Grigor Dimitrov and Jacob Fearnley will face off in the 3rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 1:00 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Grigor Dimitrov who should win in 2 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Grigor Dimitrov is the pick to win this match.
Grigor Dimitrov -> 1.32
Jacob Fearnley -> 3.38

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Prediction and head to head Grigor Dimitrov vs. Jacob Fearnley

There is no head to head record between Grigor Dimitrov and Jacob Fearnley since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.

Grigor Dimitrov

Grigor Dimitrov

13 - 7win/loss

Hard
9-6
I Hard
0-0
Clay
4-1
Rank
17
High
3
LLWWLWWWLW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 14-9 9-6 5-3 0-0 0-0 0-0
2024 46-18 21-7 8-4 13-5 4-2 0-0
2023 43-21 16-10 10-5 10-4 7-2 0-0
2022 26-22 10-11 10-5 5-4 1-2 0-0
2021 24-18 18-10 3-5 2-2 1-1 0-0

Ranked no. 16, Grigor reached the 3rd round after beating Nicolas Jarry 6-3 6-4.

In the 2nd round, Dimitrov had a good straight sets win against Jarry (6-3 6-4). During the match, Dimitrov scored 72 points vs Jarry’s 60. The Bulgarian was extremely aggressive to blast 23 winners.

Regarding the service games, Dimitrov bagged 4 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Grigor Dimitrov was exceptionally effective on serve to win 74% (23/31) of his 1st serve and 67% (22/33) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Bulgarian broke Jarry twice after converting 40% of his break points (2/5).

Dimitrov has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 63% of his matches (307-182). 4-1 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Dimitrov has an overall 63-43 record in the last years on clay.

The Bulgarian’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Brisbane and Miami.

Dimitrov has a compiled 13-7 win-loss record in 2025, 4-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Madrid
Dimitrov's Record

Jacob Fearnley

Jacob Fearnley

18 - 9win/loss

Hard
9-5
I Hard
3-2
Clay
6-2
Rank
55
High
54
LWLWLWWWWL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 20-12 9-5 8-5 3-2 0-0 0-0
2024 45-9 10-2 0-0 26-4 9-3 0-0
2023 17-4 0-0 0-0 16-2 1-2 0-0
2022 0-1 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
2021 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 68 (career-high), the Brit reached the 3rd round after beating Pavel Kotov 4-6 6-4 6-1, Hugo Dellien 7-5 6-1, Bu Yunchaokete 6-3 7-6(2) and Tomas Machac 1-6 6-3 6-2.

In the 2nd round against Machac, Jacob recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 6-3 6-2). During the match Fearnley scored 84 points vs Machac’s 80. The Brit was extremely aggressive to blast 36 winners.

About the serving games, Fearnley bagged 9 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Jacob Fearnley lost the serve twice and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Fearnley put 59% of his first serves in, winning 78% (36/46) of the points behind his 1st serve and 44% (14/32) on the 2nd serve. Fearnley broke Machac 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Fearnley started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

Fearnley’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in the Canberra Challenger.

Fearnley has an overall 18-9 win-loss record in 2025, 6-2 on clay (See FULL STATS)

.

Previously in Madrid

Fearnley has never competed in this tournament before.

Madrid
Fearnley's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

G.Dimitrov
J.Fearnley
1h:37
1h:37
Time on court​
!
7h:04
7h:04
1h:37
1h:37
Last match​
1h:44
1h:44
1
1
Match played
!
4
4
19
19
Games Played​
92
92
2
2
Set played​​
10
10
72
72
Total points​
319
319
72
72
Avg point​
79.8
79.8
23
23
Winners
128
128
23
23
Avg Winners​
32
32
32%
32%
Ratio winners
40%
40%
-- Serve --
4
4
Aces
23
23
4
4
Avg Aces
5.8
5.8
4
4
Double Faults
9
9
4
4
Avg Double Faults
2.3
2.3
23/31
23/31
1st won total​
128/171
128/171
!
74%
74%
1st won %
!
75%
75%
22/33
22/33
2nd won total​
62/120
62/120
!
67%
67%
2nd won %
52%
52%
-- Break Points --
2/5
2/5
BP won
16/32
16/32
2/5
2/5
Avg BP won
4/8
4/8
40%
40%
Won
50%
50%
5
5
Conceded
16
16
5
5
Avg Conceded
4
4
0
0
Broken
6
6
!
0
0
Avg Broken
1.5
1.5
5
5
Saved
10
10

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Dimitrov Fearnley
Match played 1 4
Tot Set 2 10
Tot Games 19 92
Pts 72-60 319-275
Total Points 132 594
Winners 23 128
%Winners 32% 40%

Dimitrov played 1 match while Fearnley competed in 4 matches. Fearnley started his run from the qualifications while Dimitrov had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Jacob Fearnley conceded 2 sets while Grigor Dimitrov hasn’t lost a set so far. Dimitrov has played 8 set(s) less than Fearnley (2 vs 10). Therefore, Dimitrov played 73 games less than Fearnley. The Bulgarian scored 23 winners (32% of the total points). On the other side, The Brit managed to score 128 winners (40%).

Serve Performance

Serve Dimitrov Fearnley
Aces 4 23
Avg per match 4 5.8
1st in 31/64 171/291
%1st in 48% 59%
1st pts 23/31 128/171
%1st pts 74% 75%
2nd pts 22/33 62/120
%2nd pts 67% 52%

Dimitrov fired 4 aces . Fearnley bagged 23 aces (5.8 per match). Dimitrov won 74% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 67% of the points. On the other side, Fearnley won 75% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 52% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Dimitrov Fearnley
Won 2 16
Converted 2/5 16/32
% Converted 40% 50%
Conceded 5 16
Saved 5 10
% Saved 100% 63%
Times Broken 0 6

The Bulgarian broke his opponent twice with a 40% conversion rate. The Bulgarian extremely effective on his serve as he has never surrendered a single service game after saving 5 break points. Fearnley broke his opponents 16 times with a 50% conversion rate. Jacob conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded.

Dimitrov
R2
Jarry
Total
Score 6-3 6-4
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 19 19
pts 72-60 72-60
Total points 132 132
Winners 23 23
%Winners 32% 32%
SERVE
Aces 4 4
Double Faults 4 4
1st in 31/64 31/64
% 1st in 48% 48%
1st pts 23/31 23/31
% 1st pts 74% 74%
2nd pts 22/33 22/33
% 2nd pts 67% 67%
Breaks
Won 2 2
Converted 2/5 2/5
Converted % 40% 40%
Conceded 5 5
Saved 5/5 5
Saved % 100% 100%
Times Broken 0 0
Fearnley
Q1
Kotov
Q3
Dellien
R1
Yunchaokete
R2
Machac
Total
Score 4-6 6-4 6-1 7-5 6-1 6-3 7-62 1-6 6-3 6-2
Tot Set 3 2 2 3 10
Tot Games 27 19 22 24 92
pts 87-79 72-57 76-59 84-80 319-275
Total points 166 129 135 164 594
Winners 33 30 29 36 128
%Winners 38% 42% 38% 43% 40%
SERVE
Aces 3 5 6 9 23
Double Faults 1 2 3 3 9
1st in 47/82 43/71 35/60 46/78 171/291
% 1st in 57% 61% 58% 59% 59%
1st pts 33/47 30/43 29/35 36/46 128/171
% 1st pts 70% 70% 83% 78% 75%
2nd pts 20/35 13/28 15/25 14/32 62/120
% 2nd pts 57% 46% 60% 44% 52%
Breaks
Won 5 5 3 3 16
Converted 5/8 5/10 3/7 3/7 16/32
Converted % 63% 50% 43% 43% 50%
Conceded 3 5 3 5 16
Saved 1/3 4/5 2/3 3/5 10
Saved % 33% 80% 67% 60% 240%
Times Broken 2 1 1 2 6

Tennis Scores in Madrid

Upcoming matches in the draw