Daniil Medvedev and Brandon Nakashima will square off in the 4^th round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 7:00 pm on ARANTXA SANCHEZ STADIUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Daniil Medvedev is the pick to win this match.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.41
Brandon Nakashima -> 2.91

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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Brandon Nakashima

This will be the 2^nd time that Daniil Medvedev and Brandon Nakashima square off. The head to head is 1-0 for Medvedev (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.

The last time that they played each other, Medvedev won 6-4 6-3 in the 2^nd round in Indian wells back in 2023.

Highlights Daniil Medvedev vs Brandon Nakashima – Indian wells 10-March-2023

Daniil Medvedev

Ranked no. 10, the Russian reached the 4^th round after beating Laslo Djere w/o and Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6-2 6-2.

In the 3^rd round, Daniil had a good straight sets win against Manuel Cerundolo (6-2 6-2). During the match, Medvedev scored 55 points vs Manuel Cerundolo’s 32. The Russian was extremely aggressive to blast 22 winners.

Talking about the service games, Medvedev struck 2 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Daniil Medvedev was very effective on serve to win 76% (22/29) of his 1st serve and 69% (11/16) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Russian broke Manuel Cerundolo 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).

Medvedev has a superlative win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 71% of his matches (472-190). 3-1 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Medvedev has an overall 54-37 match record in the last years on clay.

Daniil’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in Marseille and Indian Wells.

The Russian has a compiled 15-8 win-loss record in 2025, 3-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Brandon Nakashima

Ranked no. 32, Nakashima reached the 4^th round after defeating Sebastian Ofner 6-3 7-6(3) and Flavio Cobolli 7-5 6-3.

In the 3^rd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Cobolli (7-5 6-3). During the match Nakashima scored 75 points vs Cobolli’s 60. The American was exceptionally aggressive to blast 35 winners.

About the serving games, Nakashima scored 4 aces and he was extremely steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Overall, Brandon Nakashima was pretty efficient on serve to win 74% (35/47) of his 1st serve and 58% (11/19) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The American broke Cobolli 3 times after converting 38% of his break points (3/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

The American’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Acapulco and Houston.

The American has an aggregate 14-11 win-loss record in 2025, 4-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Previously, his best result was reaching the 1^st round in 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Medvedev	Nakashima
Match played	1	2
Tot Set	2	4
Tot Games	16	43
Pts	55-32	147-123
Total Points	87	270
Winners	22	76
%Winners	40%	52%

Medvedev played 1 match while Nakashima competed in 2 matches. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Medvedev has played 2 set(s) less than Nakashima (2 vs 4). Therefore, Medvedev played 27 games less than Nakashima. The Russian scored 22 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Nakashima made 76 winners (52%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Medvedev	Nakashima
Aces	2	19
Avg per match	2	9.5
1st in	29/45	96/139
%1st in	64%	69%
1st pts	22/29	76/96
%1st pts	76%	79%
2nd pts	11/16	21/43
%2nd pts	69%	49%

Medvedev recorded 2 aces . Nakashima managed to score 19 aces (9.5 per match). Medvedev won 76% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 69% of the points. On the other side, Nakashima won 79% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 49% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Medvedev	Nakashima
Won	4	4
Converted	4/5	4/9
% Converted	80%	44%
Conceded	1	5
Saved	1	4
% Saved	100%	80%
Times Broken	0	1

The Russian broke his opponent 4 times with a 80% conversion rate. The Russian pretty effective on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 1 break points. The American broke his opponents 4 times with a 44% conversion rate. Brandon conceded his serve once and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded.

Medvedev
	R2 Djere	R3 Manuel	Total
Score	w/o	6-2 6-2
Tot Set	–	2	2
Tot Games	–	16	16
pts	–	55-32	55-32
Total points	–	87	87
Winners	–	22	22
%Winners	–	40%	40%
SERVE
Aces	–	2	2
Double Faults	–	2	2
1st in	–	29/45	29/45
% 1st in	–	64%	64%
1st pts	–	22/29	22/29
% 1st pts	–	76%	76%
2nd pts	–	11/16	11/16
% 2nd pts	–	69%	69%
Breaks
Won	–	4	4
Converted	–	4/5	4/5
Converted %	–	80%	80%
Conceded	–	1	1
Saved	–	1/1	1
Saved %	–	100%	50%
Times Broken	–	0	0

Nakashima
	R2 Ofner	R3 Cobolli	Total
Score	6-3 7-63	7-5 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	22	21	43
pts	72-63	75-60	147-123
Total points	135	135	270
Winners	41	35	76
%Winners	57%	47%	52%
SERVE
Aces	15	4	19
Double Faults	2	0	2
1st in	49/73	47/66	96/139
% 1st in	67%	71%	69%
1st pts	41/49	35/47	76/96
% 1st pts	84%	74%	79%
2nd pts	10/24	11/19	21/43
% 2nd pts	42%	58%	49%
Breaks
Won	1	3	4
Converted	1/1	3/8	4/9
Converted %	100%	38%	44%
Conceded	1	4	5
Saved	1/1	3/4	4
Saved %	100%	75%	88%
Times Broken	0	1	1

Tennis Scores in Madrid

• Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Damir DzumhurDzumhur (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (2-6 7-6³ 7-6⁰) – See score progression
• Taylor FritzFritz – Benjamin BonziBonzi (4-6 7-5 ret.) – See score progression
• Alexander BublikBublik – Andrey RublevRublev (6-4 0-6 6-4) – See score progression
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Flavio CobolliCobolli (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Jakub MensikMensik – Ben SheltonShelton (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
• Casper RuudRuud – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Francisco ComesanaComesana (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Damir DzumhurDzumhur (6-3 6-4) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Jacob FearnleyFearnley (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Tommy PaulPaul (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Cameron NorrieNorrie – Gabriel DialloDiallo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Casper RuudRuud (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Alexandre MullerMuller (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (5-1) – H2H and prediction
• Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (4-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jack DraperDraper – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (2-0) – H2H and prediction