Daria Kasatkina and Ekaterina Alexandrova will fight against each other in the 3rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 9:30 pm on ARANTXA SANCHEZ STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Ekaterina Alexandrova who should win in 3 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Ekaterina Alexandrova is the pick to win this match.
Ekaterina Alexandrova -> 1.65
Daria Kasatkina -> 2.24

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Prediction and head to head Daria Kasatkina vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova

This will be the 6th time that Daria Kasatkina and Ekaterina Alexandrova face off. The head to head is 3-2 for Kasatkina (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.

The last time that they locked horns, Kasatkina won 6-4 6-2 in the 1st round in Cincinnati back in 2024.

Highlights Daria Kasatkina vs Ekaterina Alexandrova – Cincinnati 13-August-2024

Daria Kasatkina

Daria Kasatkina

11 - 9win/loss

Hard
9-8
I Hard
0-0
Clay
2-1
Rank
15
High
8
LWLWLLWLLW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 11-10 9-8 2-2 0-0 0-0 0-0
2024 40-23 24-16 8-4 0-1 8-2 0-0
2023 39-25 19-15 12-6 2-1 6-3 0-0
2022 41-22 24-14 12-5 1-1 4-2 0-0
2021 38-19 19-10 5-5 7-1 7-3 0-0

Ranked no. 14, Kasatkina reached the 3rd round after defeating Unknown Player bye and Alycia Parks 6-2 7-5.

In the 2nd round, Kasatkina had a good straight sets win against Parks (6-2 7-5). During the match, Kasatkina scored 73 points vs Parks’s 53. The Australian was very aggressive to blast 21 winners.

Talking about the service games, Kasatkina scored just 1 ace during the encounter and she committed only 2 double faults. Daria Kasatkina lost the serve twice. Furthermore, Kasatkina put 61% of her first serves in, winning 60% (21/35) of the points behind her 1st serve and 68% (15/22) on the 2nd serve. Kasatkina broke Parks 5 times after converting 45% of her break points (5/11).

Kasatkina has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 61% of her matches (310-201). 2-1 on clay in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Kasatkina has an overall 77-44 record in the last years on clay.

The Australian has a composed 11-9 win-loss record in 2025, 2-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Madrid
Kasatkina's Record

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Ekaterina Alexandrova

16 - 9win/loss

Hard
5-7
I Hard
4-0
Clay
7-2
Rank
20
High
15
LWWLWWWLWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 17-10 5-7 8-3 4-0 0-0 0-0
2024 26-25 17-13 1-7 3-2 5-3 0-0
2023 33-21 17-13 6-5 0-1 10-2 0-0
2022 35-18 12-10 13-5 4-2 6-1 0-0
2021 26-23 10-9 6-5 7-7 3-2 0-0

Ranked no. 22, the Russian reached the 3rd round after beating Unknown Player bye and Olga Danilovic 6-3 6-4.

In the 2nd round, Alexandrova had a good straight sets win against Danilovic (6-3 6-4). During the match Alexandrova scored 67 points vs Danilovic’s 57. Alexandrova was exceptionally aggressive to blast 27 winners.

About the serving games, Alexandrova bagged 3 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Ekaterina Alexandrova lost the serve 3 times and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Alexandrova put 63% of her first serves in, winning 66% (27/41) of the points behind her 1st serve and 46% (11/24) on the 2nd serve. Ekaterina broke Danilovic 5 times after converting 56% of her break points (5/9).

Her best result of the season was conquering the title in Linz where she beat Dayana Yastremska in the final 6-2 3-6 7-5.

Alexandrova has a compiled 16-9 win-loss record in 2025, 7-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2022. See her history.

Madrid
Alexandrova's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

D.Kasatkina
E.Alexandrova
1h:31
1h:31
Time on court​
1h:24
1h:24
1h:31
1h:31
Last match​
1h:24
1h:24
1
1
Match played
1
1
20
20
Games Played​
19
19
2
2
Set played​​
2
2
73
73
Total points​
67
67
73
73
Avg point​
67
67
21
21
Winners
27
27
21
21
Avg Winners​
27
27
29%
29%
Ratio winners
40%
40%
-- Serve --
1
1
Aces
3
3
1
1
Avg Aces
3
3
2
2
Double Faults
3
3
2
2
Avg Double Faults
3
3
21/35
21/35
1st won total​
27/41
27/41
60%
60%
1st won %
66%
66%
15/22
15/22
2nd won total​
11/24
11/24
!
68%
68%
2nd won %
46%
46%
-- Break Points --
5/11
5/11
BP won
5/9
5/9
5/11
5/11
Avg BP won
5/9
5/9
45%
45%
Won
!
56%
56%
2
2
Conceded
6
6
2
2
Avg Conceded
6
6
2
2
Broken
3
3
2
2
Avg Broken
3
3
0
0
Saved
3
3

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Kasatkina Alexandrova
Match played 1 1
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 20 19
Pts 73-53 67-57
Total Points 126 124
Winners 21 27
%Winners 29% 40%

Both Kasatkina and Alexandrova played 1 match. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Kasatkina and Alexandrova have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Kasatkina played 1 game more than Alexandrova. Kasatkina scored 21 winners (29% of the total points). On the other side, The Russian managed to score 27 winners (40%).

Serve Performance

Serve Kasatkina Alexandrova
Aces 1 3
Avg per match 1 3
1st in 35/57 41/65
%1st in 61% 63%
1st pts 21/35 27/41
%1st pts 60% 66%
2nd pts 15/22 11/24
%2nd pts 68% 46%

Kasatkina recorded 1 ace . Alexandrova also managed to score 3 aces . Kasatkina won 60% points on her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 68% of the points. On the other side, Alexandrova won 66% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 46% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Kasatkina Alexandrova
Won 5 5
Converted 5/11 5/9
% Converted 45% 56%
Conceded 2 6
Saved 0 3
% Saved 0% 50%
Times Broken 2 3

Darya broke her opponent 5 times with a 45% conversion rate. Darya dropped her serve twice and she saved 0% of the break points that she conceded. Alexandrova broke her opponent 5 times with a 56% conversion rate. Alexandrova conceded her serve 3 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded.

Kasatkina
R2
Parks
Total
Score 6-2 7-5
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 20 20
pts 73-53 73-53
Total points 126 126
Winners 21 21
%Winners 29% 29%
SERVE
Aces 1 1
Double Faults 2 2
1st in 35/57 35/57
% 1st in 61% 61%
1st pts 21/35 21/35
% 1st pts 60% 60%
2nd pts 15/22 15/22
% 2nd pts 68% 68%
Breaks
Won 5 5
Converted 5/11 5/11
Converted % 45% 45%
Conceded 2 2
Saved 0/2 0
Saved % 0% 0%
Times Broken 2 2
Alexandrova
R2
Danilovic
Total
Score 6-3 6-4
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 19 19
pts 67-57 67-57
Total points 124 124
Winners 27 27
%Winners 40% 40%
SERVE
Aces 3 3
Double Faults 3 3
1st in 41/65 41/65
% 1st in 63% 63%
1st pts 27/41 27/41
% 1st pts 66% 66%
2nd pts 11/24 11/24
% 2nd pts 46% 46%
Breaks
Won 5 5
Converted 5/9 5/9
Converted % 56% 56%
Conceded 6 6
Saved 3/6 3
Saved % 50% 50%
Times Broken 3 3

Tennis Scores in Madrid

Upcoming matches in the draw