Jasmine Paolini and Maria Sakkari will face off in the 3rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 1:00 pm on ARANTXA SANCHEZ STADIUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jasmine Paolini who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jasmine Paolini is the pick to win this match.
Jasmine Paolini -> 1.27
Maria Sakkari -> 3.76
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Prediction and head to head Jasmine Paolini vs. Maria Sakkari
This will be the 3rd time that Jasmine Paolini and Maria Sakkari play each other. The head to head is 1-1 (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they locked horns, Paolini won 6-4 6-2 in the 3rd round in Dubai back in 2024.
Highlights Jasmine Paolini vs Maria Sakkari – Dubai 21-February-2024
Jasmine Paolini
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16-8 | 12-6 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 42-21 | 19-10 | 12-5 | 3-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-30 | 20-16 | 16-8 | 5-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-25 | 14-11 | 10-10 | 6-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 34-24 | 17-13 | 12-7 | 5-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6, Jasmine got to the 3rd round after defeating Unknown Player bye and Katie Boulter 6-1 6-2.
In the 2nd round, Jasmine had a good straight sets win against Boulter (6-1 6-2). During the match, Paolini scored 56 points vs Boulter’s 28. The Italian was pretty aggressive to blast 22 winners.
Regarding the service games, Paolini scored just 1 ace in the match and she committed only 2 double faults. Jasmine Paolini lost the serve twice and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Paolini put 69% of her first serves in, winning 67% (22/33) of the points behind her 1st serve and 60% (9/15) on the 2nd serve. Paolini broke Boulter 6 times after converting 86% of her break points (6/7).
Paolini has winning match record in the last 10 years having won 58% of her matches (326-238). 4-1 on clay in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this competition, Paolini has a compiled 159-95 record in the last years on clay.
Jasmine’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in Miami and Stuttgart.
Jasmine has an overall 16-7 win-loss record in 2025, 4-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Maria Sakkari
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10-14 | 5-10 | 4-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 25-17 | 12-8 | 11-6 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 38-25 | 26-17 | 5-4 | 3-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-23 | 21-12 | 8-5 | 4-2 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-20 | 23-13 | 9-4 | 5-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 82, the Greek reached the 3rd round after defeating Xinyu Wang 6-4 7-6(7) and Magda Linette 7-6(5) 6-3.
In the 2nd round, Sakkari had a good straight sets win against Linette (7-65 6-3). During the match Sakkari scored 80 points vs Linette’s 63. Maria was very aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Talking about serving, Sakkari bagged 2 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Maria Sakkari was exceptionally effective on serve to win 84% (31/37) of her 1st serve and 59% (13/22) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Sakkari broke Linette 3 times after converting 33% of her break points (3/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Maria hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
Sakkari has an aggregate 9-13 win-loss record in 2025, 3-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Paolini | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 15 | 45 |
| Pts | 56-28 | 167-146 |
| Total Points | 84 | 313 |
| Winners | 22 | 63 |
| %Winners | 39% | 38% |
Paolini played 1 match while Sakkari competed in 2 matches. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Paolini has played 2 set(s) less than Sakkari (2 vs 4). Therefore, Paolini played 30 games less than Sakkari. The Italian scored 22 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Maria made 63 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Paolini | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 3 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 1.5 |
| 1st in | 33/48 | 82/141 |
| %1st in | 69% | 58% |
| 1st pts | 22/33 | 63/82 |
| %1st pts | 67% | 77% |
| 2nd pts | 9/15 | 30/59 |
| %2nd pts | 60% | 51% |
Paolini bagged 1 ace . Sakkari also recorded 3 aces (1.5 per match). Paolini won 67% points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Sakkari won 77% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Paolini | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 6 |
| Converted | 6/7 | 6/19 |
| % Converted | 86% | 32% |
| Conceded | 4 | 8 |
| Saved | 2 | 5 |
| % Saved | 50% | 63% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 |
Paolini broke her opponent 6 times with a 86% conversion rate. The Italian surrendered her serve twice and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded. Sakkari broke her opponents 6 times with a 32% conversion rate. The Greek conceded her serve 3 times and she saved 63% of the break points that she conceded.
| Paolini | |||
| R2 Boulter |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 15 | |
| pts | 56-28 | 56-28 | |
| Total points | 84 | 84 | |
| Winners | 22 | 22 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 33/48 | 33/48 | |
| % 1st in | 69% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 22/33 | 22/33 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/15 | 9/15 | |
| % 2nd pts | 60% | 60% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 6 | 6 | |
| Converted | 6/7 | 6/7 | |
| Converted % | 86% | 86% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
| Sakkari | ||||
| R1 Wang |
R2 Linette |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-67 | 7-65 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 22 | 45 | |
| pts | 87-83 | 80-63 | 167-146 | |
| Total points | 170 | 143 | 313 | |
| Winners | 32 | 31 | 63 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 39% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 1 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 45/82 | 37/59 | 82/141 | |
| % 1st in | 55% | 63% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 32/45 | 31/37 | 63/82 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 84% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/37 | 13/22 | 30/59 | |
| % 2nd pts | 46% | 59% | 51% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Converted | 3/10 | 3/9 | 6/19 | |
| Converted % | 30% | 33% | 32% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 1 | 8 | |
| Saved | 5/7 | 0/1 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 71% | 0% | 71% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLWWWLWWW
LWWWLLWLWL Tennis Scores in Madrid
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- Madison KeysKeys – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (7-5 7-63) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Belinda BencicBencic – Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia (6-3 4-6 7-62) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Yuliia StarodubtsevaStarodubtseva – Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova (2-6 7-62 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Magdalena FrechFrech (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Elise MertensMertens (9-2) – H2H and prediction
- Rebeka MasarovaMasarova – Peyton StearnsStearns (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Marta KostyukKostyuk (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sofia KeninKenin – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Moyuka UchijimaUchijima (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (2-3) – H2H and prediction
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (3-2) – H2H and prediction
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Donna VekicVekic – Emma NavarroNavarro (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Belinda BencicBencic – Cori GauffGauff (2-2) – H2H and prediction
