Alex De Minaur and Denis Shapovalov will face off in the 3^rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 6^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 11:00 am on ARANTXA SANCHEZ STADIUM. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex De Minaur who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Alex De Minaur is the pick to win this match.
Alex De Minaur -> 1.36
Denis Shapovalov -> 3.14

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Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Denis Shapovalov

This will be the 6^th time that Alex De Minaur and Denis Shapovalov clash against each other. The head to head is 4-1 for De Minaur (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.

The last time that they competed against each other, De Minaur won 6-2 7-6(4) in the quarter in Stockholm back in 2022.

Highlights Alex De Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov – Stockholm 21-October-2022

Alex De Minaur

Ranked no. 7, the Australian got to the 3^rd round after beating Lorenzo Sonego 6-2 6-3.

In the 2^nd round, De Minaur had a good straight sets win against Sonego (6-2 6-3). During the match, De Minaur scored 59 points vs Sonego’s 33. De Minaur was pretty aggressive to blast 23 winners.

Talking about the service games, De Minaur scored just 1 ace during the match and he was pretty steady in conceding no double faults. Overall, Alex De Minaur was pretty efficient on serve to win 82% (23/28) of his 1st serve and 92% (11/12) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. De Minaur broke Sonego 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).

De Minaur has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (382-213). 6-2 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, De Minaur has an aggregate 65-50 win-loss record in the last years on clay.

De Minaur’s best result of the season was getting to the final in Rotterdam.

De Minaur has an overall 23-8 win-loss record in 2025, 6-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Denis Shapovalov

Ranked no. 30, Shapovalov reached the 3^rd round after beating Kei Nishikori 6-1 6-4.

In the 2^nd round, Shapovalov had a good straight sets win against Nishikori (6-1 6-4). During the match Shapovalov scored 55 points vs Nishikori’s 36. Shapovalov was exceptionally aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Talking about serving, Shapovalov bagged 4 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Denis Shapovalov was extremely effective on serve to win 83% (25/30) of his 1st serve and 65% (13/20) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Denis broke Nishikori 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).

His best result of the year was conquering the title in Dallas where he defeated Casper Ruud in the final 7-6(5) 6-3.

Shapovalov has a composed 13-8 win-loss record in 2025, 1-2 on clay (See FULL STATS)

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Previously in Madrid

Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2018. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	De Minaur	Shapovalov
Match played	1	1
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	17	17
Pts	59-33	55-36
Total Points	92	91
Winners	23	25
%Winners	39%	45%

Both De Minaur and Shapovalov played 1 match. Both players have not conceded a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, De Minaur and Shapovalov have played the same amount of sets 2. They also played the same amount of games (17). Alex scored 23 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, The Canadian struck 25 winners (45%).

Serve Performance

Serve	De Minaur	Shapovalov
Aces	1	4
Avg per match	1	4
1st in	28/40	30/50
%1st in	70%	60%
1st pts	23/28	25/30
%1st pts	82%	83%
2nd pts	11/12	13/20
%2nd pts	92%	65%

De Minaur recorded 1 ace . Shapovalov also scored 4 aces . De Minaur won 82% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 92% of the points. On the other side, Shapovalov won 83% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 65% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	De Minaur	Shapovalov
Won	4	3
Converted	4/6	3/6
% Converted	67%	50%
Conceded	2	1
Saved	1	1
% Saved	50%	100%
Times Broken	1	0

Alex broke his opponent 4 times with a 67% conversion rate. Alex lost his serve once and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. Denis broke his opponent 3 times with a 50% conversion rate. Denis was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 1 break points.

De Minaur
	R2 Sonego	Total
Score	6-2 6-3
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	17	17
pts	59-33	59-33
Total points	92	92
Winners	23	23
%Winners	39%	39%
SERVE
Aces	1	1
Double Faults	0	0
1st in	28/40	28/40
% 1st in	70%	70%
1st pts	23/28	23/28
% 1st pts	82%	82%
2nd pts	11/12	11/12
% 2nd pts	92%	92%
Breaks
Won	4	4
Converted	4/6	4/6
Converted %	67%	67%
Conceded	2	2
Saved	1/2	1
Saved %	50%	50%
Times Broken	1	1

Shapovalov
	R2 Nishikori	Total
Score	6-1 6-4
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	17	17
pts	55-36	55-36
Total points	91	91
Winners	25	25
%Winners	45%	45%
SERVE
Aces	4	4
Double Faults	1	1
1st in	30/50	30/50
% 1st in	60%	60%
1st pts	25/30	25/30
% 1st pts	83%	83%
2nd pts	13/20	13/20
% 2nd pts	65%	65%
Breaks
Won	3	3
Converted	3/6	3/6
Converted %	50%	50%
Conceded	1	1
Saved	1/1	1
Saved %	100%	100%
Times Broken	0	0

Tennis Scores in Madrid

• Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Damir DzumhurDzumhur (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Casper RuudRuud – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Francisco ComesanaComesana (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (2-6 7-6³ 7-6⁰) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Taylor FritzFritz – Benjamin BonziBonzi (4-6 7-5 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Alexander BublikBublik – Andrey RublevRublev (6-4 0-6 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Flavio CobolliCobolli (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo (6-2 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jakub MensikMensik – Ben SheltonShelton (6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Jacob FearnleyFearnley (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Tommy PaulPaul (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Cameron NorrieNorrie – Gabriel DialloDiallo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Casper RuudRuud (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Alexandre MullerMuller (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (5-1) – H2H and prediction
• Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (4-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jack DraperDraper – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (2-0) – H2H and prediction