Alexey Vatutin and Francisco Rocha will square off in the qualifications of the Estoril Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 2:30 pm on COURT CASCAIS. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alexey Vatutin who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Alexey Vatutin is the pick to win this match.
Alexey Vatutin -> 1.3
Francisco Rocha -> 3.26
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Prediction and head to head Alexey Vatutin vs. Francisco Rocha
There is no head to head record between Alexey Vatutin and Francisco Rocha since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.
Alexey Vatutin
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23-16 | 0-0 | 16-9 | 7-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 52-32 | 0-2 | 32-16 | 20-14 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 27-27 | 5-7 | 6-8 | 12-11 | 0-0 | 4-1 |
| 2022 | 38-39 | 8-3 | 19-20 | 11-16 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 31-38 | 0-1 | 15-26 | 16-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 333, Vatutin reached the qualifications after beating Marco Cecchinato 6-2 6-1.
In the qualifications, Vatutin had a good straight sets win against Cecchinato (6-2 6-1). During the match, Vatutin scored 60 points vs Cecchinato’s 29. The Russian was extremely aggressive to blast 19 winners.
Regarding the service games, Vatutin recorded 2 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Alexey Vatutin was pretty efficient on serve to win 83% (19/23) of his 1st serve and 57% (8/14) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Alexey broke Cecchinato 6 times after converting 60% of his break points (6/10).
Vatutin has winning record in the last 10 years having won 54% of his matches (342-290). 5-2 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Vatutin has a compiled 173-140 match record in the last years on clay.
Vatutin has an overall 12-9 win-loss record in 2025, 5-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Estoril Challenger
Alexey has never competed in this tournament before.
Francisco Rocha
8 - 10win/loss
701
681
LWWLWWLWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14-14 | 7-8 | 7-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 28-30 | 19-15 | 9-13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 11-13 | 10-9 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 10-7 | 10-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-7 | 9-5 | 0-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 709, Rocha reached the qualifications after beating Beibit Zhukayev 6-4 1-6 7-6(6).
In the qualifications, Francisco defeated Zhukayev (6-4 1-6 7-66).During the match Rocha scored less points (6) than Zhukayev. In fact, the world no. 333 won 100 points vs Zhukayev’s. That means that Rocha was more focused during the important points. Francisco was pretty aggressive to blast 42 winners.
About the serving games, Rocha scored 5 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Francisco Rocha lost the serve twice and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Rocha put 59% of his first serves in, winning 68% (42/62) of the points behind his 1st serve and 60% (26/43) on the 2nd serve. The Portuguese broke Zhukayev once after converting 11% of his break points (1/9).
The Portuguese has an overall 8-9 win-loss record in 2025, 1-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Vatutin | Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 15 | 30 |
| Pts | 60-29 | 100-106 |
| Total Points | 89 | 206 |
| Winners | 19 | 42 |
| %Winners | 32% | 42% |
Both Vatutin and Rocha played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.At the moment, Francisco Rocha dropped 1 set while Alexey Vatutin hasn’t conceded a set so far. Vatutin has played 1 set(s) less than Rocha (2 vs 3). Therefore, Vatutin played 15 games less than Rocha. Vatutin scored 19 winners (32% of the total points). On the other side, Rocha blasted 42 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Vatutin | Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 2 | 5 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 5 |
| 1st in | 23/37 | 62/105 |
| %1st in | 62% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 19/23 | 42/62 |
| %1st pts | 83% | 68% |
| 2nd pts | 8/14 | 26/43 |
| %2nd pts | 57% | 60% |
Vatutin recorded 2 aces . Rocha made 5 aces . Vatutin won 83% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Rocha won 68% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Vatutin | Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 1 |
| Converted | 6/10 | 1/9 |
| % Converted | 60% | 11% |
| Conceded | 5 | 5 |
| Saved | 4 | 3 |
| % Saved | 80% | 60% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 |
The Russian broke his opponent 6 times with a 60% conversion rate. Vatutin surrendered his serve once and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded. Rocha broke his opponent once with a 11% conversion rate. Rocha conceded his serve twice and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded.
| Vatutin | |||
| Q1 Cecchinato |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 15 | |
| pts | 60-29 | 60-29 | |
| Total points | 89 | 89 | |
| Winners | 19 | 19 | |
| %Winners | 32% | 32% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 23/37 | 23/37 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 19/23 | 19/23 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/14 | 8/14 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 57% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 6 | 6 | |
| Converted | 6/10 | 6/10 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 60% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 5 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 80% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
| Rocha | |||
| Q1 Zhukayev |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 1-6 7-66 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 30 | |
| pts | 100-106 | 100-106 | |
| Total points | 206 | 206 | |
| Winners | 42 | 42 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 5 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 62/105 | 62/105 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 42/62 | 42/62 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 26/43 | 26/43 | |
| % 2nd pts | 60% | 60% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 1 | 1 | |
| Converted | 1/9 | 1/9 | |
| Converted % | 11% | 11% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 5 | |
| Saved | 3/5 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 60% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
WWLLLLWWLW
LWWLWWLWLW 
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- Jesper De JongDe Jong – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
