Elina Svitolina and Maria Sakkari will face off in the 4th round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 3:00 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Elina Svitolina who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Elina Svitolina is the pick to win this match.
Elina Svitolina -> 1.41
Maria Sakkari -> 2.91
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Prediction and head to head Elina Svitolina vs. Maria Sakkari
This will be the 5th time that Elina Svitolina and Maria Sakkari square off. The head to head is 2-2 for Svitolina and Sakkari (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they played, Svitolina won 5-7 6-3 6-4 in the 3rd round in Tokyo back in 2021.
Elina Svitolina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22-7 | 11-5 | 11-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 30-18 | 16-9 | 10-7 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 21-12 | 4-3 | 12-7 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 5-8 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 41-20 | 31-13 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 17, Svitolina got to the 4th round after defeating Sonay Kartal 6-3 6-1 and Elena Rybakina 6-3 6-4.
In the 3rd round, The Ukrainian had a good straight sets win against Rybakina (6-3 6-4). During the match, Svitolina scored 71 points vs Rybakina ‘s 57. Svitolina was pretty aggressive to blast 34 winners.
Regarding the service games, Svitolina made 2 aces and she was pretty solid in conceding no double faults. Elina Svitolina was pretty efficient on serve to win 76% (34/45) of her 1st serve and 58% (14/24) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Svitolina broke Rybakina twice after converting 50% of her break points (2/4).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Ukrainian hasn’t dropped yet a set in this tournament to conquer 58% of the points she played.
Svitolina has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 68% of her matches (315-146). 9-0 on clay in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Svitolina has a compiled 78-33 record in the last years on clay.
Her best result of the season was winning the title in Rouen where she overcame Olga Danilovic in the final 6-4 7-6(8).
Svitolina has an overall 20-6 win-loss record in 2025, 9-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Maria Sakkari
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10-14 | 5-10 | 4-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 25-17 | 12-8 | 11-6 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 38-25 | 26-17 | 5-4 | 3-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-23 | 21-12 | 8-5 | 4-2 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-20 | 23-13 | 9-4 | 5-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 82, Sakkari got to the 4th round after beating Xinyu Wang 6-4 7-6(7), Magda Linette 7-6(5) 6-3 and Jasmine Paolini 6-2 6-1.
In the 3rd round, Sakkari had a good straight sets win against Paolini (6-2 6-1). During the match Sakkari scored 70 points vs Paolini’s 43. Sakkari was pretty aggressive to blast 21 winners.
About the serving games, Sakkari managed to score 6 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Maria Sakkari lost the serve once and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Sakkari put 61% of her first serves in, winning 64% (21/33) of the points behind her 1st serve and 67% (14/21) on the 2nd serve. The Greek broke Paolini 6 times after converting 46% of her break points (6/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Greek hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 56% of the points she played.
Sakkari has a compiled 10-13 win-loss record in 2025, 4-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Svitolina | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 35 | 60 |
| Pts | 124-88 | 237-189 |
| Total Points | 212 | 426 |
| Winners | 52 | 84 |
| %Winners | 42% | 35% |
Svitolina played 2 matches while Sakkari competed in 3 matches. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Svitolina has played 2 set(s) less than Sakkari (4 vs 6). Therefore, Svitolina played 25 games less than Sakkari. The Ukrainian scored 52 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Sakkari recorded 84 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Svitolina | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 2 | 9 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 3 |
| 1st in | 72/111 | 115/195 |
| %1st in | 65% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 52/72 | 84/115 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 73% |
| 2nd pts | 25/39 | 44/80 |
| %2nd pts | 64% | 55% |
Svitolina made 2 aces (1 per match). Sakkari blasted 9 aces (3 per match). Svitolina won 72% points on her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 64% of the points. On the other side, Sakkari won 73% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Svitolina | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 12 |
| Converted | 7/10 | 12/32 |
| % Converted | 70% | 38% |
| Conceded | 3 | 13 |
| Saved | 2 | 9 |
| % Saved | 67% | 69% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 4 |
Elina broke her opponents 7 times with a 70% conversion rate. The Ukrainian lost her serve once and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded. Sakkari broke her opponents 12 times with a 38% conversion rate. The Greek conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 69% of the break points that she conceded.
| Svitolina | ||||
| R2 Kartal |
R3 Rybakina |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-1 | 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 19 | 35 | |
| pts | 53-31 | 71-57 | 124-88 | |
| Total points | 84 | 128 | 212 | |
| Winners | 18 | 34 | 52 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 48% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 27/42 | 45/69 | 72/111 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 65% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 18/27 | 34/45 | 52/72 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 76% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/15 | 14/24 | 25/39 | |
| % 2nd pts | 73% | 58% | 64% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 2 | 7 | |
| Converted | 5/6 | 2/4 | 7/10 | |
| Converted % | 83% | 50% | 70% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 2/2 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 100% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sakkari | |||||
| R1 Wang |
R2 Linette |
R3 Paolini |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-67 | 7-65 6-3 | 6-2 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 22 | 15 | 60 | |
| pts | 87-83 | 80-63 | 70-43 | 237-189 | |
| Total points | 170 | 143 | 113 | 426 | |
| Winners | 32 | 31 | 21 | 84 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 39% | 30% | 35% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 45/82 | 37/59 | 33/54 | 115/195 | |
| % 1st in | 55% | 63% | 61% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 32/45 | 31/37 | 21/33 | 84/115 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 84% | 64% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/37 | 13/22 | 14/21 | 44/80 | |
| % 2nd pts | 46% | 59% | 67% | 55% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | |
| Converted | 3/10 | 3/9 | 6/13 | 12/32 | |
| Converted % | 30% | 33% | 46% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 1 | 5 | 13 | |
| Saved | 5/7 | 0/1 | 4/5 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 71% | 0% | 80% | 76% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWWWWW
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- Moyuka UchijimaUchijima – Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
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