Tommy Paul and Karen Khachanov will face off in the 3rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 11:00 am on STADIUM 3. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Tommy Paul who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Tommy Paul is the pick to win this match.
Tommy Paul -> 1.67
Karen Khachanov -> 2.2
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Prediction and head to head Tommy Paul vs. Karen Khachanov
This will be the 2nd time that Tommy Paul and Karen Khachanov square off. The head to head is 1-0 for Paul (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.
The last time that they competed against each other, Paul won 6-4 3-6 7-6(3) in the 2nd round in Miami back in 2022.
Tommy Paul
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22-8 | 10-4 | 9-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-20 | 17-12 | 10-4 | 8-2 | 10-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-29 | 29-13 | 5-6 | 3-5 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-27 | 21-12 | 2-6 | 9-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 12-12 | 9-7 | 12-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 12, Paul got to the 3rd round after beating Joao Fonseca 7-6(7) 7-6(3).
In the 2nd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Fonseca (7-67 7-63). During the match, Paul scored 97 points vs Fonseca’s 94. Tommy was exceptionally aggressive to blast 51 winners.
Regarding the service games, Paul blasted 9 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Tommy Paul lost the serve once and he saved 10 break points. Furthermore, Paul put 68% of his first serves in, winning 74% (51/69) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (16/33) on the 2nd serve. The American was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Fonseca once.
Paul has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (361-207). 3-1 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Paul has an aggregate 82-49 win-loss record in the last years on clay.
The American’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in Adelaide, Dallas and Houston.
The American has an overall 16-6 win-loss record in 2025, 3-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Karen Khachanov
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12-12 | 5-6 | 7-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 37-22 | 14-12 | 8-4 | 14-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 34-18 | 18-10 | 10-5 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 36-25 | 17-11 | 9-7 | 6-5 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 35-24 | 17-9 | 5-6 | 8-6 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 25, the Russian got to the 3rd round after beating Reilly Opelka 7-6(3) 7-6(4).
In the 2nd round, Khachanov had a good straight sets win against Opelka (7-63 7-64). During the match Khachanov scored 87 points vs Opelka’s 68. Karen was quite aggressive to blast 40 winners.
About the serving games, Khachanov scored 6 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Karen Khachanov was quite effective on serve to win 91% (40/44) of his 1st serve and 68% (15/22) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match.
Karen’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Barcelona.
Karen has an aggregate 9-9 win-loss record in 2025, 4-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Paul | Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 26 | 26 |
| Pts | 97-94 | 87-68 |
| Total Points | 191 | 155 |
| Winners | 51 | 40 |
| %Winners | 53% | 46% |
Both Paul and Khachanov played 1 match. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Paul and Khachanov have played the same amount of sets 2. They also played the same amount of games (26). Tommy scored 51 winners (53% of the total points). On the other side, The Russian struck 40 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Paul | Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 9 | 6 |
| Avg per match | 9 | 6 |
| 1st in | 69/102 | 44/66 |
| %1st in | 68% | 67% |
| 1st pts | 51/69 | 40/44 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 91% |
| 2nd pts | 16/33 | 15/22 |
| %2nd pts | 48% | 68% |
Paul managed to score 9 aces . Khachanov struck 6 aces . Paul won 74% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 48% of the points. On the other side, Khachanov won 91% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 68% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Paul | Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 1 | 0 |
| Converted | 1/1 | 0/4 |
| % Converted | 100% | 0% |
| Conceded | 11 | 0 |
| Saved | 10 | 0 |
| % Saved | 91% | 0% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 |
Paul broke his opponent once with a 100% conversion rate. The American surrendered his serve once and he saved 91% of the break points that he conceded. On the other side, Khachanov hasn’t manged yet to break his opponent. He didn’t manage to even clinch a single break point. Khachanov was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 0 break points without even conceding a single break point.
| Paul | |||
| R2 Fonseca |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-67 7-63 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 26 | |
| pts | 97-94 | 97-94 | |
| Total points | 191 | 191 | |
| Winners | 51 | 51 | |
| %Winners | 53% | 53% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 9 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 69/102 | 69/102 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 51/69 | 51/69 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/33 | 16/33 | |
| % 2nd pts | 48% | 48% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 1 | 1 | |
| Converted | 1/1 | 1/1 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 100% | |
| Conceded | 11 | 11 | |
| Saved | 10/11 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 91% | 91% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
| Khachanov | |||
| R2 Opelka |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-63 7-64 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 26 | |
| pts | 87-68 | 87-68 | |
| Total points | 155 | 155 | |
| Winners | 40 | 40 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 46% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 6 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 44/66 | 44/66 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 40/44 | 40/44 | |
| % 1st pts | 91% | 91% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/22 | 15/22 | |
| % 2nd pts | 68% | 68% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 0 | 0 | |
| Converted | 0/4 | 0/4 | |
| Converted % | 0% | 0% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 0 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 0 | |
| Saved % | – | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
Head 2 Head
WLWWWWLWWL
LWLWWLWLWW Tennis Scores in Madrid
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- Taylor FritzFritz – Benjamin BonziBonzi (4-6 7-5 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alexander BublikBublik – Andrey RublevRublev (6-4 0-6 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Flavio CobolliCobolli (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo (6-2 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jakub MensikMensik – Ben SheltonShelton (6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Casper RuudRuud – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Francisco ComesanaComesana (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Jacob FearnleyFearnley (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Tommy PaulPaul (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Gabriel DialloDiallo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Casper RuudRuud (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Alexandre MullerMuller (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (5-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (4-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jack DraperDraper – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (2-0) – H2H and prediction
