Gabriel Diallo and Cameron Norrie will face off in the 3^rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 1:00 pm on COURT 4. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Cameron Norrie who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Cameron Norrie is the pick to win this match.
Cameron Norrie -> 1.61
Gabriel Diallo -> 2.32

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Gabriel Diallo vs. Cameron Norrie

There is no head to head record between Gabriel Diallo and Cameron Norrie since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.

Gabriel Diallo

Ranked no. 78 (career-high), Gabriel reached the 3^rd round after beating Nicolas Moreno De Alboran 6-3 6-3, Borna Coric 6-3 7-6(6), Zizou Bergs 6-1 6-2 and Kamil Majchrzak 7-5 4-6 6-4.

In the 2^nd round, Diallo defeated Majchrzak (7-5 4-6 6-4). During the match, Diallo scored 101 points vs Majchrzak’s 91. Diallo was pretty aggressive to blast 49 winners.

Talking about the service games, Diallo managed to score 10 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Overall, Gabriel Diallo was quite effective on serve to win 74% (49/66) of his 1st serve and 61% (17/28) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Gabriel broke Majchrzak 3 times after converting 30% of his break points (3/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Diallo started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has lost 1 set in this competition to win 57% of the points he played.

Diallo has a solid match record in the last 7 years having won 63% of his matches (149-89). 5-4 on clay in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Diallo has an overall14-12 match record in the last 7 years on clay.

Diallo has a compiled 16-13 win-loss record in 2025, 5-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

The Canadian has never competed in this tournament before.

Cameron Norrie

Ranked no. 91, the Brit reached the 3^rd round after defeating Martin Landaluce 6-7(4) 7-5 6-4 and Jiri Lehecka 2-6 6-4 6-0.

In the 2^nd round against Lehecka, Norrie recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-4 6-0). During the match Norrie scored 75 points vs Lehecka’s 64. Cameron was extremely aggressive to blast 35 winners.

Talking about serving, Norrie blasted 4 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Cameron Norrie lost the serve twice and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Norrie put 64% of his first serves in, winning 74% (35/47) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (13/26) on the 2nd serve. The Brit broke Lehecka 4 times after converting 57% of his break points (4/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Brit has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

Cameron has a composed 11-11 win-loss record in 2025, 4-2 on clay (See FULL STATS)

.

Previously in Madrid

Previously, his best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2022, 2023 and 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Diallo	Norrie
Match played	3	2
Tot Set	7	6
Tot Games	65	59
Pts	212-161	191-171
Total Points	373	362
Winners	93	87
%Winners	44%	46%

Diallo played 3 matches while Norrie competed in 2 matches. Diallo started his run from the qualifications while Norrie had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Gabriel Diallo dropped 1 set, while Cameron Norrie conceded 2 sets. Diallo has played 1 set more than Norrie (7 vs 6). Therefore, Diallo played 6 games more than Norrie. The Canadian scored 93 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, Norrie blasted 87 winners (46%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Diallo	Norrie
Aces	23	11
Avg per match	7.7	5.5
1st in	122/182	126/187
%1st in	67%	67%
1st pts	93/122	87/126
%1st pts	76%	69%
2nd pts	43/60	32/61
%2nd pts	72%	52%

Diallo blasted 23 aces (7.7 per match). Norrie made 11 aces (5.5 per match). Diallo won 76% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 72% of the points. On the other side, Norrie won 69% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 52% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Diallo	Norrie
Won	10	9
Converted	10/21	9/17
% Converted	48%	53%
Conceded	4	14
Saved	2	9
% Saved	50%	64%
Times Broken	2	5

The Canadian broke his opponents 10 times with a 48% conversion rate. Gabriel surrendered his serve twice and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. Norrie broke his opponents 9 times with a 53% conversion rate. Norrie conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded.

Diallo
	Q1 Moreno De Alboran	Q3 Coric	R1 Bergs	R2 Majchrzak	Total
Score	6-3 6-3	6-3 7-66	6-1 6-2	7-5 4-6 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	2	3	9
Tot Games	18	22	15	32	87
pts	60-46	–	51-24	101-91	212-161
Total points	106	0	75	192	373
Winners	26		18	49	93
%Winners	43%	0%	35%	49%	44%
SERVE
Aces	9	0	4	10	23
Double Faults	1		0	5	6
1st in	35/51	/	21/37	66/94	122/182
% 1st in	69%	0%	57%	70%	67%
1st pts	26/35	/	18/21	49/66	93/122
% 1st pts	74%	0%	86%	74%	76%
2nd pts	12/16	/	14/16	17/28	43/60
% 2nd pts	75%	0%	88%	61%	72%
Breaks
Won	3		4	3	10
Converted	3/7	/	4/4	3/10	10/21
Converted %	43%	0%	100%	30%	48%
Conceded	1		0	3	4
Saved	1/1	0/	0/0	1/3	2
Saved %	100%	–	–	33%	33%
Times Broken	0		0	2	2

Norrie
	R1 Landaluce	R2 Lehecka	Total
Score	6-74 7-5 6-4	2-6 6-4 6-0
Tot Set	3	3	6
Tot Games	35	24	59
pts	116-107	75-64	191-171
Total points	223	139	362
Winners	52	35	87
%Winners	45%	47%	46%
SERVE
Aces	7	4	11
Double Faults	4	1	5
1st in	79/114	47/73	126/187
% 1st in	69%	64%	67%
1st pts	52/79	35/47	87/126
% 1st pts	66%	74%	69%
2nd pts	19/35	13/26	32/61
% 2nd pts	54%	50%	52%
Breaks
Won	5	4	9
Converted	5/10	4/7	9/17
Converted %	50%	57%	53%
Conceded	10	4	14
Saved	7/10	2/4	9
Saved %	70%	50%	30%
Times Broken	3	2	5

Tennis Scores in Madrid

• Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Damir DzumhurDzumhur (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (2-6 7-6³ 7-6⁰) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Taylor FritzFritz – Benjamin BonziBonzi (4-6 7-5 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Alexander BublikBublik – Andrey RublevRublev (6-4 0-6 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Flavio CobolliCobolli (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo (6-2 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jakub MensikMensik – Ben SheltonShelton (6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Casper RuudRuud – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Francisco ComesanaComesana (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Jacob FearnleyFearnley (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Tommy PaulPaul (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Cameron NorrieNorrie – Gabriel DialloDiallo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Casper RuudRuud (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Alexandre MullerMuller (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (5-1) – H2H and prediction
• Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (4-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jack DraperDraper – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (2-0) – H2H and prediction