Marta Kostyuk and Anastasia Potapova will clash against each other in the 4th round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 9:30 pm on ARANTXA SANCHEZ STADIUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Marta Kostyuk who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Marta Kostyuk is the pick to win this match.
Marta Kostyuk -> 1.86
Anastasia Potapova -> 1.94
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Prediction and head to head Marta Kostyuk vs. Anastasia Potapova
This will be the 6th time that Marta Kostyuk and Anastasia Potapova face off. The head to head is 4-1 for Potapova (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they competed against each other, Kostyuk won 6-0 7-5 in the quarter in Indian Wells back in 2024.
Highlights Marta Kostyuk vs Anastasia Potapova – Indian Wells 14-March-2024
Marta Kostyuk
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14-10 | 10-8 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 34-22 | 24-14 | 8-5 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 26-22 | 22-16 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 28-20 | 18-11 | 3-4 | 4-3 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-17 | 8-9 | 10-4 | 3-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 36, Kostyuk got to the 4th round after beating Emma Raducanu 6-4 2-6 6-2 and Veronika Kudermetova 6-0 4-6 6-4.
In the 3rd round, Marta defeated Kudermetova (6-0 4-6 6-4). During the match, Kostyuk scored 103 points vs Kudermetova’s 90. Marta was extremely aggressive to blast 28 winners.
Talking about the service games, Kostyuk scored 2 aces and she committed only 5 double faults. Marta Kostyuk lost the serve 4 times and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Kostyuk put 51% of her first serves in, winning 68% (28/41) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (20/40) on the 2nd serve. The Ukrainian broke Kudermetova 7 times after converting 47% of her break points (7/15).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Marta has dropped 2 set in this competition to win 52% of the points she played.
Kostyuk has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 62% of her matches (231-139). 3-1 on clay in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Kostyuk has an overall 75-38 match record in the last years on clay.
Marta has a compiled 13-9 win-loss record in 2025, 3-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Anastasia Potapova
16 - 6win/loss
34
21
LWWWWLLWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16-7 | 5-5 | 4-1 | 7-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 28-22 | 17-13 | 6-5 | 2-1 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 30-21 | 11-14 | 7-4 | 7-1 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 35-24 | 14-14 | 18-7 | 3-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 21-23 | 11-11 | 3-5 | 5-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 39, Potapova reached the 4th round after defeating Ashlyn Krueger 6-7(7) 6-4 6-2, Qinwen Zheng 6-4 6-4 and Sofia Kenin 3-6 6-4 7-6(6).
In the 3rd round against Kenin, Anastasia recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-4 7-66).During the match Potapova scored less points (1) than Kenin. In fact, the world no. 36 won 106 points vs Kenin’s. That means that Potapova was more focused during the important points. The Russian was pretty aggressive to blast 28 winners.
Talking about serving, Potapova blasted 6 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Anastasia Potapova lost the serve 5 times and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Potapova put 47% of her first serves in, winning 60% (28/47) of the points behind her 1st serve and 55% (29/53) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Kenin 4 times after converting 44% of her break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Anastasia has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Napoca where she overcame Lucia Bronzetti in the final 4-6 6-1 6-2.
Anastasia has an aggregate 16-6 win-loss record in 2025, 4-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Kostyuk | Potapova |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 52 | 83 |
| Pts | 187-175 | 280-249 |
| Total Points | 362 | 529 |
| Winners | 52 | 92 |
| %Winners | 28% | 33% |
Kostyuk played 2 matches while Potapova competed in 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Marta Kostyuk surrendered 2 sets, while Anastasia Potapova lost 2 sets. Kostyuk has played 2 set(s) less than Potapova (6 vs 8). Therefore, Kostyuk played 31 games less than Potapova. The Ukrainian scored 52 winners (28% of the total points). On the other side, Potapova made 92 winners (33%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Kostyuk | Potapova |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 3 | 8 |
| Avg per match | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| 1st in | 80/158 | 144/264 |
| %1st in | 51% | 55% |
| 1st pts | 52/80 | 92/144 |
| %1st pts | 65% | 64% |
| 2nd pts | 37/78 | 63/120 |
| %2nd pts | 47% | 53% |
Kostyuk fired 3 aces (1.5 per match). Potapova struck 8 aces (2.7 per match). Kostyuk won 65% points on her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Potapova won 64% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Kostyuk | Potapova |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 13 | 16 |
| Converted | 13/31 | 16/30 |
| % Converted | 42% | 53% |
| Conceded | 16 | 21 |
| Saved | 7 | 9 |
| % Saved | 44% | 43% |
| Times Broken | 9 | 12 |
The Ukrainian broke her opponents 13 times with a 42% conversion rate. Kostyuk dropped her serve 9 times and she saved 44% of the break points that she conceded. Potapova broke her opponents 16 times with a 53% conversion rate. Anastasia conceded her serve 12 times and she saved 43% of the break points that she conceded.
| Kostyuk | ||||
| R2 Raducanu |
R3 Kudermetova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 2-6 6-2 | 6-0 4-6 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 26 | 52 | |
| pts | 84-85 | 103-90 | 187-175 | |
| Total points | 169 | 193 | 362 | |
| Winners | 24 | 28 | 52 | |
| %Winners | 29% | 27% | 28% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 9 | 5 | 14 | |
| 1st in | 39/77 | 41/81 | 80/158 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 51% | 51% | |
| 1st pts | 24/39 | 28/41 | 52/80 | |
| % 1st pts | 62% | 68% | 65% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/38 | 20/40 | 37/78 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | 50% | 47% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 6 | 7 | 13 | |
| Converted | 6/16 | 7/15 | 13/31 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 47% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 9 | 16 | |
| Saved | 2/7 | 5/9 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 29% | 56% | 43% | |
| Times Broken | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
| Potapova | |||||
| R1 Krueger |
R2 Zheng |
R3 Kenin |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-77 6-4 6-2 | 6-4 6-4 | 3-6 6-4 7-66 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 20 | 32 | 83 | |
| pts | 106-88 | 68-54 | 106-107 | 280-249 | |
| Total points | 194 | 122 | 213 | 529 | |
| Winners | 38 | 26 | 28 | 92 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 38% | 26% | 33% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 | |
| 1st in | 58/104 | 39/60 | 47/100 | 144/264 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 65% | 47% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 38/58 | 26/39 | 28/47 | 92/144 | |
| % 1st pts | 66% | 67% | 60% | 64% | |
| 2nd pts | 24/46 | 10/21 | 29/53 | 63/120 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 48% | 55% | 53% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 7 | 5 | 4 | 16 | |
| Converted | 7/12 | 5/9 | 4/9 | 16/30 | |
| Converted % | 58% | 56% | 44% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 4 | 9 | 21 | |
| Saved | 4/8 | 1/4 | 4/9 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 25% | 44% | 60% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWLWLWWL
LWWWWLLWLW Tennis Scores in Madrid
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Peyton StearnsStearns (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (1-4) – H2H and prediction
- Moyuka UchijimaUchijima – Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Maria SakkariSakkari (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – Donna VekicVekic (3-1) – H2H and prediction
