Aryna Sabalenka and Peyton Stearns will square off in the 4th round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 8:00 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.112
Peyton Stearns -> 6.5
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Peyton Stearns
This will be the 2nd time that Aryna Sabalenka and Peyton Stearns face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they played, Sabalenka won 6-7(2) 6-2 7-6(6) in the 2nd round in Indian Wells back in 2024.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns – Indian Wells 09-March-2024
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 27-5 | 23-4 | 4-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Aryna reached the 4th round after beating Anna Blinkova 6-3 6-4 and Elise Mertens 3-6 6-2 6-1.
In the 3rd round against Mertens, Sabalenka recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-2 6-1). During the match, Sabalenka scored 86 points vs Mertens’s 67. Aryna was extremely aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka fired 6 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 4 times and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 57% of her first serves in, winning 66% (29/44) of the points behind her 1st serve and 45% (15/33) on the 2nd serve. Sabalenka broke Mertens 7 times after converting 64% of her break points (7/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aryna has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a good record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (401-173). 4-1 on clay in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has an overall 81-40 record in the last years on clay.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Brisbane where she defeated Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2 and in Miami where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 6-2.
Sabalenka has an overall 27-5 win-loss record in 2025, 4-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Peyton Stearns
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11-10 | 7-8 | 3-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 25-23 | 13-15 | 11-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 45-23 | 19-13 | 19-7 | 6-1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-15 | 29-12 | 1-2 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 8-9 | 8-7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 44, Stearns got to the 4th round after beating Kimberly Birrell 5-7 6-3 6-4, Amanda Anisimova 6-2 2-6 7-5 and Rebeka Masarova 6-2 6-0.
In the 3rd round, Stearns had a good straight sets win against Masarova (6-2 6-0). During the match Stearns scored 55 points vs Masarova’s 31. Peyton was quite aggressive to blast 17 winners.
About the serving games, Stearns scored just 1 ace during the entire match and she committed only 3 double faults. Peyton Stearns lost the serve once. Furthermore, Stearns put 62% of her first serves in, winning 65% (17/26) of the points behind her 1st serve and 63% (10/16) on the 2nd serve. Peyton broke Masarova 6 times after converting 67% of her break points (6/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.
The American has a compiled 11-10 win-loss record in 2025, 3-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the 1st round in 2024. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 43 | 73 |
| Pts | 164-136 | 264-222 |
| Total Points | 300 | 486 |
| Winners | 56 | 101 |
| %Winners | 34% | 38% |
Sabalenka played 2 matches while Stearns competed in 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka conceded 1 set, while Peyton Stearns dropped 2 sets. Sabalenka has played 3 set(s) less than Stearns (5 vs 8). Therefore, Sabalenka played 30 games less than Stearns. The Belarussian scored 56 winners (34% of the total points). On the other side, Peyton scored 101 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 7 | 10 |
| Avg per match | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| 1st in | 80/149 | 164/242 |
| %1st in | 54% | 68% |
| 1st pts | 56/80 | 101/164 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 62% |
| 2nd pts | 33/69 | 35/78 |
| %2nd pts | 48% | 45% |
Sabalenka recorded 7 aces (3.5 per match). Stearns fired 10 aces (3.3 per match). Sabalenka won 70% points on her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 48% of the points. On the other side, Stearns won 62% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 45% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 10 | 19 |
| Converted | 10/18 | 19/40 |
| % Converted | 56% | 48% |
| Conceded | 15 | 27 |
| Saved | 10 | 15 |
| % Saved | 67% | 56% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 12 |
The Belarussian broke her opponents 10 times with a 56% conversion rate. Aryna lost her serve 5 times and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded. The American broke her opponents 19 times with a 48% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 12 times and she saved 56% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||
| R2 Blinkova |
R3 Mertens |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 3-6 6-2 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 24 | 43 | |
| pts | 78-69 | 86-67 | 164-136 | |
| Total points | 147 | 153 | 300 | |
| Winners | 27 | 29 | 56 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 34% | 34% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 1 | 6 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 36/72 | 44/77 | 80/149 | |
| % 1st in | 50% | 57% | 54% | |
| 1st pts | 27/36 | 29/44 | 56/80 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 66% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/36 | 15/33 | 33/69 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 45% | 48% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 7 | 10 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 7/11 | 10/18 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 64% | 56% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 8 | 15 | |
| Saved | 6/7 | 4/8 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 86% | 50% | 68% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| Stearns | |||||
| R1 Birrell |
R2 Anisimova |
R3 Masarova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 5-7 6-3 6-4 | 6-2 2-6 7-5 | 6-2 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 28 | 14 | 73 | |
| pts | 108-96 | 101-95 | 55-31 | 264-222 | |
| Total points | 204 | 196 | 86 | 486 | |
| Winners | 48 | 36 | 17 | 101 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 36% | 31% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 3 | 6 | 1 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 6 | 3 | 15 | |
| 1st in | 79/103 | 59/97 | 26/42 | 164/242 | |
| % 1st in | 77% | 61% | 62% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 48/79 | 36/59 | 17/26 | 101/164 | |
| % 1st pts | 61% | 61% | 65% | 62% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/24 | 14/38 | 10/16 | 35/78 | |
| % 2nd pts | 46% | 37% | 63% | 45% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 6 | 7 | 6 | 19 | |
| Converted | 6/13 | 7/18 | 6/9 | 19/40 | |
| Converted % | 46% | 39% | 67% | 48% | |
| Conceded | 12 | 14 | 1 | 27 | |
| Saved | 7/12 | 8/14 | 0/1 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 58% | 57% | 0% | 58% | |
| Times Broken | 5 | 6 | 1 | 12 | |
Head 2 Head
WWLWWWWWWW
WWWLLWLLLW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Cori GauffGauff – Belinda BencicBencic (6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Yuliia StarodubtsevaStarodubtseva (6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Peyton StearnsStearns (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (1-4) – H2H and prediction
- Moyuka UchijimaUchijima – Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Maria SakkariSakkari (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – Donna VekicVekic (3-1) – H2H and prediction
