Matteo Arnaldi and Damir Dzumhur will clash against each other in the 3rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 11:00 am on COURT 4. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Matteo Arnaldi who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Matteo Arnaldi is the pick to win this match.
Matteo Arnaldi -> 1.31
Damir Dzumhur -> 3.45

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Prediction and head to head Matteo Arnaldi vs. Damir Dzumhur

There is no head to head record between Matteo Arnaldi and Damir Dzumhur since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.

Matteo Arnaldi

Matteo Arnaldi

10 - 9win/loss

Hard
6-6
I Hard
2-1
Clay
2-2
Rank
62
High
30
LLWWWLLWLW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 23-26 11-14 7-6 5-4 0-2 0-0
2024 29-26 17-13 10-9 1-2 1-2 0-0
2023 51-26 21-15 23-7 4-3 3-1 0-0
2022 50-35 9-3 37-20 4-11 0-1 0-0
2021 56-24 2-1 51-18 3-5 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 44, the Italian got to the 3rd round after defeating Borna Coric 4-6 6-4 7-5 and Novak Djokovic 6-3 6-4.

In the 2nd round, Matteo had a good straight sets win against Djokovic (6-3 6-4). During the match, Arnaldi scored 67 points vs Djokovic’s 60. Matteo was quite aggressive to blast 29 winners.

Talking about the service games, Arnaldi fired 5 aces and he was pretty consistent in conceding no double faults. Overall, Matteo Arnaldi was pretty efficient on serve to win 71% (29/41) of his 1st serve and 52% (17/33) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Matteo was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Djokovic 3 times.

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to win 52% of the points he played.

Arnaldi has a solid match record in the last 8 years having won 61% of his matches (226-143). 2-2 on clay in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Arnaldi has a composed127-66 match record in the last 8 years on clay.

Arnaldi’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in Delray Beach.

The Italian has an aggregate 10-9 win-loss record in 2025, 2-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Madrid
Arnaldi's Record

Damir Dzumhur

Damir Dzumhur

23 - 13win/loss

Hard
8-5
I Hard
2-0
Clay
13-8
Rank
57
High
23
LWLWWLWWLW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 38-34 9-11 21-16 8-4 0-3 0-0
2024 47-30 11-13 28-7 6-7 2-3 0-0
2023 41-34 15-5 18-18 8-9 0-1 0-1
2022 34-28 5-5 19-12 10-11 0-0 0-0
2021 32-32 6-6 17-17 6-6 3-3 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 63, the Bosnian reached the 3rd round after beating Mattia Bellucci 4-6 6-4 6-2

and Sebastian Baez 1-6 6-1 6-2.

In the 2nd round against Baez, The Bosnian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 6-1 6-2). During the match Dzumhur scored 77 points vs Baez’s 67. Dzumhur was quite aggressive to blast 30 winners.

About the serving games, Dzumhur scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 5 double faults. Damir Dzumhur lost the serve 3 times and he saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Dzumhur put 63% of his first serves in, winning 67% (30/45) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (13/27) on the 2nd serve. Damir broke Baez 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Dzumhur has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

The Bosnian’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in the Cap Cana Challenger.

Dzumhur has an overall 23-13 win-loss record in 2025, 13-8 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2018. See his history.

Madrid
Dzumhur's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

M.Arnaldi
D.Dzumhur
4h:28
4h:28
Time on court​
4h:12
4h:12
1h:41
1h:41
Last match​
1h:38
1h:38
2
2
Match played
2
2
51
51
Games Played​
50
50
5
5
Set played​​
6
6
170
170
Total points​
176
176
85
85
Avg point​
88
88
65
65
Winners
72
72
32.5
32.5
Avg Winners​
36
36
38%
38%
Ratio winners
41%
41%
-- Serve --
18
18
Aces
1
1
9
9
Avg Aces
0.5
0.5
4
4
Double Faults
7
7
2
2
Avg Double Faults
3.5
3.5
65/90
65/90
1st won total​
72/112
72/112
!
72%
72%
1st won %
64%
64%
44/81
44/81
2nd won total​
29/52
29/52
54%
54%
2nd won %
56%
56%
-- Break Points --
6/9
6/9
BP won
9/21
9/21
3/4.5
3/4.5
Avg BP won
4.5/10.5
4.5/10.5
!
67%
67%
Won
43%
43%
13
13
Conceded
23
23
6.5
6.5
Avg Conceded
11.5
11.5
3
3
Broken
5
5
1.5
1.5
Avg Broken
2.5
2.5
10
10
Saved
18
18
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Arnaldi Dzumhur
Match played 2 2
Tot Set 5 6
Tot Games 51 50
Pts 170-160 176-155
Total Points 330 331
Winners 65 72
%Winners 38% 41%

Both Arnaldi and Dzumhur played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Matteo Arnaldi dropped 1 set, while Damir Dzumhur lost 2 sets. Arnaldi has played 1 set(s) less than Dzumhur (5 vs 6). However, it’s interesting to notice that Arnaldi played 1 game more than Dzumhur. The Italian scored 65 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Damir blasted 72 winners (41%).

Serve Performance

Serve Arnaldi Dzumhur
Aces 18 1
Avg per match 9 0.5
1st in 90/171 112/164
%1st in 53% 68%
1st pts 65/90 72/112
%1st pts 72% 64%
2nd pts 44/81 29/52
%2nd pts 54% 56%

Arnaldi made 18 aces (9 per match). Dzumhur struck 1 ace (0.5 per match). Arnaldi won 72% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Dzumhur won 64% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Arnaldi Dzumhur
Won 6 9
Converted 6/9 9/21
% Converted 67% 43%
Conceded 13 23
Saved 10 18
% Saved 77% 78%
Times Broken 3 5

Arnaldi broke his opponents 6 times with a 67% conversion rate. The Italian surrendered his serve 3 times and he saved 77% of the break points that he conceded. Damir broke his opponents 9 times with a 43% conversion rate. The Bosnian conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 78% of the break points that he conceded.

Arnaldi
R1
Coric		 R2
Djokovic		 Total
Score 4-6 6-4 7-5 6-3 6-4
Tot Set 3 2 5
Tot Games 32 19 51
pts 103-100 67-60 170-160
Total points 203 127 330
Winners 36 29 65
%Winners 35% 43% 38%
SERVE
Aces 13 5 18
Double Faults 4 0 4
1st in 49/97 41/74 90/171
% 1st in 51% 55% 53%
1st pts 36/49 29/41 65/90
% 1st pts 73% 71% 72%
2nd pts 27/48 17/33 44/81
% 2nd pts 56% 52% 54%
Breaks
Won 3 3 6
Converted 3/6 3/3 6/9
Converted % 50% 100% 67%
Conceded 8 5 13
Saved 6/8 4/5 10
Saved % 75% 80% 78%
Times Broken 2 1 3
Dzumhur
R1
Bellucci		 R2
Baez		 Total
Score 4-6 6-4 6-2 1-6 6-1 6-2
Tot Set 3 3 6
Tot Games 28 22 50
pts 99-88 77-67 176-155
Total points 187 144 331
Winners 42 30 72
%Winners 42% 39% 41%
SERVE
Aces 0 1 1
Double Faults 2 5 7
1st in 67/92 45/72 112/164
% 1st in 73% 63% 68%
1st pts 42/67 30/45 72/112
% 1st pts 63% 67% 64%
2nd pts 16/25 13/27 29/52
% 2nd pts 64% 48% 56%
Breaks
Won 4 5 9
Converted 4/11 5/10 9/21
Converted % 36% 50% 43%
Conceded 11 12 23
Saved 9/11 9/12 18
Saved % 82% 75% 79%
Times Broken 2 3 5

Tennis Scores in Madrid

Upcoming matches in the draw

Arnaldi
More Stats
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Dzumhur

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