Madison Keys and Donna Vekic will fight against each other in the 4th round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 1:00 pm on ARANTXA SANCHEZ STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.29
Donna Vekic -> 3.6
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Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Donna Vekic
This will be the 5th time that Madison Keys and Donna Vekic clash against each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Keys (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on clay.
The last time that they competed against each other, Keys won 4-6 7-6(7) 6-3 in the 4th round in Indian Wells back in March 2025.
Highlights Madison Keys vs Donna Vekic – Indian Wells 12-March-2025
Madison Keys
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23-5 | 19-3 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5 (career-high), the American got to the 4th round after beating Lucia Bronzetti 6-4 6-3 and Anna Kalinskaya 7-5 7-6(3).
In the 3rd round, Madison had a good straight sets win against Kalinskaya (7-5 7-63). During the match, Keys scored 87 points vs Kalinskaya’s 78. Keys was extremely aggressive to blast 41 winners.
Talking about the service games, Keys managed to score 4 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Madison Keys lost the serve 3 times and she saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 69% of her first serves in, winning 62% (41/66) of the points behind her 1st serve and 53% (16/30) on the 2nd serve. The American was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Kalinskaya 4 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Keys hasn’t dropped yet a set in this competition to win 54% of the points she played.
Keys has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (249-127). 3-1 on clay in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Keys has an overall 61-32 win-loss record in the last years on clay.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Adelaide where she beat Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 4-6 6-1 and at the Australian Open where she overcame Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-3 2-6 7-5.
Keys has a compiled 22-4 win-loss record in 2025, 3-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Donna Vekic
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7-11 | 5-9 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 32-20 | 12-10 | 8-5 | 2-1 | 10-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 29-20 | 16-9 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 28-20 | 10-9 | 9-6 | 2-1 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 19-16 | 10-12 | 0-1 | 5-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 21, Donna reached the 4th round after beating Hailey Baptiste 6-4 6-3 and Emma Navarro 4-6 6-3 6-2.
In the 3rd round against Navarro, Donna recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-3 6-2). During the match Vekic scored 88 points vs Navarro’s 83. Vekic was very aggressive to blast 46 winners.
Talking about serving, Vekic made 6 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Donna Vekic lost the serve once and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Vekic put 64% of her first serves in, winning 73% (46/63) of the points behind her 1st serve and 47% (17/36) on the 2nd serve. Donna broke Navarro 3 times after converting 43% of her break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Donna has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points she played.
Vekic has a compiled 7-10 win-loss record in 2025, 2-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2019. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Keys | Vekic |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 44 | 46 |
| Pts | 151-127 | 156-142 |
| Total Points | 278 | 298 |
| Winners | 62 | 70 |
| %Winners | 41% | 45% |
Both Keys and Vekic played 2 matches. At the moment, Donna Vekic dropped 1 set while Madison Keys hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Keys has played 1 set(s) less than Vekic (4 vs 5). Therefore, Keys played 2 games less than Vekic. Keys scored 62 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, The Croatian scored 70 winners (45%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Keys | Vekic |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 8 | 7 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 3.5 |
| 1st in | 97/143 | 96/170 |
| %1st in | 68% | 56% |
| 1st pts | 62/97 | 70/96 |
| %1st pts | 64% | 73% |
| 2nd pts | 26/46 | 41/74 |
| %2nd pts | 57% | 55% |
Keys managed to score 8 aces (4 per match). Vekic bagged 7 aces (3.5 per match). Keys won 64% points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Vekic won 73% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Keys | Vekic |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 9 | 5 |
| Converted | 9/15 | 5/12 |
| % Converted | 60% | 42% |
| Conceded | 14 | 10 |
| Saved | 9 | 9 |
| % Saved | 64% | 90% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 1 |
Madison broke her opponents 9 times with a 60% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 5 times and she saved 64% of the break points that she conceded. Donna broke her opponents 5 times with a 42% conversion rate. Donna conceded her serve once and she saved 90% of the break points that she conceded.
| Keys | ||||
| R2 Bronzetti |
R3 Kalinskaya |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 7-5 7-63 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 25 | 44 | |
| pts | 64-49 | 87-78 | 151-127 | |
| Total points | 113 | 165 | 278 | |
| Winners | 21 | 41 | 62 | |
| %Winners | 33% | 47% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 31/47 | 66/96 | 97/143 | |
| % 1st in | 66% | 69% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 21/31 | 41/66 | 62/97 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 62% | 64% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/16 | 16/30 | 26/46 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 53% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
| Converted | 5/11 | 4/4 | 9/15 | |
| Converted % | 45% | 100% | 60% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 12 | 14 | |
| Saved | 0/2 | 9/12 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 75% | 38% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Vekic | ||||
| R2 Baptiste |
R3 Navarro |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 4-6 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 27 | 46 | |
| pts | 68-59 | 88-83 | 156-142 | |
| Total points | 127 | 171 | 298 | |
| Winners | 24 | 46 | 70 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 52% | 45% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 1 | 6 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 4 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 33/71 | 63/99 | 96/170 | |
| % 1st in | 46% | 64% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 24/33 | 46/63 | 70/96 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 73% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 24/38 | 17/36 | 41/74 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 47% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Converted | 2/5 | 3/7 | 5/12 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 43% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 4 | 10 | |
| Saved | 6/6 | 3/4 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 75% | 88% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWLWLWLW
LWWLLLWWLL Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Yuliia StarodubtsevaStarodubtseva (6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Cori GauffGauff – Belinda BencicBencic (6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Peyton StearnsStearns (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (1-4) – H2H and prediction
- Moyuka UchijimaUchijima – Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Maria SakkariSakkari (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – Donna VekicVekic (3-1) – H2H and prediction
