||
| R2 Griekspoor |
R3 Berrettini |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 7-62 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 13 | 32 | |
| pts | 58-45 | 46-38 | 104-83 | |
| Total points | 103 | 84 | 187 | |
| Winners | 23 | 22 | 45 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 48% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 5 | 3 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 27/53 | 30/41 | 57/94 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 73% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 23/27 | 22/30 | 45/57 | |
| % 1st pts | 85% | 73% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/26 | 6/11 | 24/37 | |
| % 2nd pts | 69% | 55% | 65% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Converted | 2/4 | 1/6 | 3/10 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 17% | 30% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 1/2 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 50% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Paul | ||||
| R2 Fonseca |
R3 Khachanov |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-67 7-63 | 6-3 3-6 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 26 | 52 | |
| pts | 97-94 | 76-65 | 173-159 | |
| Total points | 191 | 141 | 332 | |
| Winners | 51 | 39 | 90 | |
| %Winners | 53% | 51% | 52% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 9 | 6 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 69/102 | 46/70 | 115/172 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 66% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 51/69 | 39/46 | 90/115 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 85% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/33 | 12/24 | 28/57 | |
| % 2nd pts | 48% | 50% | 49% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Converted | 1/1 | 3/7 | 4/8 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 43% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 11 | 4 | 15 | |
| Saved | 10/11 | 3/4 | 13 | |
| Saved % | 91% | 75% | 83% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWLWWWLWW
WWWLWWWWLW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (3-6 6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jakub MensikMensik – Alexander BublikBublik (6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Alexander ZverevZverev (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Gabriel DialloDiallo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Casper RuudRuud (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jack DraperDraper – Tommy PaulPaul (3-2) – H2H and prediction
