Jakub Mensik and Alexander Bublik will clash against each other in the 4th round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 1:00 pm on STADIUM 3. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jakub Mensik who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jakub Mensik is the pick to win this match.
Jakub Mensik -> 1.32
Alexander Bublik -> 3.38
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Prediction and head to head Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Bublik
This will be the 3rd time that Jakub Mensik and Alexander Bublik clash against each other. The head to head is 1-1 for Mensik and Bublik (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they played, Mensik won 6-4 6-4 in the 1st round in Rotterdam back in February 2025.
Highlights Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Bublik – Rotterdam 04-February-2025
Jakub Mensik
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22-10 | 16-6 | 5-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 41-27 | 26-12 | 6-4 | 7-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-23 | 10-6 | 17-11 | 10-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-16 | 18-4 | 17-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| 2021 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 23 (career-high), Jakub got to the 4th round after defeating Ethan Quinn 7-6(4) 6-1 and Ben Shelton 6-1 6-4.
In the 3rd round, Jakub had a good straight sets win against Shelton (6-1 6-4). During the match, Mensik scored 59 points vs Shelton’s 43. The Czech was very aggressive to blast 26 winners.
Talking about the service games, Mensik recorded 5 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Jakub Mensik conceded no breaks for the entire match to put 65% of his first serves in, win 93% (26/28) of the points behind his 1st serve and 40% (6/15) on the 2nd serve. Mensik broke Shelton 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Jakub hasn’t conceded yet a set in this tournament to conquer 56% of the points he played.
Mensik has a solid record in the last 5 years having won 63% of his matches (135-78). 2-1 on clay in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Mensik has an overall43-30 win-loss record in the last 5 years on clay.
His best result of the year was winning the title in Miami where he overcame Novak Djokovic in the final 7-6(4) 7-6(4).
Mensik has an aggregate 19-8 win-loss record in 2025, 2-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Alexander Bublik
12 - 12win/loss
62
17
LWWWWWLWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18-15 | 5-7 | 11-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 25-25 | 10-11 | 5-6 | 6-4 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 28-30 | 3-12 | 7-9 | 9-7 | 9-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-27 | 5-8 | 2-6 | 17-8 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 35-30 | 14-12 | 4-6 | 10-8 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 75, Bublik reached the 4th round after defeating Alex Michelsen 7-6(2) 7-6(4), Alexei Popyrin 6-4 7-6(4) and Andrey Rublev 6-4 0-6 6-4.
In the 3rd round, Bublik defeated Rublev (6-4 0-6 6-4).During the match Bublik scored less points (8) than Rublev. In fact, the world no. 23 won 65 points vs Rublev’s. That means that Bublik was more focused during the important points. Bublik was exceptionally aggressive to blast 29 winners.
About the serving games, Bublik bagged 12 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Overall, Alexander Bublik was very efficient on serve to win 76% (29/38) of his 1st serve and 55% (18/33) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve 3 times. The Kazakhstani broke Rublev twice after converting 33% of his break points (2/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Alexander has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 50% of the points he played.
The Kazakhstani’s best result of the season was reaching the final in the Phoenix Challenger.
The Kazakhstani has a compiled 12-12 win-loss record in 2025, 5-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Mensik | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 37 | 75 |
| Pts | 125-100 | 241-237 |
| Total Points | 225 | 478 |
| Winners | 59 | 107 |
| %Winners | 47% | 44% |
Mensik played 2 matches while Bublik competed in 3 matches. At the moment, Alexander Bublik conceded 1 set while Jakub Mensik hasn’t conceded a set so far. Mensik has played 3 set(s) less than Bublik (4 vs 7). Therefore, Mensik played 38 games less than Bublik. Mensik scored 59 winners (47% of the total points). On the other side, Alexander scored 107 winners (44%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Mensik | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 19 | 33 |
| Avg per match | 9.5 | 11 |
| 1st in | 72/109 | 141/241 |
| %1st in | 66% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 59/72 | 107/141 |
| %1st pts | 82% | 76% |
| 2nd pts | 14/37 | 55/100 |
| %2nd pts | 38% | 55% |
Mensik struck 19 aces (9.5 per match). Bublik struck 33 aces (11 per match). Mensik won 82% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 38% of the points. On the other side, Bublik won 76% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Mensik | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 5 |
| Converted | 8/16 | 5/21 |
| % Converted | 50% | 24% |
| Conceded | 3 | 20 |
| Saved | 1 | 15 |
| % Saved | 33% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 5 |
The Czech broke his opponents 8 times with a 50% conversion rate. Mensik lost his serve twice and he saved 33% of the break points that he conceded. The Kazakhstani broke his opponents 5 times with a 24% conversion rate. Bublik conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Mensik | ||||
| R2 Quinn |
R3 Shelton |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-64 6-1 | 6-1 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 17 | 37 | |
| pts | 66-57 | 59-43 | 125-100 | |
| Total points | 123 | 102 | 225 | |
| Winners | 33 | 26 | 59 | |
| %Winners | 50% | 44% | 47% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 14 | 5 | 19 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 2 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 44/66 | 28/43 | 72/109 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 65% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 33/44 | 26/28 | 59/72 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 93% | 82% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/22 | 6/15 | 14/37 | |
| % 2nd pts | 36% | 40% | 38% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 4/9 | 8/16 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 44% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Saved | 1/3 | 0/0 | 1 | |
| Saved % | 33% | – | 17% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Bublik | |||||
| R1 Michelsen |
R2 Popyrin |
R3 Rublev |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-62 7-64 | 6-4 7-64 | 6-4 0-6 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 23 | 26 | 75 | |
| pts | 93-86 | 83-78 | 65-73 | 241-237 | |
| Total points | 179 | 161 | 138 | 478 | |
| Winners | 44 | 34 | 29 | 107 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 41% | 45% | 44% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 11 | 10 | 12 | 33 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14 | |
| 1st in | 61/93 | 42/77 | 38/71 | 141/241 | |
| % 1st in | 66% | 55% | 54% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 44/61 | 34/42 | 29/38 | 107/141 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 81% | 76% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/32 | 18/35 | 18/33 | 55/100 | |
| % 2nd pts | 59% | 51% | 55% | 55% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | |
| Converted | 1/8 | 2/7 | 2/6 | 5/21 | |
| Converted % | 13% | 29% | 33% | 24% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 6 | 5 | 20 | |
| Saved | 8/9 | 5/6 | 2/5 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 89% | 83% | 40% | 106% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLWWWLWW
LWWWWWLWLW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Damir DzumhurDzumhur (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (2-6 7-63 7-60) – See score progression
- Taylor FritzFritz – Benjamin BonziBonzi (4-6 7-5 ret.) – See score progression
- Alexander BublikBublik – Andrey RublevRublev (6-4 0-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Flavio CobolliCobolli (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Jakub MensikMensik – Ben SheltonShelton (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Francisco ComesanaComesana (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Damir DzumhurDzumhur (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Jacob FearnleyFearnley (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Tommy PaulPaul (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Gabriel DialloDiallo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Casper RuudRuud (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Alexandre MullerMuller (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (5-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (4-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jack DraperDraper – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (2-0) – H2H and prediction
