Iga Swiatek and Diana Shnaider will face off in the 4th round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 11:00 am on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.177
Diana Shnaider -> 4.9
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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Diana Shnaider
There is no head to head record between Iga Swiatek and Diana Shnaider since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.
Iga Swiatek
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 64-17 | 40-10 | 11-4 | 3-2 | 10-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 64-9 | 29-5 | 26-2 | 7-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 68-11 | 42-8 | 19-2 | 0-0 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 67-9 | 42-6 | 18-1 | 5-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-15 | 18-10 | 12-2 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, Swiatek got to the 4th round after beating Alexandra Eala 4-6 6-4 6-2 and Linda Noskova 6-4 6-2.
In the 3rd round, Iga had a good straight sets win against Noskova (6-4 6-2). During the match, Swiatek scored 58 points vs Noskova’s 45. Swiatek was pretty aggressive to blast 27 winners.
Talking about the service games, Swiatek recorded 4 aces and she was extremely steady in conceding no double faults. Iga Swiatek lost the serve once and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Swiatek put 61% of her first serves in, winning 75% (27/36) of the points behind her 1st serve and 48% (11/23) on the 2nd serve. Iga was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Noskova 4 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Iga has dropped 1 set in this event to conquer 56% of the points she played.
Swiatek has a great record in the last 10 years having won 82% of her matches (373-83). 3-1 on clay in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Swiatek has a composed 140-19 record in the last years on clay.
Swiatek’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Australia.
The Pole has a composed 24-7 win-loss record in 2025, 3-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Diana Shnaider
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 28-25 | 16-16 | 8-5 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 55-23 | 31-15 | 15-5 | 0-0 | 9-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 25-22 | 14-13 | 10-8 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 58-17 | 11-4 | 46-11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 9-3 | 0-0 | 8-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 13, the Russian reached the 4th round after beating Katie Volynets 6-1 6-2 and Anastasija Sevastova 6-0 6-0.
In the 3rd round, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Sevastova (6-0 6-0). During the match Shnaider scored 51 points vs Sevastova’s 19. Shnaider was quite aggressive to blast 21 winners.
About the serving games, Shnaider was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 2 double faults. Diana Shnaider was extremely efficient on serve to win 78% (21/27) of her 1st serve and 56% (5/9) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Russian broke Sevastova 6 times after converting 86% of her break points (6/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Diana hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 67% of the points she played.
The Russian has an aggregate 11-10 win-loss record in 2025, 4-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the 1st round in 2024. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Swiatek | Shnaider |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 46 | 27 |
| Pts | 158-125 | 113-55 |
| Total Points | 283 | 168 |
| Winners | 57 | 49 |
| %Winners | 36% | 43% |
Both Swiatek and Shnaider played 2 matches. At the moment, Iga Swiatek surrendered 1 set while Diana Shnaider hasn’t dropped a set so far. Swiatek has played 1 set more than Shnaider (5 vs 4). Therefore, Swiatek played 19 games more than Shnaider. Swiatek scored 57 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Shnaider scored 49 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Swiatek | Shnaider |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 10 | 0 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 0 |
| 1st in | 83/139 | 65/87 |
| %1st in | 60% | 75% |
| 1st pts | 57/83 | 49/65 |
| %1st pts | 69% | 75% |
| 2nd pts | 29/56 | 14/22 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 64% |
Swiatek bagged 10 aces (5 per match). Shnaider didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Swiatek won 69% points behind her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Shnaider won 75% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 64% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Swiatek | Shnaider |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 11 | 10 |
| Converted | 11/20 | 10/12 |
| % Converted | 55% | 83% |
| Conceded | 14 | 6 |
| Saved | 8 | 6 |
| % Saved | 57% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 0 |
Swiatek broke her opponents 11 times with a 55% conversion rate. Swiatek lost her serve 6 times and she saved 57% of the break points that she conceded. Diana broke her opponents 10 times with a 83% conversion rate. Shnaider was rock solid on her serve as she has never conceded a single service game after saving 6 break points.
| Swiatek | ||||
| R2 Eala | R3 Noskova | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-4 6-2 | 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 18 | 46 | |
| pts | 100-80 | 58-45 | 158-125 | |
| Total points | 180 | 103 | 283 | |
| Winners | 30 | 27 | 57 | |
| %Winners | 30% | 47% | 36% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 6 | 4 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 47/80 | 36/59 | 83/139 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 61% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 30/47 | 27/36 | 57/83 | |
| % 1st pts | 64% | 75% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/33 | 11/23 | 29/56 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 48% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 7 | 4 | 11 | |
| Converted | 7/16 | 4/4 | 11/20 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 100% | 55% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 4 | 14 | |
| Saved | 5/10 | 3/4 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 75% | 63% | |
| Times Broken | 5 | 1 | 6 | |
| Shnaider | ||||
| R2 Volynets | R3 Sevastova | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-2 | 6-0 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 12 | 27 | |
| pts | 62-36 | 51-19 | 113-55 | |
| Total points | 98 | 70 | 168 | |
| Winners | 28 | 21 | 49 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 41% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 38/51 | 27/36 | 65/87 | |
| % 1st in | 75% | 75% | 75% | |
| 1st pts | 28/38 | 21/27 | 49/65 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 78% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/13 | 5/9 | 14/22 | |
| % 2nd pts | 69% | 56% | 64% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 6 | 10 | |
| Converted | 4/5 | 6/7 | 10/12 | |
| Converted % | 80% | 86% | 83% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 2 | 6 | |
| Saved | 4/4 | 2/2 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Cori GauffGauff – Belinda BencicBencic (6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Yuliia StarodubtsevaStarodubtseva (6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Peyton StearnsStearns (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (1-4) – H2H and prediction
- Moyuka UchijimaUchijima – Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Maria SakkariSakkari (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – Donna VekicVekic (3-1) – H2H and prediction